Kick back and enjoy what Tuesday is bringing to us today, a gentle four-game slate, starting at 8pm ET. Short slates mean more overlap and less value, typically, so let’s dig into the games and see what we have to choose from today!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Line: Hawks -8.5
Pace: New York (23rd), Atlanta (13th)
Offensive Rating: New York (22nd), Atlanta (7th)
Defensive Rating: New York (18th), Atlanta (10th)
Net Rating Differential (the higher the NRD, the more likely for a blowout): 4.8 in favor of the Hawks
Attack the Knicks at the point guard and the front court, so the Hawks have all-Stars (at one time) manning those positions. But Jeff Teague has been maddeningly inconsistent at his position and Dennis Schröder is in the doghouse right now, yielding to Shelvin Mack as the backup. So the targets are squarely on Paul Millsap and Al Horford to produce here and take advantage of their matchups at home.
The Knicks took care of the Hawks two days ago in NYC because they shot out of their minds, which isn’t aberrant for Carmelo Anthony, especially against the Hawks, but it was for Arron Afflalo, who did everything but shrug after making 100 three-point shots. That’s not repeatable, even with the Hawks giving up value to opposing wings. What can be repeatable is Robin Lopez’s play inside as the Hawks are notorious for giving up the offensive glass (28th in OREB%).
– Paul Millsap ($8,100)
– Al Horford ($6,600)
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,200)
– Robin Lopez ($4,600)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Line: Bulls -8
Pace: Milwaukee (24th), Chicago (11th)
Offensive Rating: Milwaukee (20th), Chicago (26th)
Defensive Rating: Milwaukee (28th), Chicago (6th)
Net Rating Differential: 7.3 in favor of the Bulls
Derrick Rose is questionable for the Bulls and Jerryd Bayless is questionable for the Bucks.
If Rose misses, as he did on the 3rd, then it’s all the Jimmy Butler you can handle. Butler has scored 56.3, 44.5, 41.0 and 58 the last four games that Rose has missed. The Bucks are also a positive matchup for Butler as well, adding to the reasons why Jimmy should be on your radar today. The other play is Pau Gasol, who continues to ball in Joakim Noah’s absence, given the additional time of the floor.
You attack the Bulls in the middle, so Greg Monroe is a solid play at a reasonable 6.5K. Jason Kidd has decreed that he only play 28-30 minutes for some reason, but he has delivered 30.25, 41.5 and 33 DK points in his last three games despite such nonsense. With Bayless potentially out, Michael Carter-Williams continues to be in play. Carter-Williams’ usage has settled in solidly in the mid 20s and the Bulls are weak at defending the point.
– Jimmy Butler ($8,000)
– Pau Gasol ($7,800)
– Greg Monroe ($6,500)
– Michael Carter-Williams ($6,700)
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks
Line: Mavs -5
Pace: Sacramento (1st), Dallas (16th)
Offensive Rating: Sacramento (13th), Dallas (8th)
Defensive Rating: Sacramento (25th), Dallas (16th)
Net Rating Differential: 4.3 in favor if the Mavericks
Omri Casspi missed Monday’s game with a sore back and is questionable for tonight and Ben McLemore is questionable after leaving Monday’s game with back spasms. Deron Williams of the Mavs has a sore hamstring and is also questionable. Devin Harris is probable for Dallas.
This is the kind of game you get healthy for but that’s a lot of owies above there and could create some interesting values tonight. For Dallas, Wesley Matthews has to be in play be virtue of his minutes (~32 right now) and his matchup (Sacramento is horrible at defending opposing twos). J.J. Barea is someone that was in play when Deron missed time recently, but his extended time and production is already cooked into his 5.7K salary. I love Chandler Parsons’ versatile game but the Mavs too often stand him in a corner on the offensive end and ask him to guard opposing guards on the other, limiting his exposure to fantasy point creating activities. Ray Felton, however, somehow continues to be a thing and if Williams misses, his usage and DK point per minute production is locked in very well in this matchup. Lastly, Zaza Pachulia, if he can stay away from fouling DeMarcus Cousins, is in a great spot at 5.9K after averaging nearly 36 DK PPG in his last four games.
UPDATE: Rajon Rondo is OUT tonight. Darren Collison should see more minutes in his place
Monday night we saw good Boogie as DeMarcus Cousins withstood a road game against a pesky defender (Steven Adams) and rode it to over a 60 DK point night (64.3). Zaza Pachulia is another pesky defender and can cause near riots among opponents. Take a shot again? You may have to on such a short slate. Rajon Rondo returns to Dallas running a fairly strong offensive unit and coming off a 63.3 effort himself against OKC and might get Barea/Felton defending him, which would be a positive development for Rondo.
– Wesley Matthews ($5,000)
– Zaza Pachulia ($5,900)
– DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000)
– Rajon Rondo ($8,400) – RONDO IS OUT TONIGHT
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pace: Golden State (2nd), Los Angeles (12th)
Offensive Rating: Golden State (1st), Los Angeles (29th)
Defensive Rating: Golden State (3rd), Los Angeles (29th)
Net Rating Differential: 23.6 in favor of the Warriors
The big questions in his game are going to be who is going to play in this game and for how long? Stephen Curry braved his shin injury last night, but that was against his hometown Charlotte Hornets at Oracle. Will he go again on the road against a sorry Lakers team? It’s questionable at this point. Does Harrison Barnes play on a back to back after going 20 minutes last night? Can Draymond Green pop another triple-double after doing three in a row? If he plays, can he do his damage in three quarters and still hit value? If Curry sits, then Shaun Livingston who played only eight minutes against Charlotte, which might be a telling clue about tonight. Livingston is only a 0.75 DK/minute player, so don’t get visions of 50 running through your head, but he would be able to provide solid value here if he’s able to play 32-34 minutes.
On the other side the question is does Kobe Bryant suit up? He’s currently questionable and his absence puts Lou Williams on the board as a top play for the Lakers. Lou’s usage is 27% when Kobe is off the floor and the same when D’Angelo Russell (questionable with a sore throat) joins Kobe on the bench. Jordan Clarkson would also be a fine target in that scenario as well. I’d love to include Julius Randle here, but someone is going to have to send me the super secret use case pamphlet on the very specific scenario that allows Randle to play, because he doesn’t start and he didn’t play in a blowout over the Suns.
– Shaun Livingston ($4,500)
– Draymond Green ($10,100)
– Lou Williams ($5,700)
– Jordan Clarkson ($5,400)