The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

 

Friday’s Contests

$100K Sharpshooter – $3 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

$100K Crossover – $27 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

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Bulls @ Hornets

Game Analysis

Chicago has lost three of it’s last four. With all the injuries they have seen the defense is suffering. They have allowed an averaged of 103 points over their last four games and that is way up for a team that routinely is favored in games with totals in the 180s. Charlotte on the other hand has been playing better as they have won five of their last seven and have played to the over in that many as well. They also routinely saw low totals, but their have really picked up the scoring since Mo Williams arrived and that has carried a lot of their recent totals to the upside. I think they will have no problems scoring tomorrow against a Bulls team that is struggling with too many back ups playing big minutes. Normally at full strength I would take Chicago, but the Hornets are at home and have been on a roll, so this could be a good showing for them. Chicago has struggled to stop PGs since Rose went down so I’m banking a lot of this on my love for Mo Williams, but he is in a really nice spot today. Still not sure Kemba is ready to take minutes from him, but that would be my one hold up with Walker back.

Line:

Players to Watch

  • Mo Williams, PG, Hornets ($7600)
  • Marvin Williams, PF, Hornets ($4000)
  • Pau Gasol, PF, Bulls ($8900)
  • Aaron Brooks, PG, Bulls ($5400)

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Kings @ Sixers

Game Analysis

Sacramento has lost five of it’s last seven, but played to the over in all but one of them. They have been scoring an insane amount of points and playing at a very high pace. That also means they have allowed opponents to put up some big scores too. The Sixers have only won two of their last ten, but played to the over in six of them. They have had a couple good scoring games, but for the most part they fail to crack 100. The high totals in their games tend to be due to the opponents scoring and that is perfect for the Kings who can put up points in a hurry. I think this game may even be a bigger run away than Vegas predicts and I think both teams can be expected to play at or above their normal output levels. Definitely one you should look at for fantasy purposes.

Line: Kings -3.5, O/U 206.5

Players to Watch

  • DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kings ($9500)
  • Ben McLemore, SG, Kings ($4200)
  • Isaiah Canaan, PG, Sixers ($4600)
  • Nerlens Noel, PF, Sixers ($6800)

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Magic @ Celtics

Game Analysis

The Magic have lost 6 of their last eight games. They have been playing to the over more recently, but it has a lot to do with the low totals they were seeing based off their earlier season totals. They have both scored and given up well over 100 in various games recently, so they can definitely play in faster paced games like this one should be. The Celtics have won four of their last five. All of the totals have ended up right around totals number lately, so this one should not be much different. The big change for them is on the injury front. Isiah Thomas is out again, so Evan Turner, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley all get a few more minutes and higher usage. Vegas still likes them even without IT2, so some or all of those guys are expected to play well. None of them are really super pricey either.

Line: Celtics -5, O/U 195

Players to Watch

  • Avery Bradley, PG, Celtics ($5100)
  • Evan Turner, PG, Celtics ($5300)
  • Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic ($8000)
  • Tobias Harris, SF, Magic ($6700)

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Heat @ Raptors

Game Analysis

Miami has won four of it’s last six and played to the over in four of those as well. They have averaged 105 points over their last six games and have only given up around 95. The Raptors have only one win in their last ten. They have been downright horrible lately. Their margin of loss and points allowed are up huge and it’s not a surprise that has lead to a mounting number of losses. Vegas actually likes them today despite all the heat players being healthy except for Deng. I’m not sure who I like to win, but I do think this will be one of the higher scoring games on the day and that is always good for fantasy purposes.

Line: Raptors -5, O/U 205.5

Players to Watch

  • Dwyane Wade, SG, Heat ($7200)
  • Goran Dragic, PG, Heat ($6200)
  • Kyle Lowry, PG, Raptors ($7100)
  • Terrence Ross, SF, Raptors ($4300)

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Timberwolves @ Thunder

Game Analysis

Kevin Durant is still out, so the big question here is whether everyone will continue to roster Russell Westbrook at $12,500? GPP value at that price is over 75 fantasy points, which sounds ridiculous. The more ridiculous part of it is that he has done that in 4 of his last six. Both teams routinely see spreads over 200 and in paced up games tend to see spreads reach over 210. This should be one of those games, so most of the guys on both teams are in play for me today. In the last eight games, both the Thunder and their opponents have scored triple digits. The Wolves haves have allowed most of their opponents to score over 100 recently and very rarely reached it themselves, which means there is a chance this could get ugly away from home for them. The Thunder are not known as a lock down defense though, so I do not think scoring on either side will be much of a problem.

