It’s Big Wednesday, and if you went in too far on the Knicks last night, then stop what you are doing, call your counselor, tell them all about how the bad man hurt you and then come on back and get fired up for this mega 11-game main slate!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Stats from StatMuse, NBAWowy, and NBA Stats
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets
Line: Cavaliers -9
See Kyrie Irving. Roster against Kyrie Irving. Kemba Walker is good at home. Kemba Walker is at home. Against Kyrie Irving. Enjoy, as long as he plays (questionable). If Kemba can’t go, you’ll have to beat everyone off with a stick that is going to run to Jeremy Lin. As Cody Zeller continues to miss games, Spencer Hawes and Marvin Williams continue to be good plays. And maybe you haven’t seen Michael Kidd-Gilchrist come back, but he is back with two value games in a row to celebrate the occasion.
UPDATE: Kemba Walker is doubtful to play tonight. This should open up a ton of opportunities for the Hornets offense as Kemba has the 7th highest usage rate among qualified players over the last 10 games. This also increases the potential of a blow out but Troy Daniels and Jeremy Lin will likely be the biggest beneficiaries and are strong tournament options tonight with Kemba’s absence.
The Cavs are playing more offensively ambitious basketball under Tyronn Lue and that loops right back around to the aforementioned Irving, who minutes and usage have increased under Lue. The Hornets aren’t the best matchup, but he’s still 30% usage under 7K, so he’s in play for me. Love against Marvin Williams is a fair enough matchup considering he, like Kyrie, is playing longer minutes to aid in the compilation of statistics.
Kemba Walker ($8,500)
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,500)
- Kyrie Irving ($6,800)
- Kevin Love ($7,600)
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Line: Hawks -8
The Hawks don’t seem to blow anyone out, and this game, on the road in Philly, looks like a classic Hawks keep-em-in-the-game game. I love playing bigs against the Hawks because they are so bad in rebounding, so Okafor, who is nearly 6K, registers. Ish Smith is still the usage king of Philadelphia, so at 7.1K, he’s in a good spot against Jeff Teague, who has been limited by ankle issues.
Despite those ankle issues, Teague has exploded recently, coinciding with the Hawks listening to offers for him. Coincidence? Probably, but Teague went for over 50+ DK points his last time out and is still below 6K with a firm hold on the PG minutes for now. Targeting the Sixers with centers nearly brings me as much joy as rostering against the Hawks. Horford is still below 7K and is a double-double waiting to happen tonight.
- Al Horford ($6,600)
- Jeff Teague ($5,900)
- Jahlil Okafor ($6,100)
- Ish Smith ($7,100)
MORE NBA CONTENT FOR A HUGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- Daily Fantasy Basketball Edge Podcast
- NBA Targets
- NBA Top 5’s by Position
- NBA Cheat Sheet
- NBA Game Breakdown
- NBA Sneak Peek Statistics
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
Line: Celtics -4
To believe this line, or not believe this line. If you do believe it, there is plenty of fantasy goodness ahead. Andre Drummond has averaged 40 DK points per game against the Celtics, including one whopper of a 20/20 game against them. He’s going to double-double here but the question is how high will he go. In a game total like this one, Drummond has to be targeted here. Ersan Ilyasova has been playing solid minutes for the Pistons and the matchup against the Celtics frontcourt is a good one. At 5.5K, his 30+ DK point tendencies lately are good value.
Oh boy, the Celtics frontline. We saw Tyler Zeller getting minutes, though this seems to be a new thing on back to backs for Brad Stevens as Zeller hasn’t played much until recently, both in that certain situation. Still, it’s made a hard situation of targeting a particular Celtics big man and even more difficult one. Amir Johnson against his old team or Kelly Olynyk being used to draw out Andre Drummond? Either one is as likely as the other. Olynyk has the higher upside for tournaments, which is all those guys are right now anyway. Is it wrong to target a player named Isaiah Thomas against the Pistons? Thomas has the usage on his side and if the C’s are going to hit that Vegas target, Thomas is going to be a big reason why.
- Andre Drummond ($8,600)
- Ersan Ilyasova ($5,500)
- Isaiah Thomas ($7,500)
- Evan Turner ($4,800)
Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets
Line: Pacers -7
Remember when Myles Turner was under 4K? That was a whopping six games ago. Now, he’s starting, 6.3K and still in play tonight against the Nets and Brook Lopez. Turner has the outside game to be effective against Lopez, but foul trouble is the lone caveat against the post-heavy Lopez. Paul George continues to dominate the ball in Indiana and while that hasn’t translated to big games, he’s the one in the best position to deliver one when it comes.
Lopez and Thaddeus Young that continue to be the horses on the Nets, with Lopez getting 19, 21 and 23 shot attempts his last three games. Young is an up and down player, but has the all-around game to deliver a 6x game in this matchup at his 6.1K salary.
- Myles Turner ($6,300)
- Paul George ($8,500)
- Brook Lopez ($7,500)
- Thaddeus Young ($6,100)
Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards
Line: Warriors -10
Any game that is even remotely supposed to be close has to draw Stephen Curry into the target discussion. Curry is big bucks, but a 225 number, his constant usage and involvement and just the all-out fun factor in watching him puts him on the list tonight. Draymond Green was one of the top passers last month, period, as his 35 Assist Ratio shows how much the offense flows through him. With an indication of a lot of possessions tonight, that’s a great scenario for Dray, who thrives from extra peripherals from those higher possession games.
