The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

 

Tuesday’s Contests

$100K Sharpshooter – $3 entry fee

$100K Crossover – $27 entry fee

_____________________________________________________

Magic @ Pacers

Game Analysis

Vegas has been slow to post a line on this one with the status of Nikola Vucevic still in question. Without him, the Magic have played a faster pace and really pushed the ball up the floor. They have won both games without him and averaged 111 points in his absence. That’s almost 14 points above their season averages. Of course they are also giving up more points with the pace being up, so it does balance out in the end. Their opponents have also been playing good basketball as the Pacers have won eight of their last nine and played to the under in seven straight. The defense has been a huge reason for this epic run. In the last five games they have only allowed 86, 84, 82, 74, and 86 points. That’s an average of 82.4 points per game, which is incredible. Despite the hot pace and points that Orlando has been putting up, I can not see them being able to do so today against this defense. This should be an interesting match up with an offense on fire vs. a defense that has been lock down. I expect the Pacers to win this one and would probably give them a bump up. I do expect Vucevic to play tonight as well, which should hurt all the other Magic players who had been doing a little more in his absence.

Line:

Players to Watch

  • Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic ($8300)
  • Tobias Harris, SF, Magic ($6900)
  • David West, PF, Pacers ($5600)
  • Soloman Hill, SF, Pacers ($3300)

_____________________________________________________

Pelicans @ Nets

Game Analysis

The Pelicans have won eight of their last ten games. They have come out on top of higher scoring contests, as well as some defensive battles, which means they can win games in many ways. The Nets have lost five of their last seven while scoring just under 100 points during that stretch and giving up slightly over the century mark. They have played to the under in four of their last six. Today’s total seems somewhat low and given the way these two teams have played recently I was a little surprised at who Vegas thinks will win this one and what they expect the score to be. Tyreke Evans did go down late last game with an ankle injury, so that is the only thing I can think of that may be the reason. If he is out, that should open up a lot of usage and value on New Orleans. I would assume Norris Cole takes his place at PG, but the beneficiaries should be Gordon and Davis who are asked to do more.

Line: Nets -2.5, O/U 191.5

Players to Watch

  • Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans ($10700)
  • Norris Cole, PG, Pelicans ($3300)
  • Brook Lopez, C, Nets ($6100)
  • Deron Williams, PG, Nets ($5800)

_____________________________________________________

Raptors @ Spurs

Game Analysis

The Raptors have only won one of their last nine games. They are about even to the over and under recently. They are seeing higher totals, so I put more stock into that then I do the total number of unders. The defense has been the Achilles heel for them as they are now giving up more points than they were earlier in the season. The Spurs on the other side have reeled off five straight victories. Tony Parker is starting to heat up with back to back 40 DK point games, and the entire offense is clicking. They are up to averaging 109 points per game, while holding opponents to 95 during this run. The total is right around where they have played recently and below where the Raptors have been. I see the Spurs staying around where they have been points wise, but worry the Raptors could struggle and keep this game towards the under.

Line: Spurs -7, O/U 206

Players to Watch

  • Terrence Ross, SF, Raptors ($4000)
  • Demar DeRozan, SG, Raptors ($7200)
  • Tony Parker, PG, Spurs ($5500)
  • Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs ($7700)

_____________________________________________________

Cavaliers @ Mavericks

Game Analysis

Cleveland has won seven of it’s last ten and played to the under in seven of those. They have been scoring well over 100 points per game and the recent unders are more a function of improved defense. This will be a problem for the Mavericks today as their scoring is way down from earlier in the year. In fact the Mavericks have now played ten straight games to the under. The pace has also slowed for them, so their scoring defense is down recently as well. I don’t think they can turn around their offensive woe’s today, nor do I think the slower pace will stop the Cavs offense. I know this game is in Dallas, but based off recent history I would have expected a larger spread. I’m thinking the Cavs put up a few points in this one, although may stay below their season averages based off the new slow paced Mavs attack. I think people will use this game heavily today but I see other games that have better chances for fantasy goodness.

Line: Cavs -3.5, O/U 200.5

Players to Watch

  • Kyrie Irving, PG, Cavs ($7400)
  • Kevin Love, PF, Cavs ($7600)
  • Rajon Rondo, PG, Mavs ($6400)
  • Monta Ellis, SG, Mavs ($6900)

_____________________________________________________

Knicks @ Jazz

Game Analysis

Huge spread and lowest O/U make this game one to be cautious of today. The Jazz have been playing some good basketball lately. They are winners of seven out of their last nine and played to the under in all but one of them. Their defense has been outstanding as they are holding teams under 85 points per game during this run. This is not good for the Knicks tonight who have been blown out in three of their last four, lost all of them, and failed to score more than 86 points in any. There is some injury news to discuss here. Jose Calderon is still out and Tim Hardaway Jr. missed the last game with back spasms. That means there’s extra minutes for Langston Galloway and Alexey Shved. Overall I do not think that matters much as the Knicks should struggle to score and the Jazz should be able to control this game and win going away.

Line: Jazz -13, O/U 184.5

Players to Watch

  • Andrea Bargnani, SF, Knicks ($5600)
  • Alexey Shved, PG, Knicks ($3400)
  • Derrick Favors, PF, Jazz ($7400)
  • Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz ($7500)

_____________________________________________________

Pistons @ Lakers

Game Analysis

Tight spread and a total around 200 means we have to take a look at this game. Detroit is reeling with six straight losses. They have only scored triple digits twice and played to the under in the other four games. The routinely see totals in the 195 range, so they have struggled to well below tonight’s number recently. The reason I think the number makes sense though is the Lakers have struggled as well, especially on the defensive end. Los Angeles plays at a faster pace and tends to see totals closer to tonight’s 200 or above. They have been over in six of their last nine which is why I can see a few more points for the Pistons tonight. Point Guards and big men have done well against LA, so I think that also plays into the strengths of Detroit. I do expect the Lakers to match the Pistons scoring as neither team has a lock down defense. This should be a close entertaining hammer game, with the chance to have some late PMR guys really move you up in the standings. Keep an eye on Boozer’s status. He sprained an ankle last game and may be limited or out. Announcements are expected after shoot around, so make sure to monitor the situation.

Line: Pistons -2.5, O/U 199

Players to Watch

  • Jordan Clarkson, PG, Lakers ($5000)
  • Wayne Elington, SG, Lakers ($4700)
  • Reggie Jackson, PG, Pistons ($7000)
  • Greg Monroe, PF, Pistons ($8100)