We’ve got two games in tonight’s slate. Both of these series are tied at 2-2, so I’m expecting each team to come out and give it their all. Despite such a small slate, we’ve got plenty of DFS NBA action in our lobby. Let’s take a look at some of tonight’s players to target.
Isaiah Thomas – BOS at ATL – $8,600 – Thomas has played lights out in all but one game this series. He has topped 47 fantasy points in three of the four games. This comes to little surprise as he had some big games against them in the regular season as well. The series is tied 2-2 and tonight they will play in Atlanta where Thomas hasn’t played his best. However, he did drop 47.25 fantasy points in the first game of the series which took place in Atlanta. He has a high usage rate and is by far the team’s best scoring option. Thomas offers a safe floor to go along with a high ceiling. He’s my top point guard play this evening and one of the best options in the slate.
Other Options – Kyle Lowry $8,000
Cory Joseph – TOR vs. IND – $3,400 – Aside from the last game, Joseph has scored 20 or more fantasy points in each game this series. In the first four games of the series, he’s averaging 21.5 minutes, 11 points, and 19.2 fantasy points. He needs just 17 fantasy points to hit value, which is something he is very capable of doing. The uncertainty the amount of minutes he will play tonight is concerning, but he’s almost a lock to pay off his salary if he plays the amount of minutes he’s played most of the series. His low salary will allow you to spend up in other spots. The risk/reward factor favors Joseph in this spot. It’s a good matchup as the Pacers have allowed +2.02 points above expectations to point guards, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Options – Marcus Smart $5,300, George Hill $4,400, Dennis Schroeder $2,800
Evan Turner – BOS at ATL – $6,600 – Evan Turner has made the best of his extra playing time and usage with Avery Bradley out. He’s averaging 36.5 minutes, 14 points, 1.8 steals, 5.3 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 33.5 fantasy points per game this series. He has topped 30 fantasy points in all but one of the four games this series and hasn’t scored fewer than 23.75 fantasy points. It’s a small slate, so looking for consistency and upside is important. He offers both. Turner has the best shot to score the most fantasy points of all shooting guards tonight.
Other Options – DeMar DeRozan $6,800
Monta Ellis – IND at TOR – $5,500 – Ellis is averaging 31.5 minutes, 11 points, 2.3 steals, 3.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 26.4 fantasy points per game thus far in the post season. These numbers aren’t quite what they were in the regular season, but it’s expected against a good defensive team. That being said, his two best games in the series came in Toronto, where this game is being played. He scored 30+ fantasy points in each of those games. At this price he needs 27.5 fantasy points to hit value. He’s topped that twice in the last four games. Ellis offers a 20 point floor with 35+ fantasy point upside. That’s a solid bargain at this salary.
Other Options – Kyle Korver $4,200
Paul George– IND at TOR – $9,400 – George has been one game on and one game off so far in the series. If that trend continues, tonight is the on night. He has topped 50 fantasy points in two of the last four games. He hasn’t played particularly well against the Raptors this season, but has displayed his 50 point upside in three of the eight games played against them. He’s one of the few players with 60+ fantasy point upside on the slate, making him someone that has to be considered.
Kent Bazemore – ATL vs. BOS – $5,900 – Bazemore is probable for tonight’s game with a knee injury, but has played through it the entire post season, so I’m fully anticipating for him to be on the court tonight. He’s having himself a solid post season, averaging 34.25 minutes, 13.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 31.9 fantasy points per game. This is a good matchup for Bazemore as the Celtics have allowed +1.99 points above expectations to small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. He should play a big role in tonight’s game as the Hawks look to retake the lead in the series.
Other Options – Jae Crowder $6,000
Paul Millsap – ATL vs. BOS – $8,700 – Millsap exploded for 79.25 fantasy points in the last game against the Celtics. He scored 45 points, grabbed 13 boards, blocked four shots, had two steals, and drained three from beyond the arc. While it’s unlikely that he repeats that performance, we got a glimpsed of the type of upside he offers. After all, this is the second time this season he topped 70 fantasy points against the Celtics. He has struggled in this series, but that kind of game could be just what he needed to get out of the funk. Milsap should be able to dominate the boards against the Celtics as they surrender the second most rebounds per game. I’m expecting him to pick up where he left off last game and have another strong performance. His team needs him as they’re trying to regain the lead in the series. He’s by far the best PF option of the slate.
Jonas Jerebko – BOS at ATL – $4,000 – Jerebko has now played 30+ minutes in two consecutive games and that trend could continue this evening. In the last two games, he’s averaging 34 minutes, 13.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 34.3 fantasy points per game. He has a double-double in back-to-back games. He has made his way into the starting lineup ahead of Jared Sullinger and due to his efficiency; he is expected to remain in the starting lineup. His price has not adjusted accordingly, making him a very good bargain. He needs just 20 fantasy points to pay off his salary and has smashed that in consecutive games. Give him a go.
Other Options – Myles Turner $5,200 (if Mahinmi sits out), Amir Johnson $5,100
Al Horford – ATL vs. BOS – $7,800 – Horford is dealing with a groin injury but was able to play through it in Sunday’s overtime loss, so barring any setbacks, he should play tonight. He’s having a solid post season thus far, averaging 35.5 minutes, 13.5 points, three blocks, 9.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, one steal, and 39.7 fantasy points per game. He has topped 38 fantasy points in all but one game. It’s not surprising as he has fared well against the Celtics the entire season averaging +6.34 points above expectations and has a 75 percent consistency rate against them. As I mentioned above, the Celtics surrender the second most rebounds per game which should create plenty of rebounding opportunities for Horford. He’s the best option at center tonight and is worth paying up for.
Other Options – Jonas Valanciunas $6,700