Tuesday is here and if you didn’t have any Boogie Cousins last night, maybe you’d better take a shower, have a hot meal and refocus on tonight’s surprisingly big eight-game slate. Let’s get right to them!

As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers

Over/Under: 208.5
Line: Clippers -1

Ian Mahinmi is questionable for this game but even if he were healthy, Myles Turner has proven to be a valuable play off the bench. His salary has risen to 4.8K but his 23 percent usage and Frank Vogel’s approval of his role coming off the bench leads me to believe, like Jrue Holiday in New Orleans, that’s Turner’s new role, primary scorer on the second unit. Since he should continue to get 25-29 minutes, sub 5K is still good value for him and still a solid target for us. For the Clippers, it’s still Chris Paul. With 30% usage, Paul has dominated the ball and the 50.4 DKPPG in January shows that.

Targets

– Myles Turner ($4,800)
– Lavoy Allen ($3,800)
– Chris Paul ($9,700)
– Wesley Johnson ($3,900)


Phoenix Suns @ Philadelphia 76ers

Over/Under: 204.5
Line: Sixers -3

Two teams in opposite directions, with the Suns being, generally, a hot mess right now and the Sixers trending better. Brandon Knight is out again for the Suns, meaning a lot of people will be on Archie Goodwin tonight. Goodwin scored 38.25 in 41 minutes against the Hawks and will likely see the same workload against Ish Smith and the Sixers. His cost has risen to 4.5K, but that kind of volume of minutes plus the 25-26% usage he showed against the Hawks puts him in value country again tonight. Markieff Morris is probable tonight which means that it’s likely that Tyson Chandler, who crushed it against the Hawks, won’t be needed to play as many minutes tonight. So while the matchup against Jahlil Okafor is good, he’s more likely to fall into the 24-25 minutes range tonight which, at his elevated cost of 4.8K is good, it’s not a must play. For the Sixers, Ish Smith has had a couple of rough games and his salary is 7.4K, but his usage is still over 30% in January and his role isn’t changing, so he can be fired up against the leaky backcourt of the Suns.

Targets

– Archie Goodwin ($4,500)
– Tyson Chandler ($4,800)
– Ish Smith ($7,400)
– Jerami Grant ($4,400)


Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets

Over/Under: 189
Line: Heat -4

There are only two starters for the Nets with over 25 minutes per game and 18.5% usage since January 1st. That’s Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. If Hassan Whiteside is out, it makes targeting those two easier, but even if he’s not, these are your two safest plays with Donald Sloan an alright third option at 5K. The Heat played last night, so we’ll be watching the news to see not only if Whiteside plays, but if Dwyane Wade will be limited or miss entirely. If Wade and Whiteside are out, then Chris Bosh is a 30% usage player and a top target. I would watch to see if Amare Stoudemire is starting against Lopez, but it’s highly questionable how the Heat will use Amare in back to back games. If they limit Stoudemire, then they might go small and then Justise Winslow is an alright option at 4.4K.

Targets

– Brook Lopez ($7,200)
– Thaddeus Young ($6,400)
– Chris Bosh ($7,700)
– Justise Winslow ($4,400)


Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

Over/Under: 209.5
Line: Thunder -6.5

Obviously Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are in play in this high total game, more cash game than tourney due to both guys limiting the extreme high side. 5.7K may seem like a great number to roster Serge Ibaka, but consider this: He has 14 DK Net Points (filters out scoring) for the month of January, so he’s not getting the peripherals he has the reputation for getting. Looking back to last season, his DK Net Points was closer to 18, which is better, but hardly elite. During his biggest season, he had 24 Net Points per game, which is definitely top end, but since then it’s gone steadily down, from 20 three seasons ago to the 16 this season. All that said, since he scores 13 ppg, his projection puts him at 25-26 DK points, which is too low for 5.7K. I’ve gone with Enes Kanter a lot, but Robin Lopez is not an easy play and with Durant on the floor with him, his usage drops 5% and DKPPM down 0.20. With his cost nearly 5K, it’s not auto-value like he’s been. Carmelo Anthony is supposed to play so he’s always a tourney play at 8.2K since he’s going to be the center of scoring and, if the line and number from Vegas are going to be close to the reality then Carmelo is going to be the reason why from the Knicks side. For fun, Carmelo’s DK Net Points for January is nearly 19, just to put that Ibaka stat into more perspective. Without Steven Adams, the middle of the Thunder defense is soft and scoring friendly. Robin Lopez isn’t a scoring freak, but he can take advantage here. Since Fisher usually matches him up with scoring centers, which means he’s more inclined to go 30 minutes tonight with Kanter likely seeing the same.

