We have a six-game slate on tap for tonight. Despite the small slate, there are a good amount of studs to choose from, so let’s jump right into some players to target tonight.
Damian Lillard ($8,300) – Lillard has topped 47 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, while eclipsing 50 fantasy points five times during that stretch. Tonight’s game against the Thunder should be up in pace as both teams are top eight in the league in game pace. Oklahoma City has allowed +2.44 points above expectation to opposing point guards and is yielding the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position. Considering how well Lillard is playing and how favorable of a matchup this is, he is one of my top options on the slate.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook $12,700, Stephen Curry $8,400, Eric Bledsoe $8,000
Derrick Rose ($6,300) – Rose finds himself in a favorable matchup against the Suns who are giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game and have allowed +4.38 points above expectation to opposing point guards. The Suns play at the second highest pace in the league, which should create more touch opportunities for Rose and the Knicks. Rose has exceeded value 50 percent of the time by an average of 3.51 points in his last 10 games. He is averaging 31.9 minutes, 18.6 points, 4.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 32.7 fantasy points per game during that span. Despite the price increase over the last 10 games, Rose still holds value at this price.
Other Options – Dennis Schroder $6,200, Jrue Holiday $6,100, Elfrid Payton $4,900
Dwyane Wade ($6,600) – The seemingly ageless Wade has been very consistent on his new team. He has topped 32 fantasy points in nine consecutive games, while eclipsing 40 fantasy points four times during that stretch. He is not only a scorer, but provides peripheral stats, increasing his floor. He leads the Bulls with a 28.4 percent usage rate. On a night where this position is thin, if you want stability and upside, I think Wade makes sense at a reasonable price.
Other Options – Klay Thompson $6,500
Courtney Lee ($3,900) – Lee is averaging 30 minutes per game and has a very good matchup tonight. The Suns have allowed +2.59 points above expectation to opposing shooting guards and are yielding the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position. In addition, they play at the second fastest pace in the league. Lee’s upside is very dependent on his actual scoring, but at this price and in this matchup, he makes sense as he offers 6-7X upside.
Other Options – Troy Daniels $3,900
Kevin Durant ($9,400) – I am fully aware of Durant’s recent struggles, scoring fewer than 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games, but this is a great spot for a bounce back game. The Pelicans have allowed +1.33 points above expectation to opposing small forwards. Durant scored 68.75 fantasy points that last time he played in New Orleans. He could go overlooked due to his recent game logs, making him a very intriguing tournament play.
Other Options – LeBron James $9,800, Jimmy Butler $8,700, Carmelo Anthony $7,700
Thabo Sefolosha ($4,600) – Sefolosha has moved into the starting lineup in his last three games and is averaging 30.3 minutes, eight points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 blocks, 2.3 steals and 26.5 fantasy points per game over that stretch. His salary has increased over the last couple of games, but he remains at a price point where paying off his salary is not out of the question.
Other Options – Andre Roberson $4,500
Anthony Davis ($11,300) – Going back to 2014 (11 games), Davis is averaging 55.57 fantasy points per game against the Warriors and has exceeded expectations by an average of 5.63 points. However, in five home games against them, he averaged 62.7 fantasy points per game and has not scored fewer than 55 fantasy points in a single game. The blowout factor is worrisome tonight, but this is the Warriors’ fifth consecutive road game in the last week, which can certainly take a toll on a team.
Other Options – Paul Millsap $7,900, Kevin Love $7,800, Kristaps Porzingis $7,600
Terrence Jones ($4,200) – In the month of December, Jones is averaging 26 minutes, 10.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, nearly one block and 20.5 fantasy points per game. He has a good matchup today against a Warriors team that is yielding the fifth most points and the most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. This game should be up-tempo, which should create some extra touches for Jones. While he is volatile, he also presents a good amount of upside for someone at this price.
Other Options – JaMychal Green $5,800, Gorgui Dieng $5,600, Al-Farouq Aminu $3,700
Dwight Howard ($6,900) – Howard is not the most expensive center on the slate, but could be in the best spot of all the high-end centers tonight. The Magic have allowed +4.03 points above expectation to opposing centers, while yielding the eighth most fantasy points per game during the last 10 games. Orlando is giving up the seventh most rebounds per game to opponents and have a -2.1 differential. This is a favorable situation for Howard and one he should be able to take advantage of.
Other Options – Draymond Green $7,500
Tyson Chandler ($4,900) – I likely won’t be paying up at center today, and that is because of Chandler. He comes in at a very affordable price and is playing consistent minutes, averaging 28.9 minutes per game over his last seven. During that stretch, he is averaging eight points, 11.3 rebounds, one steal and 25.6 fantasy points per game, recording three double-doubles. In addition, he faces off against a Knicks team that is yielding the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, while giving up the second most points.
Other Options – Robin Lopez $4,800, Guillermo Hernangomez $3,400 (if Kyle O’Quinn sits)
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend.