The last Tuesday of the regular season tips off with a five game slate. The Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder have already clinched their playoff spot and have nothing to play for. The Raptors no longer have a shot at the number one seed in the East and are locked in at the two seed, so they to have nothing to play for. I bring this to your attention because some of the starters on these teams could sit out tonight to rest and get ready for the post season. It’s something to keep an eye on throughout the day.
Players I’m expecting to sit tonight: Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Reddick, Kyle Lowry, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Paul George. These are all valuable players that could rest tonight. If they play without restrictions, feel free to give them a go.
Goran Dragic – MIA at DET – $6,700 – I’m anticipating that most of the elite point guards will rest tonight, making Dragic my top option at this position on the slate. The Heat still has something to play for. If they win tonight, they move to the three seed and they’ve played better at home than on the road all season, so home court advantage in the first round is definitely something they want. Dragic has really stepped it up since the All Star break and continues to play well. In his last 10 games, he is averaging 33 minutes, 16.3 points, 5.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 32.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game. In that span, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 2.21 points. In two games against the Pistons this season, he’s averaging 30.1 fantasy points per game. This is a good matchup for Dragic as the Pistons have allowed +2.17 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs.
Other Options – Ish Smith $6,500, Reggie Jackson $6,400
Jerian Grant – NYK at IND – $4,200 – Grant should continue to see plenty of playing time tonight as the Knicks look to give their rookie as much run as possible to close out the season. In the last six games, he’s averaging 28 minutes, 12.5 points, 3.2 assists, three rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 24.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game. He has played 30 or more minutes in two consecutive games and has scored double-digit real points in three consecutive games. The Pacers have allowed +1.21 points above expectation to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Labs. This is a great example of opportunity cost and he is someone to consider tonight.
Other Options – Cory Joseph $3,500, Cameron Payne $3,000 (if they start)
Dwayne Wade – MIA at DET – $6,300 – As I mentioned above the Heat have something to play for tonight, so it’s very unlikely that their starters rest. Wade has had a good season this year and looks to continue that this evening. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 50 percent of the time by an average of 4.47 points. In that span, he’s averaging 29.3 minutes, 20.3 points, 4.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 34.3 DraftKings fantasy points per game. This is the cheapest Wade has been since March 23rd. He hasn’t played particularly well against the Pistons, but in big games with something at stake, Wade usually shows up. He’s my top shooting guard option in the slate and offers plenty of upside.
Other Options – DeMar DeRozan $7,200 (if he plays)
Dion Waiters – OKC at SAS – $3,600 – It may seem nuts to play Dion Waiters against the Spurs tonight, but I’m expecting both teams to give their starters a rest in this contest. Waiters started last Wednesday when the Thunder sat their starters and played 39 minutes. In that game, he scored 34.5 DraftKings fantasy points. The last four games where he has attempted nine or more shots, he has scored a minimum of 30 DraftKings fantasy points in each of those games. If he gets that start tonight, chances are he will attempt plenty of shots and will be in a good spot to pay off his salary.
Other Options – Norman Powell $3,900, Josh Richardson $3,800, Austin Rivers $3,300 (if he starts)
Carmelo Anthony– NYK at IND – $7,500 – The minutes have dipped for Melo as the season winds down, but his production remains solid. Despite averaging 28.5 minutes in his last four games, Melo is averaging 32.6 DraftKings fantasy points. He hasn’t scored fewer than 28 DKFP in that span. His usage remains high when he’s on the court, he remains efficient, and his price has dropped. All of which are good reasons to like him tonight. Not to mention, he offers the most upside of the potentially active small forwards. Chances are he will play fewer than 30 minutes in the Knicks season finale, but he’s proven he can produce in that scenario. He’s more of a tournament play than a cash game play.
Other Options – Robert Covington $6,800
Kyle Anderson – SAS vs. OKC – $3,300 – If you’re looking for some major salary relief, Anderson is your guy. Keep in mind; he is only a consideration if Kawhi Leonard sits tonight. In nine games without Leonard, Anderson is averaging 20.9 DraftKings fantasy points and 30.2 minutes per game. He offers a low floor, but only needs 16.5 DraftKings fantasy points to pay off his salary and that’s something he’s capable of doing. The Thunder have allowed +1.02 points above expectations to small forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Keep an eye on what happens with the Spurs starters tonight, but if he starts, Anderson is a solid value play.
Other Options – Tobias Harris $5,800, Luol Deng $5,600, Matt Barnes $5,400, Jerami Grant $4,800, Derrick Williams $4,300
Zach Randolph – MEM vs. LAC – $6,700 – Although they have clinched a playoff spot, the Grizzlies may not have the luxury to bench some of their starters as they have been plagued by injuries and are shorthanded as it is. Randolph has exceeded value in six of his last 10 games by an average of 6.98 points. In that span, he’s averaging 32.4 minutes, 17.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 35.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game. He has fared well against the Clippers this year, averaging 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 54.8 DraftKings fantasy points in two games against them. He hasn’t scored fewer than 49 DraftKings fantasy points in any of those contests. The Clippers allow the second most rebounds per game to opponents and have a -4.6 differential. He should have his way in the paint and should be able to continue his success against the Clippers in tonight’s contest.
Other Options – Blake Griffin $7,100, Nerlens Noel $6,200
Myles Turner – IND vs. NYK – $4,400 – If you remove the Cleveland game where he only played five minutes, Turner is averaging 25.2 minutes per game in his last 9 games. In that span, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 26.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game. He has displayed his 40+ fantasy point upside several times in the last 10 games and has exceeded value in six of those games by an average of 5.32 points. The Knicks have allowed +1.24 points above expectations to power forwards, per Fantasy Labs. Turner has done well against the Knicks this season averaging 28.1 fantasy points and 30 minutes per game against them. He shouldn’t have any issues paying off his salary and has 6X potential.
Other Options – David West $4,100, Jason Thompson $3,000 (if he starts)
Hassan Whiteside – MIA at DET – $8,700 – Whiteside is the best center option on the slate and also one of my favorite plays tonight. He comes at a hefty price, but offers plenty of upside and a safe floor. The Pistons have allowed +3.62 points above expectations to centers, per Fantasy Labs. In three games against the Pistons this season, Whiteside is averaging 15 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, and 40.8 DraftKings fantasy points. He has exceeded value in seven of his last 10 games by an average of 4.51 points. In that span, he’s averaging 30.3 minutes, 17 points, 13.2 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, and 42.8 fantasy points per game. He has scored fewer than 40 DraftKings fantasy points just twice in his last nine games. He’s playing well and has been very efficient. Give him a go!
Other Options – Andre Drummond $7,400
Steve Adams – OKC at SAS – $4,000 – Adams has played well in recent games and has now topped 20 DraftKings fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. In his last 10 game, he has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 5.07 points. In that span, he’s averaging 26.8 minutes, 9.2 points, eight rebounds, 0.9 blocks, and 24.05 DraftKings fantasy points per game. Given that the Thunder could rest most of their starters tonight, Adams should see a minor uptick in usage. Regardless, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t pay off his salary tonight. He only needs 20 DraftKings fantasy points to do so.
Other Options – Ian Mahinmi $4,500, Cole Aldrich $4,000 (if he starts), Boban Marjanovic $3,300 (if he starts)
Please note: There could be a lot of news regarding lineups coming out later in the day, make sure to keep an eye on that as it can open some value plays that weren’t noted on this article.