Garrett Temple continues to play 35-38 minutes a night, as Bradley Beal slowly gets back into a full workload. 37 minutes for 4.7K in this game total and matchup is worth including in a lineup. Meanwhile, John Wall’s usage and role in a 225 game total is a solid target, also.
- Stephen Curry ($10,700)
- Draymond Green ($9,000)
- John Wall ($9,300)
- Garrett Temple ($4,700)
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: Thunder -13
Westbrook and Durant have now elevated to 11K and 10.4K, respectively, now, so if you wanted exposure to the game, but didn’t want to pay those salaries, then you are looking at Serge Ibaka at 5.5K, and his roller coaster of a game log, or Enes Kanter at 5.1K and hope he sees enough garbage time to make the number.
Steven Adams is not an easy matchup for Nikola Vucevic, so I’m targeting Aaron Gordon, whose salary is still very reasonable for his production, which includes a 34.5 and 49.5 performances. Victor Oladipo has been producing well since being back in the starting lineup and will benefit from the faster paced game against OKC.
- Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
- Kevin Durant ($10,400)
- Aaron Gordon ($5,400)
- Victor Oladipo ($6,500)
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks
Line: Mavericks -4
I’m assuming no Hassan Whiteside or Deron Williams tonight, as both are questionable. When Whiteside is out, Chris Bosh’s production jumps. His rebounding % goes up 5 points and his DKPPM goes from 0.90 to 1.17. Significant, especially against a decent matchup for PFs like him. Amar’e Stoudemire still has some skills, but it’s going to be hard to trust his minutes on a back to back, so I like the notion of targeting Goran Dragic against a JJ Barea led backcourt tonight.
I do like Barea on the offensive end for Dallas, should Deron Williams indeed miss. Barea had been producing solidly in a backup role anyway, so starters minutes at sub 5K pricing is a good target, even in a pace-down game against Miami. Figuring Bosh covering Dirk, that leaves Zaza on Amare, so I like Pachulia’s situation here for a double-double.
- Chris Bosh ($7,700)
- Goran Dragic ($5,500)
- J.J. Barea ($4,800)
- Zaza Pachulia ($6,000)
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
Line: Spurs -13
I couldn’t bring myself to target Norris Cole at 5.8K, but I can understand if you do. He’s getting 5-8 more minutes per game than Holiday, because bench power? With Evans and Gordon out, Cole, Holiday and DeJean-Jones have been producing, with the exception of Holiday against the Grizzlies. Ryan Anderson is here to try and stretch the Spurs defense out with no Tim Duncan.
Tony Parker against the Pelicans backcourt is a good target tonight, especially at 5.1K. Parker could take apart the lax Norris Cole defense pretty well and with Duncan out, LaMarcus Aldridge has been stepping forward, including a 42 point DK game against Orlando.
- Jrue Holiday ($7,000)
- Ryan Anderson ($6,400)
- Tony Parker ($5,100))
- LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,000)
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz
Line: Jazz -7
Never a great thing to pick targets against the plodding Jazz, but Gallinari is the best guy to go to because his shot attempts per game/usage is high and his minutes the most solid of any player in Michael Monroe’s rotation. Nikola Jokic is here because his versatile, all-around game has finally gained some traction with Malone, and the results have been more minutes and very high fantasy points. It’s not the best matchup for Jokic, but he offers the best upside.
With that said about Jokic’s offensive game, it’s still been highly productive to target bigs against Denver. So with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert back in full time minutes, it’s a good time to target them in this spot against the Nuggets. Even with Favors back, Gobert has had games of 37 and 40.5 while Favors has been over 30 DK points himself. With the favorable matchup bump against the Nuggets, the value is there for these guys.
- Danilo Gallinari ($6,800)
- Nikola Jokic ($5,700)
- Derrick Favors ($6,900)
- Rudy Gobert ($6,900)
Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings
Line: Kings -2
Against the Kings, you target the frontcourt and especially the shooting guard positions. The Bulls have one of the best in Jimmy Butler and though his price is high, this is the target for this game. Pau Gasol’s price is also high, but he’s coming off being the top center scorer on DK and in a prime matchup in a pace up game against likely Kosta Koufos.
If DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo both miss (both are questionable), then even though I like to target the Bulls bigs, I like the combination of Darren Collison and Rudy Gay the most. Gay’s status goes way up whenever Cousins is out, as he assumes the massive usage vacuum left behind when Boogie doesn’t play. Gay had a 50-burger his last time out to accentuate that fact. Collison would be a sub 5K point guard triggering a highly effective offense in a high pace game, which is why he gets the nod as the second target over Willie Cauley-Stein or Koufos.
- Pau Gasol ($8,700)
- Jimmy Butler ($8,800)
- Darren Collison ($4,600)
- Rudy Gay ($7,200)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers
Targeting DeAndre Jordan seems counter-intuitive but while he’s a tremendous rebounder and will block shots, he has offered a productive target to opposing centers the last two seasons. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng have been playing quite well, even together as Kevin Garnett has been out, as are both in play against Jordan and the generally much weakened Clippers frontcourt.
When Blake Griffin is out, the usage and burden of offensive production falls on Chris Paul and JJ Redick becomes more involved as well. Both are in play against the Timberwolves backcourt that is a slightly positive matchup for opponents.
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,200)
- Gorgui Dieng ($5,700)
- Chris Paul ($9,600)
- J.J. Redick ($5,100)