WATCH: HE’S ON FIRE BABY! – JAMES HARDEN
The NBA rolls on tonight with a loaded 11-game slate, with almost all of the games featuring large chunks of fantasy relevant players. Here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Russell Westbrook – OKC at ATL – $12,600 – The only question when it comes to rostering Russell Westbrook is if the opponent and pace will allow for Russ to get to the 70 DK points that he’ll need to hit value. The Hawks have been reeling recently, as the fourth worst defense over the last six games and sneaking into the top 10 in pace, practically spiraling into Brooklyn Nets territory. Even in Atlanta, I think Russell is safe to roster at this salary.
John Wall – WAS at BKN – $8,900 – Speaking of Brooklyn, Wall heads into the Nets’ home tonight and finds his host ranking as the sixth worst in defense and third in pace. Wall continues to enjoy 28+% raw usage and a ton of minutes under Scott Brooks.
Other Options – Stephen Curry ($9,000), Damian Lillard ($8,400)
Shelvin Mack – UTA at LAL – $3,800 – George Hill is out again today, and in his absence Mack has played 29.4 minutes per game averaging a 19.4% usage rate, scoring 22.5 DK PPG as well. This game against the Lakers has a bit higher total than most Jazz games (projected 200 point total), suggesting a slight boost for Mack.
Sergio Rodriguez – PHI vs. DEN – $5,000 – The projected game total is a robust 211 and the Nuggets sport the worst defensive rating in the league over the last six games. Meaning Rodriguez (who will start at PG and play alongside Joel Embiid) will have the platform to score 30+ DK points tonight.
Other Options – Jerian Grant ($3,600), Deron Williams ($5,100), Patty Mills ($4,400 – if Tony Parker is out)
DeMar DeRozan – TOR vs. CLE – $7,800 – Over the last six games, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the fifth worst defense and seventh highest paced team. This is why the projected total on this game is a beefy 216, and DeRozan who has a 33% usage rate, is a great play here in my opinion, given the public’s perception of a strong Cleveland defense.
Avery Bradley – BOS at HOU – $6,200 – Houston has the third worst defense over the last six games, and Bradley’s usage has remained a steady 22% even as the rotation has ebbed and flowed with his teammates’ health. Bradley has attempted no fewer than 10 shots in each game this season.
Other Options – James Harden ($11,800), Klay Thompson ($6,600)
Troy Daniels – MEM vs. NOR – $4,200 – It is chasing, just a little, to go to Daniels after his mega 23 shot, 46.50 DK fantasy point night against the Lakers. However, the same guys (Conley, Carter, Ennis, Randolph) are out again tonight, and over the three games that all of those guys have missed, Daniels leads in raw usage with a 26.4% total.
Tony Allen – MEM vs. NOR – $4,100 – Of course, if you want to be both sneaky and safe, you could play Allen instead of Daniels for $100 less. Allen has 20.6% usage over the same stretch of games and is playing 28-30 minutes, scoring around 23 DKPPG over that span.
Other Options – Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,200), Gerald Henderson ($3,500)
Kevin Durant – GSW vs. IND – $10,200 – Durant is the best overall fantasy point producer on the team, and though his usage is below Stephen Curry’s, his rebounding and assist rates are higher. Additionally, because of rotations Durant will play later into a game than Curry, evidenced in the 138-109 blowout over Phoenix where Durant was getting run against the second unit for Phoenix.
Wilson Chandler – DEN at PHI – $6,600 – He has mid 20% raw usage, has taken 25, 17, 17, 18 and 14 shots over his last five games and is scoring close to 38 DKPPG over that span. In a good matchup against Philly tonight, Chandler is a decent value option at the SF position.
Other Options – Kawhi Leonard ($8,000), Jimmy Butler ($8,500)
Markieff Morris – WAS at BKN – $5,000 – This is a great matchup, as already discussed, and Morris is a tourney play only for me due to his inconsistency. However, his nearly 21% usage rate will play well in this matchup against a banged up Trevor Booker.
Troy Williams – MEM vs. NOR – $4,400 – Not as prolific as Troy Daniels, Williams is still getting 35 minutes without the aforementioned Grizzlies absentees. His raw usage is a fair 20% and the minutes could allow for a higher upside than his 17, 18 and 22.50 outputs have provided. He’s more of a cash game option for me given that his extended playing time creates a higher floor.
Other Options – Danilo Gallinari ($5,500), Will Barton ($5,100), Jae Crowder ($5,800)
Draymond Green – GSW vs. IND – $8,000- This game has the highest projected game total of the night (225), and Green’s 36% assist rate on the team gives him a high floor for cash games. Averaging nearly 40 DK PPG this season, I like the versatile Draymond Green in this matchup with the Pacers.
Myles Turner – IND at GSW – $7,000 – For me, Turner is strictly correlated with the projected pace and scoring total of the game. Turner’s 20.5% raw usage rate and Starting Unit high 21.5% defensive rebound (DREB) rate raises his floor enough to make him a realistic consideration for me.
Other Options – Kevin Love ($7,900)
Taj Gibson – CHI vs. POR – $5,600 – This is a good matchup with a hefty projected game total (213). Gibson has the upside to make good on this number, as he scored 38.50 and 47.25 in the last two home games.
Kenneth Faried – DEN at PHI – $5,100 – In the last two games that Nikola Jokic has missed (as he will again tonight) Faried has 27% raw usage. His minutes are still 22-25, but he has upside in this matchup against the Sixers, who give up the ninth most rebounds to opponents per 100 possessions.
Other Options – Trevor Booker ($5,800), Nikola Mirotic ($4,300)
Joel Embiid – PHI vs. DEN – $6,900- There is nobody in Denver that can contend with Embiid (Denver gives up third most points in the paint, fifth highest FG% less than 5ft), and his raised minutes limit (28), along with continued high usage (34-35% raw), makes him a valuable play at $6.9K.
Dwight Howard – ATL vs. OKC – $7,100 – The Hawks need Howard to have a big game to break their losing skid, and the questionable status of Steven Adams improves Howard’s outlook even more. If Paul Millsap misses again, Howard and Dennis Schröder go up in raw usage.
Other Options – Marc Gasol ($7,600), Brook Lopez ($6,400)
Cody Zeller – CHA at DAL – $4,400 – No Marvin Williams and a matchup against Andrew Bogut means that Zeller will be needed for around 30 minutes tonight. Zeller has enough raw usage and a rebounding rate to make value happen at his price even in a depressed scoring matchup.
Clint Capela – HOU vs. BOS – $5,700 – Against Al Horford there should be little concern over foul trouble for Capela, which raises his minutes level and makes him very playable in this high possession, high total game. Even his raw usage of 20% is surprisingly high, and in my opinion, makes him a good play against a Celtics team that doesn’t have a seven-footer that Capela would have to deal with.
Other Options – Pau Gasol ($5,300), Marcin Gortat ($5,900), Enes Kanter ($4,500)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.