Tuesday is here and instead of the usual break-in-the-action small slate tonight, we get a sweet-spot eight-gamer with plenty of intrigue and high totals. Plenty of high priced options will have us digging through the seat cushions for value tonight, so let’s go through the games and find what we need tonight!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers
Line: Pacers -10
Pace: Phoenix (4th), Indiana (9th)
Offensive Rating: Phoenix (22nd), Indiana (16th)
Defensive Rating: Phoenix (23rd), Indiana (3rd)
Net Rating Differential (the higher the NRD, the more likely for a blowout): 7.7 in favor of the Pacers
Alex Len is out for the Suns. Ronnie Price is questionable.
Jeff Hornacek says he wants to tighten his rotations and give guys solid roles to know, night in-night out. What a concept! Nothing like having your job threatened to stop the tinkering. Now, who is going to emerge from the swamp and play the minutes for the Suns? We can count on Brandon Knight for sure and Devin Booker next to him. PJ Tucker is likely to grab the SF minutes and then who knows what happens up front. With Alex Len out tonight, we know that Tyson Chandler will start, but little else. Against the Pacers, Knight has a tough matchup and Booker is probably top-end priced at 4.9K, but those are the targets in this one. They will get long minutes no matter the deficit as well.
For the Pacers going against these messed up Suns and their bottom ten defense, the blowout watch is on, but Paul George is definitely in play as is George Hill, since the Suns have struggled against opposing point guards and Hill is fairly priced at 5.2K with 30 DK point upside in this matchup that adds about 12% to opposing PG (per DFSGold).
– Brandon Knight ($7,300) – Brandon Knight has been moved to DOUBTFUL tonight with an illness. Archie Goodwin would be a solid value play assuming Knight cannot play.
– Devin Booker ($4,900)
– Paul George ($9,100)
– George Hill ($5,200)
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Line: Spurs -7
Pace: San Antonio (27th), Detroit (16th)
Offensive Rating: San Antonio (3rd), Detroit (21st)
Defensive Rating: San Antonio (1st), Detroit (8th)
Net Rating Differential: 13.7 in favor of the Spurs
Marcus Morris is questionable for the Pistons.
The Spurs crush fantasy souls and that usually wouldn’t stop in a surprisingly looking one-sided affair in Detroit, with a top efficiency defense (the top, in fact) against an inefficient offense. But Vegas knows something here, as even though the game is in Detroit, the spread is far from what the Net Differential says these teams are, leading me to believe that they are expecting the Spurs to rest players tonight. They did play a regular game last night at home, so there is some history behind that, so watch the game to see if and who the Spurs rest tonight before proceeding. LaMarcus Aldridge is balling lately and would be in play here, but tourney only as the rest/blowout potential is real. The fun play, and one I’ve used lately, is playing Boban Marjanovic, who is 3.3K and can score 21-25 DK points in 13-15 minutes of action, as he did last night. Extended rest and blowout games are dog whistles for Boban players, and this is one of those games.
For Detroit, it’s hard to get excited about anyone because you are paying regular price for players who are going to experience about a 10% deflation in production, so it would have to be a great value play. If Marcus Morris misses, you would normally look at Stanley Johnson at 4.2K as one of those values, but he’ll get at least a bit of Kawhi Leonard, so that puts a boot on that idea right there. Reggie Jackson at 7K against Tony Parker would be a good play if you want to play a what if the game stays close and will be very low owned with so many other PG options on the board and considering nobody wants to mess with the Spurs.
– LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,800)
– Boban Marjanovic ($3,300)
– Reggie Jackson ($7,100)
– Brandon Jennings ($4,000)
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Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Line: Knicks -2
Pace: Boston (3rd), New York (24th)
Offensive Rating: Boston (25th), New York (15th)
Defensive Rating: Boston (2nd), New York (18th)
Net Rating Differential: 4.1 in favor of the Celtics
This will be a game of frontcourt, fantasy wise. The Celtics are consistent targets up front and the Knicks have three guys who can take advantage tonight. Carmelo Anthony has been excellent, scoring 53.25, 40.75, 46.0 and 52.0 in his last four games. Kristaps Porzingis has been 35+ in three of his last four games and Robin Lopez has risen to 5K now that he’s averaged 25-26 DK points over his last four. Derek Fisher has used Lopez when there has been a bigger frontcourt, so he could get fewer minutes if the Celtics go smaller, as they can when they play Jared Sullinger up front. Even when Kelly Olynyk is in the game he stays outside, so Lopez may not be the best matchup there, so I’d go Melo and Zingis in this one.