Targets

– Russell Westbrook ($10,600)
– Kevin Durant ($9,800)
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,200)
– Robin Lopez ($5,100)


Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Over/Under: 205
Line: Raptors -8

It’s a copout to simply list Lowry and DeRozan as the targets for the Raptors, but the last time these two teams got together, both went for over 50 DK points and Bradley Beal is expected to miss the game with a broken nose/concussion, meaning DeRo will be facing the likes of Garrett Temple and Gary Neal. Terrence Ross is sub 3K and getting solid minutes and even (GASP!) played down the stretch his last game, putting him over 30 minutes. Ross will get the same easy wing defense the Wizards have been providing all season long. The Wizards are also well rested after Randy Wittman pulled the plug early in the fourth quarter Monday against the Celtics. Because of this, John Wall is rested and will be amped up to not repeat last night’s 27 DK point dud against a foe he struggled with the last time (33 DK points). Wall makes for a great tourney play after burning people last night and that previous performance, not to mention his 9.2K salary. However, consider his 30% usage rate and that great players can spike in any matchup and he’s going to be a low-owned, high upside play.

Targets

– John Wall ($9,200)
– Ramon Sessions ($4,000)
– DeMar DeRozan ($8,300)
– Terrence Ross ($3,800)


Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 195.5
Line: Bucks -5.5

One of the two games under 200 point total tonight, so it’s going to be hard to get real excited about this matchup. Plus, almost everybody is healthy on both sides, meaning too much production spread out and hard to pinpoint a breakout here. Aaron Gordon has moved into the starting rotation and his DK Net Points per 36 has risen to 19 and his usage has increased as well. His 4.8K salary still puts him in value range, especially in this matchup against the Bucks soft frontline. Elf Payton has a tough matchup, but he’s a decent call at 6.3K, considering his 40 DK point upside. On the other side, Jabari Parker has started to emerge and the minutes have been there recently for the young forward. He’s posted 30DK point games in four of his last seven and at 5.1K, that’s good value. Michael Carter-Williams has put up 24.2 DK Net Points per 36 this month and has a size advantage over Payton tonight. And lastly, Greg Monroe is an even 7K but has as much upside as Vucevic in this one, only scoring below 38 DK points once in his last eight games.

Targets

– Aaron Gordon ($4,800)
– Elfrid Payton ($6,300)
– Jabari Parker ($5,100)
– Greg Monroe ($7,000)


Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers

Over/Under: 214
Line: Blazers -4

Double OT last night for the Kings and Boogie Cousins was, once again, unstoppable. He has scored over 100 basketball points in his last two games. Fatigue? Who knows. They have a short trip up to Portland and have a friendly matchup against Mason Plumlee (who fouls 4.2 times per 36 minutes) and the Blazers tonight. Boogie was 11K last night, just like tonight, and nobody that owned him felt cheated. Of course, of course, he could be tired from hauling the Kings into both overtimes and there is huge letdown potential here, so buyer beware. Oh, and Rudy Gay is out tonight, too. Just saying. For Portland, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are near 30% usage for their last 10 games and the Kings are near the bottom in guard defense, so no need to look past these two unless you want to shoot for value and go with Allen Crabbe at 4.1K to take advantage of the same matchup.

Targets

– DeMarcus Cousins ($11,000)
– Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,800)
– Damian Lillard ($9,300)
C.J. McCollum ($7,300)


Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

Over/Under: 201.5
Line: Mavs -7.5

Ah, the Lakers, the NBA’s natural offensive sweetener. Zaza Pachulia is doubtful and Rick Carlisle has enjoyed deploying the 29 year old rookie, Salah Mejri. Mejri gives you what you want in a value center: He moves without the ball with purpose, shows shot blocking tendencies and finishes strong at the rim. At 3.5K, he’s going to be a core value for many if Zaza misses. Toss in the fact that the Lakers the worst at defending the center position and it’s a near lock and load. Deron Williams and Dirk Nowitzki are in solid matchups, too, and as long as they get the minutes, they’ll produce at a value pace as well. D’Angelo Russell has been the guy in the Lakers backcourt that’s been producing value and still can in this matchup at 5K.

Targets

– Salah Mejri ($3,500)
– Dirk Nowitzki ($6,300)
D’Angelo Russell ($5,000)
– Lou Williams ($5,900)