We have a seven game slate on tap for Monday night NBA DFS action. Only two games have totals that are above 210, but we do have all the rest in a respectable range between 195-205. Some of the spreads are starting to creep up a little higher as well. Pinpointing which games make sense to target and which could be blowouts is a key to cashing tonight. There is enough value to fit in some stars, but picking the stars who get the most run in closer games will likely decide who makes money and who does not in tournaments today.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Over/Under: 195
Line: Cavs – 12.5

Vegas thinks the Cavs will win this game pretty easily. With the total being on the lower side of 200, it is not a great spot to target many of the Cavs players. Lebron should have a good game, but good games do not pay off his sky high price tag. He admits he wants to play less minutes and that the plan is to get Kevin Love more involved offensively. If anyone makes for a solid target it would probably be love. Whether the game is close or not, Matthew Dellavedova is an intriguing option at only $3200. He sees time in close games as well as blowouts, so his minutes are probably the safest, while his price tag of only $3200 is very friendly to the budget. On the flip side, I do not expect the Sixers to keep this game close, but they do still have some nice fantasy options. The young guys in Nerlens Noel and Jahil Okafor are seeing court time no matter the score. Philly wants to get some experience for their young bg man tandem, so they are basically match up proof as long as they see big minutes regardless of the scoreboard.

Targets

  • Kevin Love ($7500)
  • Matthew Dellavedova ($3200)
  • Nerlens Noel ($6900)
  • Jahlil Okafor ($6100)


San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

Over/Under: 204
Line:Spurs -7

This could be a game with some sneaky upside for fantasy. I doubt this game will go highly owned, but a total above 200 with a spread of only 7 with the Knicks at home is a nice spot. Aaron Afflalo has a hamstring issue and the Knicks back court is pretty weak. That is why we have seen Langston Galloway play some big minutes recently and produce. The same goes for Manu Ginobili on the other side who tends to be the trigger man off the bench for the Spurs second unit, while getting some crunch time minutes as well. Both of these guys are a little bit too cheap and offer some nice upside. As for the stars, it’s a tough match up for Carmelo who should see a lot of Kawhi Leonard defense. He is going to take his shots one way or another and that makes him an option to consider since there is no penalty here for missed shots. On the other end, he will have his hands full trying to check Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is being more proactive on the offensive end this season, so that should continue to lead to more fantasy production. If this game stays close and is as high scoring as Vegas expects, we could see a few useful stat lines that produce solid fantasy scores here.

Targets

  • Langston Galloway ($4400)
  • Carmelo Anthony ($8900)
  • Manu Ginobili ($4200)
  • Kawhi Leonard ($7700)


Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

Over/Under: 197
Line: Nets -1.5

This game is another one with some really nice mid-tier priced fantasy options. Vegas expects a decent total and the game to stay close. That likely means we see full run for all the starters on both teams. We have a lot of solid options in the $6-$7K range here that have high usage rates and are very involved in their team’s offense. Jarrett Jack coming back from injury still seems a little underpriced. MCW has never been known as a lock down defender and wherever he goes it seems good stats for opposing point men follow. Greg Monroe and Brook Lopez are the focal points of their teams offenses. Both guys will see a ton of touches and make for decent plays at a slight discount to some of the big studs. Giannis Antetekounmpo made his return to the lineup and did not disappoint. The Greek freak has insane athletic ability and fantasy upside. He seems to be way underpriced at $6400 and you should take advantage of it before he gets back up into the $7K+ range where he belongs.

Targets

  • Jarrett Jack ($6000)
  • Brook Lopez ($7000)
  • Greg Monroe ($7900)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo ($6400)


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 215
Line: Thunder -4

This game has TRAP written all over it. Many will look at the high total and see the two teams playing and assume that this is the game to target, but I have my doubts. You have three of the top stars on the night playing here and my fear is that it turns into a major blow out. Dwight Howard, Donatas Montiejunas, and Terrence Jones are all likely out for the Rockets. That means you will see Capela and Harrell likely playing big minutes at low prices. The Rockets have a string of three straight twenty point losses. When healthy, this would be a good match up, but the depleted squad they are running out may have a very tough time handling OKC. My main worry with all these high priced stars is the game flow. If OKC does get the big lead that Houston has been surrendering lately, we could see a fourth quarter that features guys like Harden, Westbrook, and Durant on the bench. All 3 guys will be main contributors when they are in the game, but even five less minutes would be enough to have at least 2 of the 3 fall short of value. I think one of them likely has a monster game, but if you want to stack multiple stars from this one, I think it is somewhat foolish given the likelihood it gets out of hand.