The Knicks have been surprisingly tough against opposing guards, so again we look up front for value. Everyone is healthy for the C’s so the Mad Rotationist, Brad Stevens has all the players at his disposal. There is nothing more unsettling that rostering a Celtics big only to watch Jared Jerebko enter the game randomly in the second half. Still, Amir Johnson has been starting and doing well, likely settled in there, minutes-wise and is still below 5K. Olynyk is the other good play since he’ll be called on to stretch the Knicks defense out more to give Isaiah Thomas some room to do his high-usage thing.
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,500)
– Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900)
– Amir Johnson ($4,700)
– Kelly Olynyk ($5,100)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Line: Thunder -11
Pace: Oklahoma City (10th), Minnesota (19th)
Offensive Rating: Oklahoma City (2nd), Minnesota (26th)
Defensive Rating: Oklahoma City (11th), Minnesota (20th)
Net Rating Differential: 12.4 in favor of the Thunder
It’s a simple as playing Westbrook or Durant. The cost has separated itself somewhat, with Russell going to 10.7K and Durant slipping to under 10K at 9.8K. Either one is a good play because they will deliver at those levels. Left to choose, I’d take Russell based on Billy Donovan loving his point guard to be involved with everything, driving his usage higher. Other than those obvious plays, Steven Adams has developed a thing with Westbrook and is obliterating teams that can’t keep Westy in front of them, which is everyone. Adams is finishing strong around the basket and getting fouled, leading a 26.25 average over his last four and still at a reasonable 4.4K salary.
Sam Mitchell is on my personal No-Trust list with Jeff Hornacek and Michael Malone, so there is little to focus in on in Minnesota tonight. Ricky Rubio is always a possibility to make great value when he dips below 7K, as he is now at 6.9K and against the non-defense of Russell Westbrook, Rubio should be able to create carefree. Only Andrew Wiggins looks safe in this rotation and even his minutes gets played with from time to time. Tourney only, please.
– Russell Westbrook ($10,700)
– Steven Adams ($4,400)
– Ricky Rubio ($6,900)
– Andrew Wiggins ($6,500)
Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Line: Grizzlies -1.5
Pace: Houston (7th), Memphis (25th)
Offensive Rating: Houston (9th), Memphis (27th)
Defensive Rating: Houston (22nd), Memphis (16th)
Net Rating Differential: 0.4 in favor of the Rockets
Mike Conley and Matt Barnes are questionable for Memphis.
Memphis has been neutral towards opposing two guards so bring in James Harden! He’s dropped below 10K (9.9) and has remained a high usage force (38% in January). And consider this: If Mike Conley does miss and Mario Chalmers plays, we could see a considerable bit of Chalmers on Harden, which is even better for Harden. He may be the highest scorer of the night. With Ty Lawson suspended, Patrick Beverley has been scorching value in the 4K ranges, averaging nearly 26 DKPPG and is at 4.5K in this one.
Zach Randolph (6.5K) has been fantastic off the bench lately. scoring 50-burgers in two of his last four games. The reason seems pretty clear: With Marc Gasol on the bench and ZBo in the game, Randolph’s usage is 29.1% (per nbawowy) over 300 minutes. In a favorable matchup as this is, there’s no reason to see that stopping. Hard to ignore Mario Chalmers, even at 5.9K, in this kind of pace game, but if Barnes does miss tonight, Tony Allen and/or Jeff Green maintain their value even with the return of Courtney Lee.
– James Harden ($9,900)
– Patrick Beverley ($4,500)
– Zach Randolph ($6,500)
– Mario Chalmers ($5,900)
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Line: Bulls -3.5
Pace: Chicago (8th), Milwaukee (23rd)
Offensive Rating: Chicago (23rd), Milwaukee (20th)
Defensive Rating: Chicago (7th), Milwaukee (29th)
Net Rating Differential: 7.2 in favor of Chicago
Jerryd Bayless and OJ Mayo are questionable for the Bucks.
