Friday features a robust 12 game slate for daily fantasy with the revenge game of all revenge games highlighting the slate. Golden State gets a rematch against the Milwaukee Bucks who snapped their undefeated season. Klay Thompson already fired some shots and you can tell the Warriors are pumped for this one, so it is definitely a game I am looking forward to watching. As for fantasy purposes, the two top games to target are the Sacramento vs. Minnesota and Phoenix vs. New Orleans. Both games have totals above 210 with close spreads. The only game that is an outlier to the downside is the match up between Toronto and Miami at a 187 total. The Warriors favored by 20 and the Pacers favored by 10 over the nets are the two large spreads to watch out for, while the rest of the games are right around 200 total points and have a spread of 5 points or less.
Isaiah Thomas ($7700) – IT2 has been putting up big numbers and his price has stayed flat. He had a huge scoring game last time out, but he’s also been solid with points and assists lately in many of his recent starts. He has gone 5X or better in 5 of his last 8, which includes three games of 6X or better as well. That’s not an easy feat for a guy who is this expensive. The matchup is not ideal, but Atlanta has been no where near as good this year as they were last season defensively, and this game does have one of the higher totals at 204. IT2 has been hot, and I would prefer to pay down to his level over some of the top priced options at the positions.
Brandon Knight ($7400) – Knight has not played great lately, but those last few matchups have been much tougher than this one. He faces a New Orleans team that has struggled against opposing guards in one of the highest paced games on the day. Knight is very boom or bust. For every game where he went 6X or better, we also have a game or two with him struggling to reach 4X. He is strictly a GPP play for me on the day, but will make for a low owned play that has the explosive upside that could win you a tournament.
Zach LaVine ($5700) – LaVine is one of the better plays lately and keeps flying under the radar. If Kevin Martin is out again, he should be in line for another good game. LaVine is a high fantasy point per game producer. He’s been returning 25-35 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. The price has crept up a little bit, but the added usage with Martin out still keeps him in play.
Jrue Holiday ($5100) – Holiday has been putting up some good numbers lately with 30+ fantasy points for 6.7X or better in his last five starts. His price has come up, but even at $5K he would have returned 6X or better. He plays in the game with the second highest total here, so the spot is pretty solid for him to repeat his recent efforts. Guards have put up some big numbers against the Phoenix Suns with the high pace they play at, so a cheap consistent option like Holiday should be highly used tonight with good reason.
Tyreke Evans ($7300) – If I am paying up for a shooting guard today, I think Evans would be the one I look at. We already talked about the high total in this New Orleans vs. Phoenix game and the up and down nature of t plays to Evans strength. He has put up 6.5X or better in more than half of his recent starts, so he has the explosive upside we like to position ourselves to win a tournament. Evans is not cheap, but he does still feel a bit underpriced. A guy with 40-50 point upside in the low $7K range is someone you have to consider when the matchup and pace are in his favor.
Raymond Felton ($5400) – Everyone was concerned about his playing time with guys like Wes Matthews and J.J. Barea getting healthy, but Felton keeps chugging along and putting up big fantasy scores. He had a bad game last tme out which still yielded a 4.5X return at his price. It snapped a streak of eleven straight games with Felton over 6 times value, so we can excuse him for missing once in the last three weeks. Felton is still seeing upwards of 30 minutes in his recent starts, so there is no need to shy away from him here. He will likely see some Courtney Lee defense which would be a much softer spot for him if Tony Allen remains sidelined.
Monta Ellis ($5500) – Ellis is very reasonably priced here at only $5500. His Indiana team is favored by 10 in a game where they are expected to score close to 110 points. Ellis has picked up his shots and his scoring lately. He has averaged over 15 shots per game in his last 4 and that has coincided with returns of $,%,^, and 9 times his value in those games. In a matchup where a lot of points are expected from his team, Ellis should get his fair share and be a solid option.
Khris Middleton ($5300) – I like looking for the guys who can outproduce their salary on a consistent basis at shooting guard. Minutes are one of those things I like for when wanting safety. Kentavius Caldwell-Pope has been a guy who fits that mold, but he has a tough matchup against Jimmy Butler in a paced down game. Middleton on the other hand has also been playing in the 38-42 minutes range lately and his game has a much higher epected pace with the Warriors. Over his last four games, Middleton has played an average of 39 minutes and returned between 5 and 7 times his value in each of those starts. He should see a lot of floor time here today and did go 5X a few days back in the first matchup between these two teams. If the Bucks hope to repeat that result, Middleton will need to do some scoring to keep the game close. His minutes have been consistent in close games and blowouts, so I do not fear the huge spread as much as some others do.
