Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday April 11th and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.
POINT GUARD TARGETS
Chris Paul vs. MEM ($9,600) – This is a big game for the Clippers tonight as they still have a chance to move up to the number two seed. I’m not too concerned with them resting players because of that. On paper this doesn’t appear like a good matchup because the Grizzlies are a good defending team, but Paul has managed to do just fine against them. In three games played against Memphis, he’s averaging 50.3 fantasy points per game versus his yearly average of 44.8 fantasy points. With a lot on the line heading into the playoffs, I’m expecting both teams to come out guns hot. Paul should be in for another productive evening.
Other Studs: Stephen Curry $9,500 and Damian Lillard $7,900
Zach LaVine at GS ($6,000) – The Timberwolves don’t have anything to play for at this point, but their young players have played well to close out the season. With Ricky Rubio on the shelf, LaVine has seen a boost in usage rate and has taken advantage of this opportunity to the fullest. In the last 10 games he’s averaging 18.3 points per game, while for the season he averages 9.4 points per game. So he’s doubled his production with more playing time. Tonight he faces the Warriors who could rest some players as they already have the Western Conference locked up and are looking forward to the playoffs. In the last three games, LaVine has topped 30 fantasy points in each of them. He’s grabbed five boards, has scored 18 or more points, has 21 total assists, and is averaging one steal per game in that span. He makes a solid play at this reasonable price.
Other Values: Ish Smith $6,400, Aaron Brooks $5,600, Langston Galloway $5,500, and Shaun Livingston $3,200 (if he starts due to resting of the starters)
SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS
Dwayne Wade vs. TOR ($7,200) – The Heat have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but so long is there’s a chance, number three will be out on the court giving it his all. It’s clear that Wade isn’t 100 percent. In the last game he shot an abysmal 4-20 from the court. With that said, he’s fared well against the Raptors this season, averaging 42.3 fantasy points per game against them. With the season on the line, I’m expecting him to bring everything he has.
Other Studs: DeMar Rozan $8,100, Victor Oladipo $7,200, and Klay Thompson $7,000
J.J. Reddick vs. MEM ($6,300) – With not very many cheap options available, I went with the mid-level shooting guard I felt has the most to offer. Reddick has topped 3 5 fantasy points in four of the last six games and has scored 25 or more real points four times in that span as well. He’s shooting the ball well and despite Jamal Crawford back from his injury, Reddick continues to see a ton of minutes. Like I mentioned above with Chris Paul, the Clippers have a lot to play for and should bring their A game tonight. He needs about 34 fantasy points to hit value, which he’s clearly capable of.
Other Values: Kevin Martin $6,000 and Lou Williams $5,500
SMALL FORWARD TARGETS
Gordon Hayward at POR ($7,500) – As usual, Hayward is the top option at the small forward position on a Saturday. The only concern with him today is the possibility of the Jazz resting him, so if you roll with him make sure to keep an eye on his status. This is a good matchup for Hayward, as he has played well against the Trailblazers this season. In two games against them, he is averaging 40 fantasy points per game. His numbers and minutes haven’t been consistent as of late, so he isn’t as safe of a bet as he’s been all season. If he’s going to play his normal role today, there’s no reason to think he can’t produce quality numbers. However it is worth noting that in the last six games he’s played over thirty minutes, he’s topped 36 fantasy points five times.
Other Studs: None
Andrew Wiggins at GS ($6,800) – Wiggins is putting any debate to his rookie of the year race to an end with his play in recent games. He has scored more than 20 real points in nine of the last 10 games and has scored 29 points in consecutive games. As far as fantasy points, well he’s producing in that department as well. In the last 10 games, he’s topped 40 fantasy points five times, including a 54 fantasy point game against the Lakers last night. I’d ride the hot hand and give Wiggins a go tonight. He provides upside and a steady floor.
Other values: Tobias Harris $6,600, Luol Deng $5,500, Mike Dunleavy $4,800, and Rodney Hood $4,700
POWER FORWARD TARGETS
Pau Gasol vs. PHI ($8,300) – The Bulls take on the Sixers tonight in a game they should be able to dominate. Gasol is averaging 22 points and 14 rebounds against them this season, as well as 45 fantasy points. He leads the NBA in double-doubles which is always a plus given the fact that you get 1.5 points when a player gets a double-double. Most of his numbers across the board are higher anytime he plays against Philadelphia and that stat should remain the same this evening. He’s tonight’s top power forward play hands down and should be in your lineups.
Other Studs: Blake Griffin $8,700
Zach Randolph at LAC ($6,600) – At this price it’s difficult to dismiss Randolph despite some recent inconsistencies. That being said, he’s now gone two consecutive games with a double-double and topping 33 fantasy points in each of those contests. It appears that the back injury isn’t bothering him as much and that his game is getting back on track. He’s not too much of a risky because of the price you’re paying and this would be a good time to take advantage of that. Not to mention, the Clippers surrender the third most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards (45.7).
Other Values: Robert Convington $5,300, Taj Gibson $4,900, and Tyler Hansbrough $4,000
Nikola Vucevic vs. NYK ($7,700) – Vucevic has absolutely crushed the Knicks this season, but then again who hasn’t? In three games this season versus New York, he’s averaging 27 points, 16 boards, and 51.6 fantasy points. The Knicks surrender the fourth most fantasy points per game against centers (49.8) and have allowed 56.3 fantasy points per game in their last 10 games. Vucevic should be able to dominate the boards tonight and get his first double-double of the last three games. He’s the third most expensive center, but has the best matchup of the three and the best chance to completely dominate.
Other Studs: DeAndre Jordan $8,000, Rudy Gobert $7,900, Marc Gasol $7,000, and Hassan Whiteside $7,000
Andrew Bogut vs. MIN ($5,300) – Bogut has stepped up his production in recent games and has a favorable matchup tonight. The Timberwolves surrender the second most fantasy points per game to opposing centers (50.8). He has played 28 or more minutes in consecutive games, but prior to those two games he went back-to-back games with less than 20 minutes played in each game. However, that didn’t slow down his production one bit as he was able to top 22 fantasy points in each of those games. The only concern I have is the fact that the Warriors could rest some starters, including Bogut. If he plays and you don’t want to pay up for this position, he can be considered a solid value play against Minnesota tonight.
Other values: Joahkim Noah $6,000 and Jonas Valanciunas $6,000