NBA Picks: Spreads, Prop Bets, Parlays to Consider for February 12

There are a few games with playoff vibes on the slate but they are mostly buried within a grouping of terrible matchups. The slate features the Pelicans and their delicate handling of Anthony Davis, the Lakers against the tanking Hawks and also the late-night hammer with Jazz-Warriors, a very likely future playoff matchup. We are going to focus on the obvious mismatches of these games and put together a nice betting sheet centered around some good historical metrics:

BOSTON CELTICS AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

76ERS (-6.5)

With Kyrie Irving out due to a knee injury, this game is a slightly muted version of a possible playoff match between two top teams in the East. The 76ers have been incredible since acquiring Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, and in those two games since he joined the squad, Philadelphia has a net rating of 14.9, an improvement of nine points over their 10-game. A key stat in this matchup from a betting perspective is the Celtics being an awful underdog against Eastern Conference opponents, failing to cover the spread in their last five games in the instance, and covering the spread 33 percent of the time as underdogs this season. With Kyrie Irving sidelined and the Celtics issues with maintaining competitiveness in game, the 76ers spread is a bit rich but a solid bet as an anchor to your action.


Terry Rozier: 14.5 Points

Over (-109)

This is already the less likely side to bet on this total with the under being -122, but I think there is some meat on this bone if we look a little deeper. Rozier has scored at least 14 points in five of the nine games that he has started this season, and has hit at least 16 in his last two games, including scoring 19 points in just 19 minutes against the Lakers. It’s all about efficiency with Rozier because he isn’t a volume shooter, and that’s where the matchups matter for a guy like him. The 76ers allow the highest shooting percentage and third-highest overall efficiency over average to opposing point guards in the last 10 games, which is key to Rozier’s prop. Even with the increased offensive potential they gained from Tobias Harris, the 76ers haven’t done much to improve the mid-range defense, and it should set up well for Rozier in this position.


Anthony Davis: 25.5 Points

Under (-115)

This is a relatively iffy situation that we can leverage and assume a more plausible course of events in terms of a player in flux. Anthony Davis is, obviously, a monster. He scored 32 points in just 25 minutes a couple days ago against the Timberwolves. He has multiple 20-20 games on the season. He’s a beast. But he’s also on a strict minutes limit and is being monitored heavily as a prized chip in the trade talks that will happen come summer. He has not surpassed 34 minutes since returning from injury and with how injury prone he is (rather, locker room prone), it’s a fair concern that there isn’t much opportunity for mistakes to happen for him to meet what would generally be an accessible prop. The Magic offer a great efficiency matchup and give up the 8th most points to opposing centers over the last ten games, but in a situation with so much uncertainty, it’s always better to be on the side of risk rather than caution. The under is the right bet in this scenario.


Spurs vs. Grizzlies: Total points 209

Over (-112)

The difference between these two teams is pretty stark on either side of the court, and I think it sets up well for this game to be higher scoring than most will assume. The Spurs are pretty good offensively over the last 10 games with the seventh-best offensive rating in the league, while the Grizzlies are very bad (put lightly) with a rating of 103 in the same time period. However, the story is flipped when it comes to defense. The Spurs are actually the worst team on defense over the last 10 games with a rating of 120, whereas the Grizzlies are the third best at 105. My assumption is that the strength of the Spurs’ offense is enough to push past the Grizzlies’ defense and the weakness of the Spurs’ defense will be enough to make the Grizzlies’ offense at least average, leading to a higher scoring game. Moreover, the Spurs have given up at least 120 points in each of their last four games and would realistically only have to give up 106 for this over to hit if the Spurs indeed cover.


Parlay of the Day:

Donovan Mitchell over 25.5 points, 76ers spread, Lakers spread (+611)

The anchor of this parlay is the 76ers covering the spread against the Celtics without Kyrie Irving, something that feels comfortable based on the Celtics being bad underdogs (only covering 33 percent of the time) and the 76ers being world-beaters since acquiring Tobias Harris. The other two legs are where we build that ROI that matters with a parlay. Donovan Mitchell gets a matchup with the Warriors and is a nine-point dog, meaning that there should be plenty of opportunities to just chuck up 3-point attempts in a catch-up effort.

Even better is the efficiency that the Warriors allow to guards, where they are the best possible matchup for shooting guards at 15.2% above average and the seventh-best against point guards at 3.9 percent above average. If the Jazz want to stay in the game, Mitchell is going to have to eat, and with only one game under 20 points in his last 20, he is a prime spot to target for a points prop.

The final piece to this puzzle is a Lakers cover against the tanking Hawks. Now, the Lakers are bad. They might not make the playoffs. LeBron is mad at things. But the Hawks are literally trying to lose games, and LeBron tends to show up in games against vastly inferior competition. So long as the Hawks do their job and give the game away, they have an average margin of loss by over 15 points and should give plenty of breathing room for a Lakers cover.


Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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