WATCH: MINUTES REPORT – P.J. TUCKER
The NBA rolls on tonight with a sweet spot six-game slate, with all six games being very close in terms of projected total. Here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
John Wall – WAS vs. ORL – $8,700 – Wall has 27 percent usage over the last six games and gets a home game, where he is better, and has been playing a whopping 39 minutes per game over that six-game stretch. Orlando has been the toughest defensive team over the last six games, but you can still pick the stars to produce against them.
Goran Dragic – MIA vs. NYK – $7,200 – Dragic has been used often over the last six games, taking up 28 percent of possessions. Since Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters and Josh Richardson have been out, that has climbed to almost 30 percent. Richardson is questionable again, but now James Johnson is also out. With the Knicks being a below average defensive team over the last six games, Dragic is in a prime spot again.
Other Options – Rajon Rondo ($6,500)
Ricky Rubio – MIN vs. SAS – $4,700 – Rubio has averaged a DK point per minute against the Spurs over the last few meetings and at his price, a 31 DK point game is completely within reason and would be good tournament value here.
Patty Mills – SAS at MIN – $4,200 – Same as Rubio, Mills is a 0.80 PPM player this season when getting starter’s minutes, but he should get a production bump against Minnesota, which is firmly in the bottom 10 in defense for the season and over the last six games.
Other Options – Elfrid Payton ($4,400), Brandon Knight ($4,600)
Bradley Beal – WAS vs. ORL – $7,000 – Like Wall, Beal is playing a lot of minutes right now and getting 26 percent usage while doing it, so in a weak position above the $6K line today, invest in minute volume here.
Dwyane Wade – CHI at DET – $6,200 – Wade is announced to be playing today on a back-to-back after playing 30 minutes and scoring 50 fantasy points against Portland. Wade’s 27 percent raw usage and likely same amount of playing time puts him squarely in play.
Other Options – Jimmy Butler ($8,900)
Tony Allen – MEM vs. PHI – $3,900 – Allen continues to post solid numbers with all the injuries to the Grizzlies. Cash game playable and drawing a favorable matchup tonight against the 76ers.
Troy Daniels – MEM vs. PHI – $4,700 – Price is rising but he is the one that closed the game last night, not Troy Williams, playing alongside Tony Allen and Andrew Harrison. His usage is solid at around 21 percent and has a nice matchup here against the Sixers, potentially being blowout proof since he’ll likely come off the bench.
Other Options – Zach LaVine ($5,700), Rodney Hood ($5,300)
Kawhi Leonard – SAS at MIN – $7,800 – Kawhi’s usage is still around 29 percent and will be playing heavy minutes against Andrew Wiggins, most likely. Considering Wiggins’ high usage, this will help Kawhi accrue peripheral points.
Carmelo Anthony – NYK at MIA – $7,600 – Not a strong endorsement here, but in the best position of anyone else above the $6K line, especially with James Johnson unavailable for this game. Anthony will get his shots with his raw usage rate of 29 percent and if this game is supposed to be as close as expected, it will be because Carmelo has had a good game.
Other Options – Tobias Harris ($6,000)
Dario Saric – PHI at MEM – $4,900 – Saric has been excellent recently and using about 23 percent of possessions, and will likely be a main point of offense with Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Jerryd Bayless all out tonight.
Josh Richardson – MIA vs. NYK – $4,800 – He’s questionable right now, but with James Johnson, Justise Winslow and Dion Waiters all out, if Richardson goes he should have plenty of minutes and opportunity to get the 30 DK points needed for excellent tourney value.
Other Options – Marcus Morris ($5,100)
LaMarcus Aldridge – SAS at MIN – $6,300 – His 24 percent raw usage sometimes appears to be a mirage, but his price and output, especially in this matchup against the defensively challenged Timberwolves, puts him solidly in play in all formats.
Kristaps Porzingis – NYK at MIA – $8,000 – Few will likely invest here in Porzingis, on the road, with an $8K price tag, but he did better on the road with 50 DK fantasy points in Minnesota and will likely continue to play the high 30s minutes he has been recently, with 35, 40, 39, and 39 over his last four games.
Other Options – Serge Ibaka ($6,300)
Richaun Holmes – PHI at MEM – $3,600 – He burned many, many players in the last short slate he was slated to play, but that was with Jahlil Okafor healthy and Holmes got on a weird rotation where he was behind Okafor, Saric and Ersan Ilyasova. With Memphis likely to dial back Marc Gasol with Zach Randolph more likely to play and Gasol’s 45-minute outing last night, Holmes should see quality time on the floor and get up to the 25-28 DK points he’ll need to make value here.
Josh McRoberts – MIA vs. NYK – $3,200 – McBobs will be an excellent option if Luke Babbitt misses (questionable) with his sore hip. McRoberts has shown a versatile game capable of contributing in all categories.
Other Options – Jon Leuer ($4,500), Ersan Ilyasova ($4,600), Markieff Morris ($5,200)
Hassan Whiteside – MIA vs. NYK – $9,600 – Very hefty price, but Whiteside has the highest ceiling of anyone on the court tonight. He’s playing at home, in one of the highest totals on the slate, and it’ll be Dragic and Whiteside carrying the Heat to that total.
Rudy Gobert – UTA vs. PHO – $6,400 – The Suns get their shots blocked more than any other team in the league this season, and Gobert has been on a blocked shot tear, getting multiple blocks in each of his last 10 games.
Other Options – Nikola Vucevic ($6,100), Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,100)
Joakim Noah – NYK vs. MIA – $3,600 – One of the best DK points per minutes players based on peripherals, the Knicks will need Noah to play closer to his 24-28 minute ceiling tonight against Whiteside.
Bismack Biyombo – ORL at WAS – $4,700 – Marcin Gortat has not performed well against the Magic, and Biyombo is a good reason why. He has been starting and getting 30-32 minutes per game, which will help him get the 10-12 rebounds needed to make value at this price.
Other Options – Pau Gasol ($5,100), Robin Lopez ($4,900)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.