We have a seven game slate for NBA on Saturday with two of those games starting at 3:30. The early slate is only for two games with the bulk of the money and tournaments being at 7pm eastern time. Therefore we will be concentrating on the late slate of five games which is the big one for NBA DFS action today. We have three games with total right around 200. The Orlando/Washington matchup is the only one with a spread under 9.5 of that trio. We have a low scoring game expected between Miami and Utah and a high scoring game with a 223 total between Sacramento and Golden State where most of the fantasy action should be concentrated. It is not a slate with a lot of options, so game selection is going to be very important here. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of the top options to consider.

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic

Over/Under: 197.5
Line: Magic -2.5

This is an interesting clash of styles. Washington plays at one of the faster paces in the entire league and Orlando plays at one of the slowest. That would seem to benefit the Magic more in this matchup. Orlando has played a lot of games lately where the total has been below 180, so this total is well above what we have seen out of them lately. Elfrid Payton may or may not play here. Even if he does though, the Magic have looked better lately with Oladipo serving as their point guard. That has allowed them to run a lineup with Harris at the 3 and Fournier at the SG spot, which gives them a more offensive mind team. The problem is they have not been better on offense. They have lost four of the last five and are only averaging 86 points during this stretch. Washington is also struggling as they have lost 5 of their last 6 games. With Beal out, they have been unable to get enough scoring punch to really keep themselves in the games. Their defense is horrendous as they have allowed a ton of points as well and have some of the worst DvP going, especially against the wing players of opposing teams. We could see some nice stat lines in this game, but most of them will probably come from the Orlando side.

Targets

  • Victor Oladipo ($6800)
  • Tobias Harris ($5700)
  • John Wall ($9400)
  • Marcin Gortat ($6700)


Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons

Over/Under: 195
Line: Pistons -11

A low total and a high spread is the exact opposite of what we look for in fantasy sports. The Pistons should have their way with the NEts here and it makes it tough to figure out the fantasy lines many of these players could have. Brooklyn is without Jarret Jack, which makes them a weaker team. The guys they are giving extra minutes too are very erratic (Larkin, Bogdanovich) and that makes them a total mystery. Either could explode for 30+ fantasy points or do nothing and end up with under 20 minutes played and 15 or less fantasy points. Guys like Brook Lopez and Thad young have seen upside, but even they are not good targets in this matchup given the low expected total and bump up in prices. Guys like Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond are in good spots here, but if the game gets out of hand, both could see less minutes. Caldwell-Pope has been a monster, but his production is usually directly related to a huge number of minutes he plays. Again here the blowout factor could be a problem. It’s easy to pick out the best targets for this game based on price and usage, but there is very little certainty that the game will unfold in such a way that makes any of them safe plays for cash.

Targets

  • Shane Larkin ($4700)
  • Brook Lopez ($7900)
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5400)
  • Reggie Jackson ($7100)


Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers

Over/Under: 201.5
Line: Raptors -9.5

This is an uneven matchup here. The Sixers are one of the worst teams in the league. They give up a lot of points and struggle to score many themselves. Toronto is not a high scoring team either, but they win because they do play excellent defense. When you take a team that plays great defense and match them up with a team that struggles offensively, it’s a recipe for disaster. Philly has bad DvP against almost every position, so all the Raptors could be in play. Toronto has good DvP overall, so it makes it tough to pick out any Sixers in good spots. Ish Smith has been the lone bright spot recently, but it’s tough to pay for him n a matchup with Kyle Lowry. I think the smart thing is to shade more towards the Raptors players here. The key to it working is whether or not Philly can keep this game close. I’m really not sure that is a viable option to be honest.

Targets

  • Ish Smith ($6900)
  • Jahlil Okafor ($6000)
  • Kyle Lowry ($8600)
  • Demar DeRozan ($8000)


Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz

Over/Under: 186
Line: Heat -1.5

This is the lowest total game on an ugly slate by a very wide margin. Utah is welcoming back Rudy Gobert here, so that should improve the defense. Miami plays at a slow pace as well and is also a very solid defensive squad, so you have two teams with the same profile clashing in this one. Miami is pretty healthy, so we have no concerns there except for them being on the road and on the tail end of a back-to-back. Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors are both still questionable for Utah and both guys will be missed if they can no go. With Burks already on the shelf, Utah needs those two to help with the scoring. Guys like Hayward and even Trey Burke have picked it up in their absence, so that is where I would look if I was bold enoug to play anyone here. For the Heat, Whiteside is boom or bust, Wade and Bosh have been decent, and Dragic has been all over the place with his production. In a low total game like this, ‘m not sure if I want exposure to much if any of these guys either. It’s so tough to pay for the guys in this game when you can have guys at equal prices from the next game we discuss which has 40 more points expected and should be at a break neck speed.

Targets

  • Trey Burke ($5200)
  • Gordon Hayward ($7200)
  • Dwyane Wade ($6800)
  • Goran Dragic ($5700)


Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Over/Under: 223
Line: Warriors -9

It’s so hard not to just run to this game to get your lineups built tonight on this small slate. The total is 20 points higher than any other game on the docket here. Both teams play fast and we have seen a ton of fantasy points come from it. They hooked up last week and Sacramento was actually winning until Cousins got tossed. After that point, it turned into a big Golden State blowout. Injury news is a big factor here. Cousins rolled an ankle at the end of last game and is questionable. Omri Casspi has been out for over a week, but might be back in action tonight. Steph Curry was out for a week or two, but has been slowly climbing back into it over the last week as well. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been the two guys going off in his absence, so that is where I would look here. 8 points in a 220 total game is not ridiculous, so this one may see full run for the starters.

Targets

  • Draymond Green ($10000)
  • Klay Thompson ($8000)
  • Rudy Gay ($6900)
  • Rajon Rondo ($8400)