Carmelo Anthony ($8300) – Melo has been awesome over the last week. He has returned 6.5X or better with three straight 50+ fantasy point games. He is rebounding more as he plays more of the PF spot and has also picked up his assists as well. He is scoring as we know he can too, so it’s been a great run for him. He faces a Philly defense that has been giving up a ton of fantasy points to the big guys they face as well, so the matchup is also in his favor.
Kawhi Leonard ($8600) – It’s tough for me to pay up over Leonard over Melo, but I do love rolling him out there, especially when Tim Duncan is out like he was last game. I feel like Duncan was resting up for this one, so that will tick Leonard down a little. He is still the one Spur who plays a consistent 30-35 minutes a game, and gives you a solid fantasy score in the 40s. This should be a hot pace and closely contested game against the Clippers. The Clippers wing defense has left a lot to be desired in recent years, so I do like the spot for Kawhi and think he can still produce a nice fantasy stat line.
Omri Casspi ($5900) – The valuation on Casspi is starting to get a little stretched, but he’s still a solid option based oon his recent production and increased role. He has averaged just shy of 40 minutes in his last three games and has been moved into the starting lineup as the Kings have gone with Gay at the four and are stretching the floor more. He has a solid pace matchup against Minnesota who plays fast and should be able to put up the 30-40 fantasy points we have seen out of him lately. At his price, he is safe for 5X with 6X as an upside.
Jeff Green ($5100) – As the league moves to those smaller lineups, we see Jeff Green as one of those guys at the power forward position. His price has crept up a little bit, but is still only $5K. He put up 30 fantasy points in his first two games after being moved into the starting lineup for Z Bo, so he has the 6X ceiling we want for a tourney option. I don’t see massive upside out of him, but he is cheap enough and his role has increased enough to make him a solid option for 5-6X value.
Draymond Green ($8800) – Draymond has been a monster lately. He has 60,50, and 70 fantasy points in his last three games. He is in the top ten for assists in the league and he plays power forward. He is racking up the rebounds and has even started scoring more points recently as well. Everyone is worried about the blowout, especially with the revenge factor the Warriors may have going here. Draymond is coming off a game though we he posted a triple double in three quarters anyway, so it’s not like we have not seen him do it before. Draymond is able to contribute in so many categories, including the defensive ones and all those stats have been adding up to huge value.
Kenneth Faried ($6100) – Faried missed a few games and was slowly worked back into the mix. He has been playing 30 minutes the last few games, so he seems to be back. He has done so while scoring 30-40 fantasy points and returning 5-6X value often. The matchup with Utah seems scary, but he’s getting Booker defense instead of Gobert and Favors. Plus Faried is a hustle guy who tends to gt his points through hard work and that gives him a nice floor.
John Henson ($4200) – With Greg Monroe still listed as questionable, Henson should see another start here. I would still only expect 20-25 minutes out of him, but he can put up 20-25 fantasy points without much effort if he sees that much time. Henson is a good rebounder, a great shot blocker, and someone who will see a few points here and there. I’m not looking for a monster score, but he can give you a safe 20-25 and make value at only $4200.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7000) – This is not a popular pick tonight, but I really like Towns in this one. With KG out he is starting alongside Gorgui Dieng. With Dieng starting and plying with Towns, both have seen an uptick in minutes. Couple that with the fact that Towns has seen his price drop and you get yourself a pretty solid under the radar play for the night. Sacramento plays at a blistering pace, so most guys tend to outperform their averages against the Kings. With all those positives in his favor, I think Towns is a sneaky good option for an upside game and a good shot to hit 6X or better.
Hassan Whiteside ($6600) – We have seen Whiteside heat up and dominate the center position at various points in his past and I’m banking on that hot streak starting again here. He gets a matchup with Bismack Biyombo for this game. He’s had double digit rebounds in four straight games. If he can pick up the scoring or blocks a little bit, then the value he returns could be huge.
Jared Sullinger ($6000) – Sully is a little erratic, but he makes for a real nice play in this one. Olynyk had his big week, which came at the expense of Sully’s production. It seems that things are turning back though as the minutes differential is not moving in the opposite direction. When Sully plays over 26 minutes he has returned 30-40 fantasy points. At only $6K, that would be a 5-7X return and make him a solid tournament option.
Gorgui Dieng ($5300) – This one hinges on the status of Kevin Garnett, but Dieng started last game and saw 36 minutes with no Garnett around. He put up 36 fantasy points and that was a 7X return at his price of around $5K. We have seen him around that 30 point mark when he has the 26+ minutes of action and this is a paced up game against Sacramento. It will not be too hard or him to reach value and even offer upside if his minutes are going to hover between 30-35 now.