Armando Marsal

Fantasy Writer

 

Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday November 22nd and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.

POINT GUARD TARGETS

Studs

John Wall at MIL ($9,400)-Wall has scored over 38 fantasy points in his last three games and has been averaging 47.6 fantasy points in the last ten days. Point Guards average 45.2 fantasy points per game against the Bucks, but in recent games, the Bucks defense has given up 48.1 fantasy points per game. Wall has the highest ceiling of all point guards this evening. If you want a 40+ fantasy point game, he’s your guy.

Kyle Lowry at CLE ($7,800)-He is the third most expensive point guard today and he will be up against the second most expensive point guard, Kyle Irving. Lowry has scored over 30 fantasy points in each of his last five games. The Cavs don’t play much defense and have been getting torched by point guards lately, as they’ve surrendered an average of 53.7 fantasy points per game. If you’re not in the mood to pay for Wall, but are still seeking a high-level guard, Lowry would be my choice.

Values

Shabazz Napier at ORL ($3,400)-The Heat are full of injuries, which could open the door up for Napier to get minutes. Dwayne Wade and Norris Cole are both game-time decisions for tonight’s game. If Cole can’t play, Napier could see a decent amount of minutes. He has scored over 16 fantasy points in each of his last three games and is averaging 17.1 fantasy points in the last 10 days. Keep an eye on the Heat injuries, and if Cole sits out, Napier would be a good inexpensive option.

Mo Williams vs. SAC ($4,700)-The veteran guard has been getting the start over Zach Lavine and has averaged 30 minutes per game in the last three games. In that span, he has scored over 23 fantasy points per game. He has a good matchup tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. He should have no trouble hitting value tonight.

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SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS

Studs

James Harden vs. DAL ($10,100)-Harden had a bounce back game against the Lakers on Wednesday after a poor Monday night outing. He has only scored fewer than 40 fantasy points in one game this season. Dallas is giving up over 40 points to opposing shooting guards per game. His floor and ceiling are extremely high, hence the price, but it’s comforting knowing what you’re going to get from your shooting guard.

Eric Bledsoe at IND ($7,500)-He is averaging 36 fantasy points in the last five games, and has a great matchup against the Pacers tonight. The Pacers are allowing 51.4 fantasy points per game and they are allowing the fifth highest field goal percentage per game to shooting guards. If you’re looking for a high-level guard, but don’t want to pay top dollar, Bledsoe is a good option.

Values

Ben McLemore at MIN ($4,100)-After putting together five consecutive 20+ fantasy point games, McLemore has hasn’t been able to break 15 fantasy points in the last three games. However, in that stretch he’s played three of the top five defenses against shooting guards. Tonight he has a much better matchup against the Timberwolves who are giving up 42.7 fantasy points per game to shooting guards this season. Look for him to get back on track against a much easier opponent.

Rodney Stuckey vs. PHO ($3,400)-He came back into the lineup on Wednesday after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 26 minutes and scored 15 fantasy points. He’s one of the very few offensive options on the Pacers squad and has a good matchup. The Suns are giving up the fifth most points, third highest FG%, and 44.3 fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. So long as the minutes are there, the production should follow for Stuckey this evening.

 

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SMALL FORWARD TARGETS

Studs

Carmelo Anthony vs. PHI ($9,500)-This is a position that I decided not to take the most expensive player. I’m going to save the $1,700 here and roll with Melo. He is averaging 37.2 fantasy points per game, but has scored more than 39 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Tonight he will face the Sixers which rank dead last against small forwards in fantasy points allowed. A huge night is in the forecast for Melo. Get him in your lineups.

Gordon Hayward vs. NO ($7,600)-He’s currently the fourth most expensive small forward and has a great matchup ahead of him. Hayward has scored below his yearly average in his last three games, but there’s a good chance he gets back on track tonight. The Pelicans are allowing 38.5 fantasy points per game to opposing guards. The Jazz will have to score points against the Pelicans’ which will create more opportunity for Hayward. He’s an economical high-level small forward.

