Once again we’ve got a very small slate on a Tuesday night, as there are just four games. The options are very limited tonight, so let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s targets.
Kyle Lowry ($8,300) – On a slate with so few elite options, Lowry is one of the top plays. He has failed to eclipse 40 points in seven straight games, but prior to that he had topped 46 points in three consecutive games. The last time he faced the Mavericks he stuffed the stat sheet. He scored 27 points, dished out 10 dimes, grabbed five boards, blocked two shots, and had three steals. That was good for 59.8 fantasy points. The Mavs allow 49 fantasy points per game to point guards. Despite his recent subpar performances, Lowry has exceeded value 63 percent of the time this season by an average of 4.63 points, per Fantasy Labs. The Raptors have an implied team total of 100 points, which is the third highest of the evening. Deron Williams isn’t the best defender and could have trouble against Lowry this evening.
Other Options – Reggie Jackson $7,600, Mike Conley $6,300
Lou Williams ($5,400) – Williams is averaging 31.4 minutes, 16.9 points, and 28.5 fantasy points in his last 10 games. In that span, he has exceeded value 90 percent of the time by an average of 6.73 points, per Fantasy Labs. Surprisingly he’s been one of the more consistent offensive contributors for the Lakers the last several games. He has topped 26 fantasy points in six straight games, including three 30+ fantasy point games. He has a favorable matchup against the Nuggets who surrender the second most fantasy points per game to opposing guards (44.3). The last game he played against the Nuggets, Williams scored 41.3 fantasy points. This game has the highest over/under of the evening at 203.5 and the Lakers have an implied point total of 99.25.
Other Options – Jameer Nelson $5,400, Beno Udrih $3,000 (if Goran Dragic sits)
DeMar DeRozan ($7,400) – DeRozan has topped 38 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. In that span, he’s averaging 27 points, five rebounds, 1.6 steals, three assists, and 41 fantasy points per game. The Mavs allow 41.1 fantasy points per game to shooting guards. DeRozan offers the highest ceiling of all shooting guards tonight and a relatively safe floor. As I mentioned above, the Raptors have the third highest team total of the evening at 100 points. He’s been shooting well recently and should continue to do so tonight.
Other Options – Dwyane Wade $6,900, Will Barton $6,600
Jordan Clarkson ($5,500) – There are a couple of shooting guards in this price range that are intriguing. Clarkson has a good matchup and is playing in the game that should be the fastest paced of the evening. The Lakers and Nuggets have the highest total of the night at 203.5 points. The last time that Clarkson played the Nuggets he finished with 40.8 fantasy points. While that will be difficult to duplicate, another big game isn’t out of the question as the Nuggets aren’t a good defensive team. Opposing shooting guards are averaging 42.6 fantasy points per game against the Nuggets, but in the last five games they’re averaging 47.3, which is the fifth most in that span. Even though Kobe Bryan is probable for tonight, Clarkson still plays over 30 minutes per game and has a decent usage rate.
Other Options – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,300, Raymond Felton $5,400
Danilo Gallinari ($6,700) – You know its slim pickings when the top priced player at small forward is Gallinari. He’s questionable for tonight even though he was able to practice on Monday. The Nuggets play the Lakers who are awful defensively. They surrender the seventh most fantasy points per game to small forwards (41.7) and the second most points to opposing teams (107.2). The last time Gallinari faced the Lakers, he scored 39.5 fantasy points. He has a good matchup and offers the highest ceiling of any small forward in tonight’s slate.
Other Options – none
James Johnson ($3,900) – Johnson has started and played over 30 minutes in each of the last two games. He topped 26 fantasy points in both of those games and has crushed value. When he plays more minutes, his production usually increases. At this price, so long as he plays a good amount of minutes, he should have no trouble paying off his salary. If you’re looking for a cheap option to get Andre Drummond in your lineup tonight, Johnson is a solid option.
Other Options – Jeff Green $5,100, Luol Deng $4,900
Chris Bosh ($7,000) – Bosh is the top power forward this evening, based on his potential alone. This isn’t the greatest matchup nor is it a game where the pace will be high. However, his ability to score 45+ fantasy points on any given night makes him an intriguing option. Bosh has topped 40 fantasy points in four of his last eight games. Goran Dragic is questionable for tonight’s game, if he misses, Bosh could see a minor uptick in usage. At this price, there’s enough upside to consider Bosh.
Other Options – Dirk Nowitzki $6,400 (not really a stud, but he’s in play)
Kenneth Faried ($6,100) – Faried is a very streaky player, so if you do roll with him, I’d recommend him in tournaments only. He has topped 30 fantasy points in four of his last six games, but has also scored fewer than 16 fantasy points once. In his last 10 games, Faried has exceed value seven times by an average of 3.21 points, per Fantasy Labs. He faces the Lakers who, as I mentioned before, don’t play good defense. They allow the second most points per game to opposing teams. Power forwards have averaged over 50 fantasy points per game in the last five against the Lakers. In his last matchup against the Lakers, Faried scored 28 points and grabbed 15 boards. That was good for 47.8 fantasy points. At this price he could easily 6x his salary in such a great matchup.
Other Options – Nerlens Noel $5,600, Ersan Ilyasova $5,100, Luis Scola $4,900
Marc Gasol ($7,500) – This is a strong position tonight as there are a couple of good options. Chances are I’ll have two centers in some lineups this evening. Gasol has posted some big numbers in recent games. He has topped 50 fantasy point in two of his last four games. He has a great matchup against the Sixers who surrender the fourth most rebounds per game (46) and have a -4.3 differential. Opposing centers average 50.9 fantasy points per game against the Sixers, which is the sixth most. Gasol is always a threat for a triple-double. At this price and in such a good matchup, he’s one of tonight few elite plays.
Other Options – Andre Drummond $9,400, Hassan Whiteside $6,800
Bismack Biyombo ($5,200) – Biyombo is averaging 32 minutes, 12.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 5.7 points, and 26.6 fantasy points per game in his last six games. He has grabbed 13 or more rebounds in four straight games. The Mavericks allow 45 rebounds per game and are surrendering 45.5 fantasy points per game to opposing centers. If you’re looking for a cheaper option with a safe floor and some decent upside at center, Biyombo is your guy.
Other Options – Zaza Pachulia $5,700, Nikola Jokic $4,000