NBA Targets: April 4th

Happy Tuesday all! We are reaching the end of the regular season, and that means that we have to keep a close eye on rotations, as well as which teams have something to play for. In the East, there are still several teams battling it out for a spot in the playoffs, while in the West, there are three teams fighting for the eighth seed. Teams that are out of it could be giving some of their younger players extra run. With that said, let’s jump right into tonight’s targets.

Point Guard

Stud

Elfrid Payton ($7,900) – There are plenty of options tonight, and I am ok with several of the studs, but Payton is very intriguing. Since March 1st, he has five triple-doubles and has flirted with them on several other occasions during that span. Although his usage was just 19.2% in the month of March, he averaged 7.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, which increased his fantasy production. He gets a nice matchup tonight as the Cavs have been atrocious on defense recently, falling to 27th in defense rating over their last 10 games. They are also yielding the sixth most fantasy points per game (54) to opposing point guards.

Other Options – Russell Westbrook $13,500, Stephen Curry $9,700

Value

Kris Dunn ($4,000) – Dunn has cooled down in the last two games and foul trouble has limited his minutes. That being said, there is no reason to think that the Timberwolves will not give him another shot and plenty of run tonight as the season is ending, and they want to see what they have in their young point guard. Dunn will take on the Warriors who play paced up creating extra potential touch opportunities. He is a very volatile option but does provide some upside in this matchup. Recency bias will likely limit his ownership, making him an enticing tournament option.

Other Options – T.J. McConnell $5,800, George Hill $5,800 (check status), Matthew Dellavedova $4,200


Shooting Guard

Stud

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) – Only a couple of games ago DeRozan went off against the Pacers for 40 points with nine rebounds, four assists and one steal, good for 59.25 fantasy points. A repeat is unlikely, but certainly possible. The Pacers are giving up 46.4 fantasy points per game to shooting guards over their last five. During that stretch, they are also rank 27th in defense rating. Since the All-Star break, DeRozan is third in the NBA with a 33.8% usage rate, averaging 20.1 field goal attempts per game. He offers 60+ fantasy point upside and is reasonably priced.

Other Options – Jrue Holiday $7,300, Klay Thompson $7,000

Value

Jordan Crawford ($4,600) – In all seven of the last 10 games that Crawford has played at least 20 minutes, he has topped 20 fantasy points. He has now played at least 24 minutes in five consecutive games and is averaging 23.85 fantasy points during that stretch. He gets a great matchup against the Nuggets who rank 29th in defense rating, while also playing at a fast pace. Opposing shooting guards are averaging 47.5 fantasy points per game against Denver, which is the most allowed by any team. In their last meeting (a little over a week ago), Crawford played 24 minutes and scored 29.75 fantasy points. At this price and in this matchup, there is upside to be had, assuming he plays 20+ minutes.

Other Options – Evan Fournier $5,700, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $5,100, Nik Stauskas $4,600


Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,900) – The Bucks are still playing for playoff seeding, so Giannis should play his normal allotment of minutes tonight. He gets a paced up matchup against the Thunder and one he has success in already this season. He scored 51.5 fantasy points in his last meeting with them. The Greek Freak has topped 60 fantasy points in each of his last two games and has displayed that type of upside multiple times this season. At less than $10,000, I have a lot of interest.

Other Options – LeBron James $10,200, Jimmy Butler $9,800, Gordon Hayward $6,700

Value

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,900) – MKG is very volatile, but he’s playing big minutes for the Hornets. He has played at least 29 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games, playing 32 or more minutes in three of those contests. The Wizards are yielding 44.4 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards and are ranked 25th in defensive rating in their last 10 games. MKG is a tournament option only due to the low floor, but does have 6X upside at this price point. The Hornets are fighting for a playoff spot, so I am expecting him to play 30+ minutes in this contest.

Other Options – Wilson Chandler $5,700, Andre Iguodala $5,100


Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis ($10,100) – Despite leaving the game briefly on Sunday with an ankle injury, Davis managed to eclipse 50 fantasy points for the sixth consecutive time. He is averaging 1.62 fantasy points per minute during that stretch and faces off against the Nuggets who are giving up 1.04 fantasy points per minute to the position over their last five. Denver is also ranked 28th in defensive rating over their last 10 games and continue to play up in pace. Davis has been dominant in this matchup multiple times this season, and there is no reason to think he cannot do so again tonight.

Other Options – Draymond Green $7,900, Dario Saric $7,400

Value

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,500) – Hollis-Jefferson is not playing huge minutes for the Nets, but he’s averaging 25.2 minutes per game over the last six games and 1.11 fantasy points per minute over that stretch. He faced off against the Sixers several nights ago and scored 11 points with seven rebounds, two assists, two blocks and three steals, which was good for 32.25 fantasy points. The Sixers are giving up 21.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.6 blocks and 47.3 fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards in their last 10 games. During that span, they have also played at the ninth highest pace. Hollis-Jefferson should be able to flourish once again in this matchup. The lack of consistent minutes makes him a tournament option only for me, however.

Other Options – Frank Kaminsky $5,300, Kenneth Faried $5,200, Thaddeus Young $4,800


Center

Stud

Rudy Gobert ($8,300) – Karl-Anthony Towns manhandled the Trail Blazers frontcourt last night, scoring 34 points with 12 rebounds, so I am expecting Gobert to take full advantage of the fact that Jusuf Nurkic is out. Gobert has been a beast in recent games, averaging 20.1 points and 14.8 rebounds in his last nine games. Portland has allowed +2.32 points above expectation to opposing centers this season and are giving up 1.04 fantasy points per minute to the position.

Other Options – DeMarcus Cousins $10,300, Karl-Anthony Towns $10,200, Nikola Jokic $9,300, Brook Lopez $7,300

Value

Cody Zeller ($4,700) – Zeller gets a nice matchup tonight against Washington who are giving up 1.16 fantasy points per minute to opposing centers in their last 10 games. He has averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute against the Wizards this season, scoring 30+ fantasy points in each of the last two meetings against them. At this price, it will not take much to pay off his salary.

Other Options – Jonas Valanciunas $5,900, Steven Adams $4,300

Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.