PG and C are two places to attack the Bulls and the Bucks are in great position to do that with Greg Monroe, reasonably priced at 6.6K and Michael Carter-Williams at 7.5K. In his last game Carter-Williams was a victim of coaching overreaction to fouls, as Jason Kidd presumed foul trouble with three first half fouls and robotically benched him. He finished with those same three fouls as he played his regular shift in the third quarter and then never got back in the game as the game got away from the Bucks. Take advantage of that box score anomaly here and roster the MCW that averages 3.2 personal fouls per 36 minutes and scored 34.50, 46.75 and 54 DK points the three previous games before. Lastly, Giannis Antetokounmpo is in an excellent spot against a Bulls defense that also yields to the SF position.
With Joakim Noah back, Pau Gasol goes back to the 28-30 minutes per game player he was before, so he’s overpriced at over 8K. In fact, all the Bulls frontcourt guys are priced too high because of that time off for Jo, so beware there. That leaves Jimmy Butler, who is priced high but solid for cash games and Derrick Rose, who is very well priced at 6.1K, especially given this plus matchup.
– Michael Carter-Williams ($7,500)
– Greg Monroe ($6,600)
– Jimmy Butler ($8,500)
– Derrick Rose ($6,100)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks
Line: Cavs -6
Pace: Cleveland (28th), Dallas (17th)
Offensive Rating: Cleveland (4th), Dallas (8th)
Defensive Rating: Cleveland (5th), Dallas (15th)
Net Rating Differential: 4.8 in favor of the Cavs
Deron Williams is probable for the Mavericks.
In his last game, Kyrie Irving was a disappointment, but he was being carpeted by an angry, vindictive Andrew Wiggins. Kyrie will not get such affection this time around and his still low provides a window to value given his upper 40s production. The only caveat is that he’s still recovering from his long term injury, so there could be a fatigue factor, but he’s still a nice value at the PG position tonight. Elsewhere, LeBron is a machine and at 10K is a still solid option at SF if you wanted to pivot from Durant tonight.
Dallas has been solid, but the most consistent players continue to be Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia. The Cavs are oppressive towards opposing centers, but Zaza’s game isn’t the type to be impacted by that and he won’t have to worry about defense with Tristan Thompson logging a ton of minutes at center now for the Cavs. This is the beginning of a back to back for Dallas, so Nowitzki’s minutes could be in question, though they usually lean on him in the home games against tougher teams.
– Kyrie Irving ($7,000)
– LeBron James ($10,000)
– Zaza Pachulia ($6,300)
– Dirk Nowitzki ($6,300)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pace: New Orleans (12th), Los Angeles (13th)
Offensive Rating: New Orleans (19th), Los Angeles (28th)
Defensive Rating: New Orleans (28th), Los Angeles (30th)
Net Rating Differential: 5.1 in favor of the Pelicans
Anthony Davis is questionable for the Pelicans and Kobe Bryant is questionable for the Lakers.
Everyone is going to wait around to hear about Davis’ status, but you don’t have to. Lock in Jrue Holiday at PG against the Lakers and then play either Tyreke Evans or Ryan Anderson and hope that Davis plays so you can have this side of the game all to yourself, relatively. Holiday is finally playing 30+ minutes per game and his 28-29%% usage is translating to massive DK points. 6K is way too low — he’ll be over 7K shortly and in this matchup against the Lakers, who are the worst against PG, Holiday is a great play. Evans is solid as well, but is finally over 8k, putting him at the top end of his scale, especially with Holiday back in major minutes. Anderson is the counter-Davis play and against the Lakers, with a bunch of bigs that hover near the hoop, Anderson will find himself open and since none of those bigs require the services of Omer Asik, Anderson will play even if Davis does, too.
For the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell is probable and a good play at sub 5K prices. The guards are the dominant users for the Lakers, so Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Kobe Bryant are Lou Williams are all good plays and I usually target the least expensive of the four, which is Russell and Clarkson tonight.
– Jrue Holiday ($6,000)
– Ryan Anderson ($6,500)
– D’Angelo Russell ($4,900)
– Jordan Clarkson ($5,900)