The NBA rolls on tonight with a sweet spot, six-game slate, with all six games being very close in terms of projected total. Here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
John Wall – WAS vs. DEN – $9,500 – The price is high, but Wall is in one of the best spots of the night overall against the Nuggets, who are bottom five in defense over the last six games and fourth in pace. I don’t think Wall will get to the 75.5 DraftKings Fantasy Points (DKFP) mark he reached on Tuesday, but getting to the 50+ DKFP mark seems extremely feasible in this matchup.
Kyle Lowry – TOR vs. MIN – $8,200 – Minnesota is last in the league over the last six days in defensive rating, and Lowry has been great opposite DeMar DeRozan, scoring at least 42 DKFP in his last five games.
Other Options – Stephen Curry ($8,400), Damian Lillard ($8,300)
Shelvin Mack – UTA vs. GS – $4,100 – This feels like a classic let down spot for the Warriors coming off the destruction of the Clippers in LA. Rodney Hood and George Hill are both out for Utah, leaving the 20+ percent raw usage of Shelvin Mack in position to hit 30 DKFP in this 211 projected game total.
Sergio Rodriguez – PHI vs. NOR – $5,100 – He had a down game in Memphis, but Sergio has had a day off and gets his production buddy, Joel Embiid, back in the lineup. With a solid 205 projected game total and a near 20% raw usage rate, I think Rodriguez is a solid play for 30 DKFP tonight.
Other Options – Patty Mills ($4,700), Ricky Rubio ($4,900)
Bradley Beal – WAS vs. DEN – $6,700 – Beal, like Wall, has been playing a lot of minutes under Scott Brooks, and has a 26% raw usage rate here against the aforementioned lousy defense and fast pace of the Denver Nuggets.
Dwyane Wade – CHI vs. SAS – $6,000 – The Bulls are at home game against the Spurs tonight, who aren’t the defensive backbreakers they were with Tim Duncan. Wade has a very high usage (29%), and he’s averaging 34.1 DKFP on the season.
Other Options – DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), Klay Thompson ($7,000)
Tony Allen – MEM vs. POR – $4,300 – Assuming Vince Carter (questionable) misses again, Allen is good for his usual 30 minutes, 20% raw usage and fantasy point per minute play. He had a down game on the back end of a back-to-back last time out, but I think he should be good to go here.
Troy Daniels – MEM vs. POR – $4,700 – Same caveat as Tony Allen, if Vince Carter is out, Daniels should see between 15-20 shot attempts in a matchup against the fourth worst defense over the last six games. Daniels has scored over 35 DKFP in 2 of his last 3 games.
Other Options – Joe Johnson ($4,400)
Kevin Durant – GSW at UTA – $9,300 – The projected game total is still at a healthy 211, even with the Warrios playing the slow-paced Jazz. Golden State is in a let down spot, but Durant gets more fantasy goodness funneled to him as one of the only two rebounders and the primary scorer.
Kawhi Leonard – SAS at CHI – $7,900 – There are not many places for the fantasy points to go in San Antonio, so if the game is supposed to hit 200 points and the Spurs are four point favorites, it means that Kawhi, and his 28.7% usage will have a lot to do with it.
Other Options – Jimmy Butler ($8,000), Gordon Hayward ($8,600)
Markieff Morris – WAS vs. DEN – $5,100 – Morris is infuriating, but his 20% raw usage and ability to pile up fantasy points quickly with rebounds and steals makes him a favorable value play against a weak defensive team like Denver.
Danilo Gallinari – DEN at WAS – $5,800 – It’s pretty thin at small forward tonight, so I think Gallo, and his nearly guaranteed 30+ minutes (something of an anomaly with coach Michael Malone) is a safe play here in a projected high total game.
Other Options – Nikola Mirotic ($3,900), DeMarre Carroll (if he plays, $4,200)
Anthony Davis – NOR at PHI – $11,800 – He has the highest ceiling on the board today, and he’s in a great spot against the Sixers, who are fifth worst defensively over the last five games. Davis’ usage has been down a little with Jrue Holiday’s presence, but Davis is still over 30 percent and can get a bump here if Holiday and E’Twaun Moore are out tonight (they both missed the Pelican’s previous game).
Draymond Green – GSW at UTA – $7,300- This is a solid cost here for Green, who should be engaged in a closer game in a let down spot for the Warriors in Utah. Green and Durant monopolize the rebounding for the Warriors (both average 8.4 rebounds per game), and I think Green has a 50 DKFP ceiling in this matchup.
Other Options – Wilson Chandler ($6,300)
Terrence Jones – NOR at PHI – $4,600 – Jones has a 20% raw usage off the bench, and I think he has 30 DKFP point upside, especially if Holiday and Moore are out tonight. He scored 23 DKFP against MEM his last time out and 28.25 DKFP against the Clippers last week in his last two extended minutes games.
Dario Saric – PHI vs. NOR – $5,200 – Saric, along with Ersan Ilyasova, have settled into a normal rotation that allows them 25-28 minutes per game regardless of whether Joe Embiid is in the lineup or not. Saric has become a DK point per minute player, giving him close to 30 projected DKFP in this spot.
Other Options – Ersan Ilyasova ($5,700), Gorgui Dieng ($5,500)
Marc Gasol – MEM vs. POR – $7,700 – Gasol has been playing major minutes, including 34 last game with Zach Randolph back in the lineup. Gasol now faces the leaky Portland defense and Mason Plumlee, who will surely put Gasol on the line plenty to pad those scoring numbers.
Rudy Gobert – UTA vs. GSW – $6,700- In his last four meetings against the Warriors, Gobert has played 37.8, 30.1, 37.3 and 33.9 minutes, so he will be on the floor. He rebounded 18, 16, 11 and nine over those four games. One caveat is that the Warriors have had their shots blocked the fewest times per game, which is why Gobert has only averaged one block per game against them over those last four outings.
Other Options – Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,800), Joel Embiid ($7,500)
Marcin Gortat – WAS vs. DEN – $5,800 – Denver’s interior defense is at the core of their terrible overall defensive rating, and Gortat, despite tiny usage, should still be able to excel here. Gortat has been over 30 DKFP in three of his last four games, with one of those games being a 55 DKFP performance against the Spurs.
Jonas Valanciunas – TOR vs. MIN – $4,900 – Jonas is a strong DK point per minutes player, but he is often limited by the lack of overall playing time he receives. He should be stretched more minutes wise to counteract against Karl-Anthony Towns, whose presence should dictate a 32-34 minute outing for Jonas.
Other Options – Pau Gasol ($5,000), Robin Lopez ($4,500), Nikola Jokic ($5,000), Mason Plumlee ($5,200)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.