It’s Hangover Thursday, and if you didn’t include Klay Thompson in your Warriors stack last night, look in the mirror, take a deep breath, tell yourself that it’s okay and you’re okay and people really like you and then let’s get into the healthy six-game Thursday slate. Enough therapy – let’s get right to them!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Line: Pacers -3
The Hawks have been giving up tons of points to opposing bigs, evidenced against last night as DeAndre Jordan corralled 19 rebounds against the Hawks, who are dead last in the league at the rebounding. The Pacers, though, have many mediocre big men eating up minutes. Between Lavoy Allen, Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi, they’ve held down the position while being neither good offensive nor effective defensively. Enter Myles Turner, who is a versatile plus performer at both ends of the court. His salary has dropped to 4.6K and even if he gets 20-22 minutes against the Hawks, between his production and the Hawks ineffectiveness, I believe Turner could hit 25-30 DK points. Tourney-only, but the Hawks are the type of team, especially on the rear end of a back to back, to take that shot against. They also struggle against wings, putting Paul George firmly in play as well.
For the Hawks, Jeff Teague is from Indianapolis, so if you are a Narrative Street resident, then you’d want to know that. His salary has also sunk to 5.5K, remarkable for last year’s All-Star. He’s been playing through and limited by a sore ankle, but he’s averaged over 40 DK points when playing in Indy the last three seasons, so there’s a little more than narrative in play here. As long as Budenholzer doesn’t “Pop” him, I love his chances at significant value at that lowered salary. Elsewhere, you have to love Paul Millsap getting his usual 40 DK points for cash games. He missed a couple of shots that would’ve tied the game against the Clippers, so he’ll be eager to get back on the horse and ride against the Pacers.
– Paul George ($8,900)
– Myles Turner ($4,600)
– Jeff Teague ($5,500)
– Paul Millsap ($8,300)
Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards
Line: Wizards -7.5
Bradley Beal is expected to play, so that limits the fun and games with the Wizards wings as none of them will receive significant enough volume to warrant playing, including Beal. This also somewhat mutes John Wall, who is priced at a non-Beal usage rate right now at 9.1K, but against Emmanuel Mudiay and the Nuggets leaky defense, he’s still in play here and a decent tourney target since he’s been down the last couple of games and he’s playing at home. The Nuggets have been giving up a lot of points in the frontcourt, so Marcin Gortat is in play at 7.1K. The Wizards have had two games where Randy Wittman has used his typical sub pattern late in the third while trailing, played the whole rotation as the game got away, and then never brought his starters back in, basically allowing the bench to lose the game and any chance of winning for no apparent reason other than just dumb habit. That’s why Gortat’s stats have been down the last couple of games, he hasn’t received a full fourth shift. With a spread of 7.5 in the Wizards favor, that shouldn’t be the case tonight.
The Nuggets can attack the Wizards wings, so Will Barton, Gary Harris and Danilo Gallinari should receive your consideration tonight. Barton is always susceptible to Michael Malone forgetting who his most dynamic player is from night to night, and thus his minutes are suppressed unnecessarily, but if Malone is wise, Barton will see 30 minutes or more and make value on his 5.7K salary.
– Marcin Gortat ($7,100)
– John Wall ($9,100)
– Will Barton ($5,700)
– Danilo Gallinari ($7,000)
h2. New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
Line: Raptors -10
Carmelo is out tonight for the Knicks, so the Lance Thomas/Derrick Williams Machine kicks in again tonight in Toronto. Williams is a terrific play but his salary has risen to 5.5K, making him less lock and load, especially since he’ll still be coming off the bench. Lance Thomas is 4K and produced well in his 31 minutes the last time out. He’s not a high-ceiling play though like Williams so while he is in solid position to get to 24-25 DK points, that might be the top of his range tonight against a tougher Raptors team.
Kyle Lowry is questionable for Toronto tonight and if he misses, this greatly impacts both Cory Joseph and DeMar DeRozan. Joseph would see a major bump in minutes, perhaps to around 36 minutes while DeRozan’s usage, dating back to last year, with Lowry off the court and Joseph on the court, is 36%, according to nbawowy. That would be significant. Even against Arron Afflalo, DeRozan would be a great play in this scenario at 8K.
– Lance Thomas ($4,000)
– Derrick Williams ($5,500)
– DeMar DeRozan ($8,000)
– Cory Joseph ($3,600)
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Line: Kings -3.5
This is not a game to overthink, but, rather, to stack and enjoy. Whether or not Anthony Davis is cleared to play tonight (doubtful, concussion), Ryan Anderson is a great play against a Kings team that gives up many, many three-point shots. With Anderson stretching the floor and Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole (Tyreke Evans is questionable) driving to the hoop, the Pelicans should be able to score at the rate that Vegas implies in the above line. The Kings will be without Rudy Gay, who has a scratched eyeball, so there will be Omri Casspi and Willie Cauley-Stein secured minutes tonight. Boogie Cousins is always a thought, but at 11.2K (!) he’s not at an all-in price against even one of the weakest frontline defenses in the league….or is he?
– Ryan Anderson ($6,300)
– Alonzo Gee ($4,100)
– Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,100)
– DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Line: Grizzlies -5.5
The game nobody wanted to roster from. With John Henson out, that helps Jabari Parker maintain his mid-30s minutes at PF even with Jason Kidd back on the bench. Jerryd Bayless is a Jason Kidd favorite and listed at only 4.2K – he doesn’t have high tourney upside, but he could make 6x value there with his usual Kidd minutes. For the Grizzlies, the wing carousel spins round and round and it looks as if when Tony Allen plays, Matt Barnes doesn’t as much, and Jeff Green has regular bench minutes either way. So with Allen available, he and Green are your wing targets at 5K and 4.9K, respectively.
– Jerryd Bayless ($4,200)
– Jabari Parker ($5,300)
– Tony Allen ($5,000)
– Jeff Green ($4,900)
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Bulls -8.5
This game, however, will be highly looked at as the Lakers are everyone’s offensive HGH. Nikola Mirotic has undergone an appendectomy and will be out for a few weeks, so that impacts all the Bulls frontcourt players in a fantasy-positive manner. Taj Gibson’s minutes are solid and Bobby Portis should be a regular in the rotation for now, albeit in a limited minutes capacity. Pau Gasol is in the best spot here against one of the weakest frontcourts in the league right now. As long as this game stays close Gasol, who is back where he won a title, will dine well against the likes of Roy Hibbert and company. Also, Jimmy butler running ragged over the alleged defense of the Lakers should be fun, too.
The Lakers may be without Kobe Bryant and Louis Williams, so if they are out, the Jordan Clarkson, D’Angelo Russell duo gets a boost, though who knows with Byron Scott, since he didn’t want his rookie point guard “taking over too much”, but if Kobe/Lou are out, mid 30s minutes for the pair should lock in some value for whoever Butler doesn’t cover (Russell, probably). The Bulls are weaker in the frontcourt, defensively, so Julius Randle, the double-double machina, is a good play as long as Scott continues to play him 30 minutes or more.
– Pau Gasol ($8,700)
– Jimmy Butler ($8,800)
– D’Angelo Russell ($5,100)
– Julius Randle ($5,900)