Tuesday is here and if you didn’t have any of the overtime games yesterday or neglected to roster Dwight Howard, then you’ll want to have a good meal, wash it down with a tasty beverage and have some fun with the four-game slate tonight. Let’s get right to them!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
Line: Heat -5.5
With Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih likely to miss tonight, you are going to be tempted to have all the Tyler Johnson for your team. Johnson played 38 minutes his last time out, including making a couple of late game, everybody else of consequence was off the floor, buckets for the folks that included him in their fun and games. However, his salary has shot up to 5.1K, meaning he’ll have to score 26-30 DK points which has been top end for him in extended action. He’s in play because of the minutes/opportunity, but against Michael Carter-Williams and a better than average PG defense, be warned. Someone who still a slight value on the Heat is Dwyane Wade, who still rocks a high usage rate and is below 7K. Wade is still the Alpha Dog in Miami and will be the focal point again tonight.
For the Bucks, shoot lower as most of their starters have been cost inflated due to their good production over the last couple of weeks. Their big four players are all right around 7K, with three of them at 6.9K. John Henson has been solid off the bench, with four of his last six games over 24 DK points for his 4K salary.
– Dwyane Wade ($6,700)
– Tyler Johnson ($5,100)
– Khris Middleton ($6,900)
– John Henson ($4,000)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
Line: Pelicans -5
I have an unholy affection for Jrue Holiday. The problem is that Alvin Gentry continues to play woefully inefficient and non-PG Norris Cole over him even with Tyreke Evans out. Minutes count from the last game, with no Evans? Cole 30, Holiday 28. Holiday still crushed, but this roadblock to playing time in the form of a 20-foot jump shot specialist makes it hard to go all-in like you should if Evans misses again (he’s questionable). Same for Anthony Davis. You’d think he would have more than 12 shot attempts in a game without Tyreke, but 12 it was. He won’t have the 70 point games folks are looking for by rostering him unless he is more aggressive in taking shots.
Minnesota has been difficult to pin down lately, but Andrew Wiggins has emerged with some high usage in January (30.5%) and his salary has started to creep up to 7K. It’s a positive matchup for Wiggins today, so he’s in play. The Pelicans have been bad at defending the frontcourt this season, but Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t seen his salary dip low enough to take advantage here. Instead, the 4.1K salary of Gorgui Dieng makes sense. Dieng has had three games of over 20DK points even with Nikola Pekovic back and has big upside if he climbs over 25 minutes.
– Jrue Holiday ($6,000)
– Norris Cole ($3,800)
– Andrew Wiggins ($6,900)
– Gorgui Dieng ($4,100)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets
Line: Thunder -8.5
The Nuggets are not a good defensive team and will have few answers for Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant tonight. They are the fifth worst defensive team by defensive rating and provide a positive matchup at every position. As with any Thunder game, there is always a threat of blowout, which brings the garbage time stylings of Enes Kanter into play.
Will Barton has maintained a solid mid-20s usage rate since he started getting steady (even if it’s not as much as he should be getting) minutes. He’ll start slow but he’ll be in towards the end of the game, especially if they need offense, which they almost certainly will in this game. He’s a tourney play only, but on a four-game slate, you’re better off rolling tourney plays anyway. Emmanuel Mudiay can’t shoot straight, but he’s active, uses a lot of possessions and will get 30+ minutes tonight if Jameer Nelson misses another game with a sore wrist.
– Kevin Durant ($9,900)
– Enes Kanter ($4,500)
– Will Barton ($6,100)
– Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,400)
Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns
Line: Pacers -7
High paced game between the fourth and seventh fastest paced teams in the league. The Suns are a well-known mess and are now the third worst defensive team in the league. The Pacers have plenty of guys who can take advantage. With George Hill questionable, Joseph Young came in and balled as the backup PG to Monta Ellis, even playing alongside Ellis as he scored 26.25 DK points on his minimum salary. There’s no guarantee that Frank Vogel will go back to Young but he’s an excellent tourney option at 3.1K if Hill misses another game. Likewise, Myles Turner balled with Ian Mahinmi out, hitting a nice selection of outside shots to go with some strong finishes around the basket. The same caveats apply in terms of watching the injury report, but at 3.5K, he’s a good play with Mahinmi out.
For Phoenix, Devin Booker is a good player who has a bit of Rodney Hood Syndrome, meaning he can’t keep his hands to himself and draws some unnecessary fouls, limiting his minutes. Against any of the Pacers two-guards, Booker will be fine, but at 4.8K, I’d like a little bit of a no-touch guarantee from him before I went all-in with him. Other than Brandon Knight, who has been lost without Eric Bledsoe next to him, the rest of the Suns are a pick-em when everyone is healthy, which is how they are right now.
– Joe Young ($3,100)
– Myles Turner ($3,500)
– Devin Booker ($4,800)
– Brandon Knight ($7,200)