NBA Targets: April 6th

The NBA rolls on tonight with a six-game slate, so here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.

Point Guard

Stud

Damian Lillard – POR vs. MIN – $8,800 – Portland is scrambling for its playoff life, and it has a home game against the Timberwolves, who have the fourth-worst pace adjusted defensive rating over the last seven games. Lillard has a 29% raw usage rate over the last seven games and 31% over the last three with Jusuf Nurkic out.

Ricky Rubio – MIN at POR – $7,600 – Thibs simply keeps playing the studs down the stretch, so if Rubio is starting for this game, and the game remains close, than he is a solid target here with his more than a DK point per minute rate, including a 44.75 effort two games ago against these Blazers.

Other Options – Elfrid Payton ($7,700)

Value

Michael Carter-Williams – CHI at PHI – $3,000 – No Rajon Rondo should mean more MCW, and at a min price in a revenge game matchup in Philly, even 24 minutes will provide ample opportunity to hit tourney value here for the former Sixer.

Isaiah Whitehead – BKN at ORL – $3,000 – Sean Kilpatrick is questionable and Whitehead is probable, so the min-priced Whitehead should be good for 22-24 minutes in a loose game against the Magic, who have been the seventh-worst team in pace-adjusted defense over the last seven games.

Other Options – Ron Baker ($4,000)


Shooting Guard

Stud

Jimmy Butler – CHI at PHI – $9,700 – No Dwyane Wade, no Rajon Rondo. This leaves the huge portion of running the team and scoring to Butler. In the two full games without Wade/Rondo, Butler’s raw usage leaps to 36.2% and his DKPPG is 63.63. The Bulls also have to win to stay ahead in the Eastern playoff race, so he has that going for him, too, which is nice.

C.J. McCollum – POR vs. MIN – $6,900 – Like Lillard, CJMC has seen his raw usage rise, too, in the absence of Nurkic, jumping to 29% over the last three games. The high projected total of the game, and the aforementioned ranking of the Minnesota defense, leaves this a great spot to grab McCollum in my opinion.

Other Options – Avery Bradley ($6,000)

Value

Evan Fournier – ORL vs. BKN – $5,700 – Very nicely priced for this matchup, which has the highest projected total of the slate at 224. Fournier has 22% raw usage over the last three games, and gets the minutes for the Magic, even with Jodie Meeks back, averaging 33 per game over the same span.

Evan Turner – POR vs. MIN – $3,700 – Price and rotational play here, as Turner has come back to the Blazers rotation and has received 25, 27 and 23 minutes, averaging 19% raw usage and 23.17 DKPPG over those games.

Other Options – Allen Crabbe ($4,100)


Small Forward

Stud

Paul George – IND vs. MIL – $8,900 – George is fifth in raw usage over the past three games in the league, as the forward tries to drag the Pacers into the playoffs all by himself. His totals over those games? 46.25, 77.25 (2OT) and 58.50 DKFP. He will go after the wing defense of the Bucks, which has been a lot more prolific than attacking from the PG position, leaving Jeff Teague funneling even more to PG13.

Carmelo Anthony – NYK vs. WAS – $6,600 – He is playing at home and is expected to go, which has meant mid-30s minutes even though the Knicks have been eliminated. Take Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) out of the game and even more falls into the lap of Anthony, who gets a solid matchup as well. The Wizards are the third-worst pace-adjusted defense over the last seven games.

Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800)

Value

Khris Middleton – MIL at IND – $5,900- Middleton is at his lowest price point since March 1, and with Giannis covered by PG13, it leaves Middleton dealing with C.J. Miles, Lance Stephenson and Monta Ellis and will likely funnel more of the offense his way as well.

Terrence Ross – ORL vs. BKN – $5,100 – Ross is in that great matchup against the Nets, as described in Evan Fournier’s note above, and is a tourney flyer due to the minutes he has been getting, and his play at home, which has seen him score 32.25, 27.50 and 32.50 in his last three games there.

Other Options – Otto Porter ($5,100)


Power Forward

Stud

Paul Millsap – ATL vs. BOS – $7,100 – The Hawks will need Millsap, badly, as they are scrambling to avoid the lottery and host the Celtics, who are fighting for the top seed. Millsap has done very well recently against the C’s, and though he was limited in minutes, the Hawks do not have the luxury of resting Millsap any further, or else he’ll have the rest of the summer to rest. In his last three games against Boston, Millsap has registered 50.92 DKPPG.

Aaron Gordon – ORL vs. BKN – $6,500 – Gordon has been humming, averaging 36 DKPPG over his last 14 days, including a 55.25 game against the Nets two games ago. The move to power forward, something anyone who watched the team begged for, has been terrific, allowing Gordon to corral a lot more rebounds being closer to the hoop.

Other Options – Gorgui Dieng ($6,100)

Value

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,000) – Aminu scored 44.25 DKFP against these Timberwolves just two games ago, picking up the Nurkic role in the offense since the big fella went down. He is slated for 30-32 minutes and the Blazers need to win, making him an excellent cash-game play in my opinion.

Maurice Ndour – NYK vs. WAS – $3,700 – Check the lineups to make sure he is in for Porzingis, but Ndour really impressed Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek with his 36 DK point effort against the Bulls last time out. He correlates well with Carmelo in that he doesn’t seek the ball offensively and is aggressively active on the boards.

Other Options – Shawn Long ($4,200), Thaddeus Young ($4,800)


Center

Stud

Brook Lopez – BKN vs. ORL – $7,000 – This is a great big man matchup here as neither are interested in playing defense and neither team has anything to play for. The Nets seem like they are cool with rolling BroLo out there as if it were November, and he had 28 minutes and 44.75 DK points four days ago when these two teams connected.

Nikola Vucevic – ORL vs. BKN – $7,400 – On the other side, Vuc went for 46.75 DK points in 32 minutes in that game. As long as the Magic continue to start him, he is taking mid 20s raw usage and scoring a lot of points, even with the emergence of Aaron Gordon in the frontcourt.

Other Options – Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200)

Value

Robin Lopez – CHI at PHI – $4,900 – RoLo busted the “center against Philly” meme a couple of weeks ago, but I think he has to be considered here, at Philly, for under $5K, in a must-win game for the Bulls. He continues to see solid minutes: 36, 26 and 33 over his last three games, scoring 22.50 DK points in a solid matchup after going through two really tough center games against Atlanta and New Orleans.

Greg Monroe – MIL at IND – $4,800 – Jason Kidd has done the magic trick of making Monroe’s minutes disappear, but with the Bucks trying to clinch a playoff spot, surely he will remember that Monroe has torched the Pacers for 39.25 DK points per game the last three times he has played them.

Other Options – Ian Mahinmi ($3,100), Myles Turner ($5,500)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.