Line:

Players to Watch

  • Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder ($12500)
  • Enes Kanter, C, Thunder ($5800)
  • Gorgui Dieng, C, Timberwolves ($5000)
  • Ricky Rubio, PG, Timberwolves ($8100)

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Clippers @ Mavericks

Game Analysis

The Clippers have won five of their last seven and played under that many times as well. This is not too concerning, because the totals have been higher than we have today. The team that should be keeping the total down in this one is the Mavericks. They have played to the under in nine of their last ten and have really slowed the pace. At first the totals were pretty high so it was not something I put much stock in, but a few of them lately have been below today and still fell short. The once mighty Mavs offense has only managed to score 100 in three of the last ten games. They have been playing slow so the opponents scoring has also been down, but Vegas seems to have ratcheted the totals down recently so I think it comes close today. The only real injury concern is with Jamal Crawford today. Paul is listed as questionable but looks likely to play again. This is a close spread and a high total, so definitely worth including in your GPPs.

Line: Mavericks -1, O/U 202.5

Players to Watch

  • JJ Redick, SG, Clippers ($6200)
  • DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers ($8900)
  • Monta Ellis, SG, Mavericks ($7000)
  • Rajon Rondo, PG, Mavericks ($6100)

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Warriors @ Nuggets

Game Analysis

The Warriors have won seven of the last eight. They have also played to the under in seven of those games which is shocking. Denver also is a high scoring team, but they too have been bad lately. They have been playing at a high pace though as they have scored over 100 in 6 straight games. The defense is what has been erratic for them. One game they give up 120 and the next they give up 70 or 80 points. Normally I would think the Warriors are towards the higher end, but the word out of Golden State is that they are going to be resting some guys today, so watch for word on that. It’s a huge total and both teams have played fast this season, so you have to at least take a look here.

Line: Warriors -7, O/U 216

Players to Watch

  • David Lee, PF, Warriors ($3900)
  • Andre Iguodala, SF, Warriors ($4100)
  • Kenneth Faried, PF, Nuggets ($6700)
  • Will Barton, SG, Nuggets ($4300)

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Hawks @ Suns

Game Analysis

The Hawks have won seven of the last nine games. Six of the last nine have been played to the under. They score between 95-105 almost every game and when they do have an under hit, it is usually due to their opponents low offensive output. The Suns have had some of those lower outputs lately with five unders in seven games. They have alternated some scores in the 110s with some clunkers in the low 80s. I’m not sure which Suns team shows up today. What I do know is there are a couple of injuries to monitor. Dennis Schroder is likely out for Atlanta. That means a few extra minutes for Teague and probably some Shelvin Mack off the bench. On the other side if Brandon Knight sits, then Bledsoe will have the ball in his hands for almost the entire game. It should also click up a Marcus Morris who has been finding his way into the line up more often lately. This is another high total today and definitely worth having some exposure to.

Line: Hawks -5, O/U 205

Players to Watch

  • Jeff Teague, PG, Hawks ($6700)
  • Al Horford, C, Hawks ($7100)
  • Marcus Morris, PF, Suns ($4600)
  • Eric Bledsoe, PG, Suns ($8100)

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Pistons @ Trailblazers

Game Analysis

Detroit is in a nose dive through the standings at the moment. They have lost eight games in a row. They have only cracked the 100 point mark twice during that stretch. and have only played to the over twice in their last ten games. Portland has won six of their last seven and have shown the ability to play fast or slow, depending on their opponents. The only injury news of note in this one is Wes Matthews who is out for an extended period of time. There is no direct beneficiary of his injury as it seems the usage and shots are being distributed out amongst the other starters. This game does not have a huge total and the spread says it may turn into a big lead at some point for the Blazers. Detroit usually struggles with big men, so the Blazers should have no trouble putting up some points here. Even though this is the hammer game and everyone loves having PMR, It is not one I would look to target heavy tonight. There’s much better spots to look towards for solid fantasy production today.

Line: Blazers -8.5, O/U 197

Players to Watch

  • Damian Lilliard, PG, Blazers ($8100)
  • Robin Lopez, C, Blazers ($5000)
  • Andre Drummond, C, Pistons ($8000)
  • Reggie Jackson, PG, Thunder ($6700)