The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

 

Tuesday Contests

$70K Sharpshooter – $3 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

$100K Crossover – $27 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

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Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons

Game Analysis

Toronto has won four of it’s last six. They have won every game where they scored 100 or more and lost both games in which they failed to reach that mark over this stretch. They have a solid defense that tends to keep teams under 100. They play at a slower pace, but that may have something to do with Kyle Lowry missing a few of those recent games. His availability tonight is still in question, but when healthy, he is an impact player. Detroit has won three of it’s last four and the scoring is up. Greg Monroe has been out, but Reggie Jackson has really stepped in and helped pick up the slack. Monroe looks closer to playing than Lowry does, but there’s no confirmation on either player yet, so check the injury reports. Detroit has been better over the last few games on both ends of the floor. It will be interesting to see if they can keep the momentum going while adding back Monroe to the mix. Most nights this would be one of the top games to target, but despite the six game slate we have some high totals with close spreads. At best this may be the third or fourth best game to target, but we do have a few guys who look interesting in this one.

Line: Raptors -2, O/U 201.5

Players to Watch

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope , SG, Pistons ($4700)
  • Reggie Jackson, PG, Pistons ($7500)
  • Demar DeRozan, SG, Raptors ($7700)
  • Jonas Valaciunas, C, Raptors ($5600)

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Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Game Analysis

A huge Spread in this one, and it has been creeping up. Oklahoma City has won five of their last six. They scored at least 109 points in five of those games. The one game they did not was a 93-75 drubbing of a slow paced Miami team last out. Russell Westbrook has decided to put this team on his back. With Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant both still out, Westbrook has taken over every game. He is a triple double threat on a nightly basis and putting up 30 real life points of more is almost a lock. Los Angeles has been notoriously bad against PGs all season so this is literally the best possible match up. The only question here is whether or not you want to pay the price?

Line: Thunder -10.5, O/U 209

Players to Watch

  • Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder ($13200)
  • Anthony Morrow, SG, Thunder ($4300)
  • Jeremy Lin, PG, Lakers ($4800)
  • Ed Davis, PF, Lakers ($4700)

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Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks

Game Analysis

Miami has won four of their last six. Their scoring is up and their defense is still keeping most opponents under 100 points. With the addition of Dragic they have upped their pace, yet are still one of the tougher teams to score on in the league. They were beaten badly by the Thunder last out, but if you take that game away they have played amazingly efficient basketball recently. Milwaukee has not really clicked as a team since the MCW trade. They have six straight losses, and are struggling on both ends of the floor. Their scoring is down, their opponents scoring is up, and they are playing at a higher pace. This game points to the over today based on recent trends. It is the only total not in the 200s on today’s slate, so it’s not the ideal spot to roll out multiple players even on a short slate. I do think it stays close and competitive though, so all the key players should get full run.

Line: Heat -1, O/U 194

Players to Watch

  • Goran Dragic, PG, Heat ($7000)
  • Dwayne Wade, SG, Heat ($7800)
  • Michael Carter-Wiliams, PG, Bucks ($6800)
  • Giannis Antetekounmpo, SG, Bucks ($7100)

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San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

Game Analysis

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten and played to the over in all but two of those games. Their offense is clicking right now as they have scored 112 points or more in eight of their last ten games. They are playing at a very high pace, but all also managing to limit their opponents to right around 100 per game giving them a double digit average margin of victory.Today they get a Dallas team that is back to playing at a high pace and hitting the over. They have done it with mixed success as they have played .500 basketball for about a month now. Both JJ Barea and Devin Harris might miss this game, so I think we see a few extra minutes from Rondo and Ellis in a paced up game. Ultimately I think the Spurs are rolling again and they should go into Dallas and come out victorious. The total here is high and the spread is close, so this could be a good target for fantasy goodness.

Line: Spurs -2, O/U 205

Players to Watch

  • Rajon Rondo, PG, Mavericks ($5800)
  • Monta Ellis, SG, Mavericks ($6300)
  • Tiago Splitter, C, Spurs ($4300)
  • Tim Duncan, PF, Spurs ($6900)

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Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings

Game Analysis

Philadelphia has played .500 ball over their last eight games. For a team that was 13-49 coming into that stretch it is an improvement. There’s really no discernible patterns to the Sixrs play. Sometimes they pay fast and score a bunch. Sometimes they play slow and both teams finish way below the total. They tend to let their opponents dictate the pace and that could mean good things for fantasy purposes when they visit the Kings. Sacramento has been paced up since the all star break. The new philosophy has them scoring and giving up a lot more points. They had played eight straight games to the over before hitting the under in their last two. Those two games included a 101 and a 109 point offensive performance, so the under was more a product of good defense and the higher totals they are seeing. The total in this one is high and the pace should be as well, so this is definitely a useable game for fantasy purposes.

Line: Kings -8, O/U 206

Players to Watch

  • DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kings ($9600)
  • Rudy Gay, SF, Kings ($7700)
  • Ish Smith, PG, Sixers ($5900)
  • Nerlens Noel, PF, Sixers ($7800)

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Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers

Game Analysis

The Warriors are on the tail end of a back to back, but they blew out Washington last night, so I would not be too concerned about their legs being tired. The Warriors have come out to play, as the have won nine of their last ten games. They have scored over 100 in nine as well and only twice have they allowed an opponent to crack the 100 point mark. They are not only one of the best offenses in the league, but their defense is legit as well. They are one of the few teams who can go into Portland as a seven point favorite and cover it. I think part of the reason we see this spread today is that it is very likely the Trailblazers will be missing a lot of pieces for this one. Aldridge, Batum, and Kaman are all expected to be in street clothes tonight along with Wes Matthews. That’s four guys who started the last time these two teams played that will not be tonight. Facing this Warriors team with a Skeleton squad does not seem to be the way to beat them. This game could turn ugly unless Damian Lilliard goes nuts for Portland. I just do not see who else is going to provide offense for them here today with all the injuries.

Line: Warriors -7, O/U 207

Players to Watch

  • Damian Lilliard, PG, Blazers ($7600)
  • Aaron Afflalo, SG, Blazers ($4300)
  • Andrew Bogut, C, Warriors ($4200)
  • Steph Curry, PG, Warriors ($9400)