Targets

  • Russell Westbrook ($10300)
  • Kevin Durant ($9700)
  • James Harden ($9900)
  • Clint Capela ($4200)


Portland Trailblazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Over/Under: 202
Line: Timberwolves -5

This match up features two teams who play fast and are allergic to defense. We could see some huge stat lines in what is likely to be an up and down affair. Damian Lilliard and Ricky Rubio have the ball in their hands a lot. Neither guy plays much defense and both guys are explosive enough to push the pace and generate big stat lines. Rubio does it in a more well rounded way, while Lilliard is a pure scorer from the point guard spot. Towns and Aminu are both producing well and playing big minutes for their respective teams. Each has a friendly enough price to fit into most lineups and that is why I think they both make for solid value plays on this slate. The game should be high scoring and fun to watch, as long as your idea of fun does not include solid defense from the point guard spot.

Targets

  • Karl Anthony-Towns ($6100)
  • Ricky Rubio ($7100)
  • Damian Lillard ($9200)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu ($4800)


Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors

Over/Under: 201
Line: Warriors -8

This game features a big contrast in style, but it might be the reason why certain guys make sense to use. Steph Curry is legit. Everyone is balking at buying him over $10K with Westbrook being only $100 more, but the spot for Steph may be better than the one for Westbrook. Memphis normally plays a slower paced game and great defense. While this does not seem like it would be good for Steph, here’s the case. The lower scoring game means the Warriors likely will not run up a huge lead and sit the starters for the fourth quarter. The reputation of the Grizzlies as a defensive squad will also keep many people off of the Warriors players. While all this is true, Steph is on fire right now. The way he shot the other night, it doesn’t matter who is guarding him. When I can get the reigning MVP at a likely low ownership rate, coming off a few 60 fantasy point performances, and playing in a game that will likely require a full allotment of minutes out of him I will take it. The Warriors do play very efficiently on the defensive end as well, so if you wanted to target anyone on Memphis I would stick to the lower priced guys who are seeing shots and minutes. The Expensive options might not be in a good spot to reach value.

Targets

  • Stephen Curry ($10200)
  • Draymond Green ($7000)
  • Tony Allen ($4300)
  • Jeff Green ($4700)


Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers

Over/Under: 212
Line: Clippers -9

This game is a tough one to figure for fantasy. The Suns have looked good against Portland and Horrible vs. New York, so I have no idea which team shows up here. I do know the Clippers have looked real good and defend their home court very well. The total here is high, so you have to expect some points to be scored. When the Clippers play games where they are expected to blow teams out, Blake Griffin usually handles a lot of the scoring. DeAndre has a good chance to rack up some rebounds against what looks like an aged Tyson Chandler. I think Blake would be my top target f I was looking at anyone on the Clippers. While I love Chris Paul, he is usually content to be the distributor of the ball in games like this and may not try to force the issue with his own offense if it is not needed. On the flip side, for Phoenix to have a shot here they will need Bledsoe to have a monster performance. Brandon Knight has played well lately, but it is never a good idea to start PGs against Chris Paul defense. Wing players tend to own the Clippers as the weak spot on defense is JJ Reddick and the four headed small forward monster they throw out on the floor for a few minutes each. While the total is high and this game can not be ignored, we also expect the stars to handle most of the workload and none of them are cheap enough to be locks to make value.

Targets

  • Eric Bledsoe ($7500)
  • Markieff Morris ($6300)
  • Blake Griffin ($9800)
  • DeAndre Jordan ($8000)