Values

Donatas Motiejunas vs. DAL ($4,500)-The Houston are expected to be without Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones again tonight. Motiejunas is expected to get the start tonight. The last three games where he played for over 30 minutes, he scored 20 or more fantasy points. Dallas is giving up 41.2 fantasy points per game, so as long as Motiejunas gets his playing time, there’s no reason to believe he won’t produce solid numbers.

Corey Brewer vs. SAC ($5,200)-Brewer has seen an increase of minutes in recent games due to the injury to Kevin Martin who will not play in tonight’s game. Brewer has scored more than 20 fantasy points in the last five games. The Kings have given up over 40 fantasy points in their last five games. Brewer shouldn’t have a problem scoring in double digits tonight and forcing turnovers. He’s not the cheapest small forward on the market, but he’s still good value.

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POWER FORWARD TARGETS

Studs

Anthony Davis at UTA ($11,400)-The most expensive player of tonight’s games is one I’d consider paying for. When your floor is 30 points on your worst night, I’ll take that. Davis has a good matchup tonight against the Jazz who are giving up 45.5 fantasy points per game to power forwards. It’s a steep price to pay, but Davis is a beast. He’s averaging 53.9 fantasy points per game, and has already scored over 60 fantasy points in four games this season. If you’re in the mood to splurge, Davis should be in your shopping cart.

Derek Favors vs. NO ($7,300)-I love this matchup for Favors. He’s taking on the Pelicans that are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards (51.4). The over under for this game is 200 points. As mentioned above, the Jazz are going to have to put up some points on the board to keep up with the Pelicans. Favors has scored below his yearly average in three consecutive games, but with such a great matchup, he should have no problem putting up fantasy points tonight.

Values

Mirza Teletovic at SA ($4600)-Kevin Garnett will not play in tonight’s game against the Spurs and this is not a great matchup for Teletovic, but the minutes should be there for him tonight. In the last three games he has scored over 20 fantasy points and is averaging 25.7 minutes per game. The only time he received over 30 minutes in a game, he scored over 30 fantasy points. There’s a shot he sees more than 30 minutes tonight with Garnett out.

Amir Johnson at CLE ($4,800)-James Johnson is not expected to play in tonight’s game which will open the door for Johnson to get more minutes once again. In the last two games where he played for 30 or more minutes, he scored over 25 fantasy points. The Cavs have allowed over 50 fantasy points to opposing power forwards in the last five games. If you’re looking for an even cheaper option, look into Patrick Peterson who’s $1,000 cheaper and is getting 20+ minutes per game. I however, think that Johnson’s ceiling is much higher, and should have no issue hitting value tonight.

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CENTER TARGETS

Studs

Nikola Vucevic vs. MIA ($8,600)-The Heat are allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to Centers in the last five games (52.4). Vucevic has four straight double-doubles and is looking to make it a fifth straight tonight. Miami has had trouble stopping Centers all season and will likely struggle to contain Vucevic tonight. There’s no reason why he doesn’t score about 40 fantasy points tonight which is his yearly average.

DeMarcus Cousins at MIN ($10,300)-He should take complete advantage of Gorgui Dieng tonight.  Cousins is averaging 44.6 fantasy points per game, but has scored over his yearly average in three of the last four games. This is the highest over under of the night, so a lot of points are expected. There’s a good chance, many of them are scored by Cousins. Look for him to get his sixth straight double-double and put on a show in Minnesota who has allowed 64.8 fantasy points to centers in the last five games.

Values

Anderson Varejao vs. TOR ($5,100)-If you noticed I did not scrape the bottom of the barrel at Center this week, because there’s value in this salary range. Varejao takes on the Raptors that have been getting smoked by Centers as of late, allowing 51 fantasy points per game in their last five games. The over under in this game is 205 points so it’s likely this will be a high scoring affair. He’s only scored less than 20 fantasy points three times this season. He should hit value tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas at CLE ($5,500)-He has two double-doubles in his last three games. He’s scored over 35 fantasy points in two of his last three games and has a favorable matchup against the Cavs tonight. The Cavs are not known for their defense, but rather their offense. In a game where the Raptors will need points, Valanciunas should be able to provide a decent stat line for his owners.