Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday April 4th and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.
POINT GUARD TARGETS
Stephen Curry at DAL ($9,300) – Curry is facing a team he’s found much success against this season. For the season he’s averaging 46 fantasy points per game, but against the Mavericks he averages 53 fantasy points per game. He has scored 25 or more real points in five consecutive games. Curry is leading the MVP run and is one of best options any time he’s playing. It’s never a bad idea to play Curry.
Other Studs: Chris Paul $9,700, John Wall $9,000, Reggie Jackson $8,500, and Damian Lillard $7,800
Deron Williams at ATL ($6,300) – Many may be looking at this price and thinking to themselves, is this really value? The answer is yes. Williams is playing at a high level as of late. In the last six games he’s averaging 37 fantasy points per game. In order hit value he needs 34 fantasy points and he’s topped that five times in the last seven games. He hasn’t fared well against the Hawks this season, but I’m not concerned. The Nets are playing well and the Hawks don’t defend well against point guards. They allow 50.2 fantasy points per game. I’d continue to roll with Williams until his price meets his expected value or until he cools off.
Other Values: Rajon Rondo $5,900, Jeff Teague $5,800, and Trey Burke $5,600
SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS
Dwayne Wade at DET ($7,100) – Wade suffered a knee injury on Thursday night, but with the Heat hanging on for dear life to the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, he will do everything in his power to get on the court. Even at less than 100 percent, I feel comfortable playing Wade ahead of some of the other high-level options. First, he has the best matchup of the bunch by far. The Pistons surrender the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. Secondly, Wade scored 55 fantasy points in his last matchup against the Pistons. He’s also the cheapest of the high-end shooting guards. I can understand if you’re hesitant to start Wade tonight and if that’s the case any of the other players listed below make a great play. However, if Wade is active, he’s always capable of scoring 40+ fantasy points at less of a financial risk.
Other Studs: Tyreke Evans $7,600, Victor Oladipo $7,500, and Klay Thompson $7,300
Gerald Henderson vs. PHI ($5,700) – Henderson has seen an uptick in usage in the last couple of games due to the injury to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Tonight he plays the Sixers who yield the second most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards (46.3). In two games against the Sixers this season, Henderson is averaging 32 fantasy points per game which is 11 more fantasy points per game than his season average. Needless to say, he’s exploits this matchup when it presents itself. In the last six games he’s averaging 28 fantasy points per game and has topped 30 fantasy points three times in that span.
Other Values: Kyle Korver $4,500 and Markel Brown $4,000 (punt play)
SMALL FORWARD TARGETS
Gordon Hayward at PHO ($7,800) – As in most other Saturday’s, Hayward is the top available small forward. The good news is he’s usually not going to put a big dent on your salary cap. Hayward has played better than his norm against the Suns this season as he averages 40.9 fantasy points against them in two games, nearly six more points than his yearly average. He heads to Phoenix on a fairly decent streak as he’s topped 36 fantasy points in three of the last four games, including two 40+ fantasy point performances. He should have no trouble continuing his success against the Suns this evening.
Other Studs: None
Tobias Harris at MIL ($6,400) – I really liked Harris on Friday night and think he makes a great value play again tonight. While he doesn’t have an entirely high ceiling, he has a steady floor and has a 40+ fantasy point game every now and then. Tonight he faces the Bucks who are allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards over the last 10 games. Harris averages nearly 31 fantasy points per game for the season, but in the last 10 games he has topped that six times. He’s the perfect cash game player and can be sprinkled in tournaments for balance.
Other values: Wilson Chandler $5,800, Matt Barnes $5,200, Quincy Pondexter $4,100, and Richard Jefferson $3,200
POWER FORWARD TARGETS
Blake Griffin at DEN ($8,600) – Of the top three options, Griffin stands out the most because of price and matchup. He plays the Nuggets which surrender 45.1 fantasy points per game and Griffin is averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game against them. He’s playing well lately and should continue to do so against a team he’s dominated this season. The way I see it is that you save some money playing Griffin and still get a shot at a 50+ fantasy point night. Granted his ceiling isn’t what Davis’ is, but he’s still offers a relatively high one.
Other Studs: Anthony Davis $11,400, LaMarcus Aldridge $9,000, and Nerlens Noel $7,900
Pau Milsap vs. BKN ($7,000) – Milsap is the cheapest he’s been in a while so now would be a good time to buy. He needs 38.5 fantasy points to hit value tonight, but is averaging nearly 46 fantasy points against the Nets this season. Power forwards are averaging 49 fantasy points per game against the Nets in their last 10 games, which is fifth most in the time span. Unless the coach decides to bench any of the starters for the Hawks tonight, Milsap should be on the court and filling up the stat sheet. At this price, you can consider it a bargain, so might as well take advantage of it.
Other Values: Thaddeus Young $5,700, Marvin Williams $5,100, and Robert Covington $5,000
Andre Drummond vs. MIA ($8,600) – Drummond has really put on some impressive performances in recent games. He’s topped 45 fantasy points in six of the last 10 games, including five 50+ fantasy point games. He’s taken full advantage of the higher usage rate with Greg Monroe out. Monroe is a game time decision, but even if he does play, Drummond has fared well against the Heat. He averages 49.3 fantasy points against them. I’d ride the hot streak as long as I can.
Other Studs: Rudy Gobert $8,400, Brook Lopez $8,200, DeAndre Jordan $8,100, and Nikola Vucevic $7,600
Jonas Valanciunas vs. BOS ($6,000) – Valanciunas has been playing well as of late. He averages nearly 27 fantasy points for the season, but has topped that in eight of the last 10 games. In the one game he played against Boston, he scored 32 fantasy points. Boston has struggled even more than they normally do against centers in their last 10 games, allowing 55 fantasy points per game in that span. This is that perfect storm where a player that’s playing well faces a team that has been struggling defensively.
Other values: Tyson Chandler $5,600 and Andrew Bogut $4,900