It’s Tuesday, and if you paid up for Russell Westbrook, got the triple-double and then watched as Jeff Teague scored the same points for half the price, then get up, stretch your arms, sit back down and then dive into the waters of this short, but sweet five-game main slate. Stop asking why you and let’s get to it!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Stats from StatMuse, NBAWowy, and NBA Stats
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Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Line: Celtics -2.5
The big plays for the Knicks the last couple of games has been to roster Langston Galloway as he slid over from the point to cover Jose Calderon as he recovers from a groin injury. Calderon practiced Monday, remains questionable, but hopes to play. This puts an end to Galloway’s big value because he’ll get fewer minutes and his salary has risen to 4.9K. The last time these two teams met, Carmelo got hurt midway through the game and Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis went bananas. With everyone healthy, the Knicks feel a little price inflated, even in this strong matchup. Focus on the values and usage, which means Carmelo is a play at 8.4K and Robin Lopez at 4.7K.
The nightly question with the C’s is how they’ll deploy their bigs. Last time, it was Amir Johnson getting the high 20s minutes, while Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk battled after the scraps. Jae Crowder is questionable but didn’t sound likely to go tonight, putting Evan Turner’s minutes in safer territory and bringing Jonas Jerebko at near minimum into consideration.
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,400)
– Robin Lopez ($4,700)
– Amir Johnson ($5,100)
– Jonas Jerebko ($3,100)
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
Line: Rockets -4.5
One of the slowest teams in the league gets a bit of a pace bump here against the Rockets, the eighth fastest team. Hassan Whiteside is on the wrong side of questionable, so that means more Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire in the frontcourt. Stoudemire has played well, but his cost has risen to 4.4K and Bosh will definitely be leaned on against the quicker Rockets frontcourt. The Rockets give up so much to wings, so Dwyane Wade can continue his Fountain of Youth production in this game.
James Harden has been on fire, but Dwight Howard’s presence looms and it’s unlikely he’ll get tossed out of the game again after getting four technical fouls over the last couple of games. With the Heat a little stingier at the wings and Stoudemire trying to keep up with Howard up front, this may be more of a split like we saw most of January, leaving Howard in a better position to make value than the 10+K Harden. Meanwhile, since returning from injury, Patrick Beverley’s been cooking, with 30+ DK point games in the last two games.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Dwight Howard is OUT tonight.
With Howard out, look for the Rockets to share the frontcourt across a mixture of Josh Smith, Terrence Jones and Clint Capela. In three games without Dwight in late January, Smith played at least 21 minutes in each contest while Capela averaged just over 20 minutes per game as well. Jones didn’t factor in as much during that stretch and his minutes have been dwindling of late.
– Chris Bosh ($7,700)
– Dwyane Wade ($7,300)
– Dwight Howard ($7,300)
– Patrick Beverley ($4,500)
Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns
Line: Raptors -9
Kyle Lowry and the rest of the Raptors laid a pretty large egg in Denver last night, but can rebound against the Suns tonight. Lowry is in a good spot and is a relatively good tourney option as the spread and last night’s game will leave a little cloud over his name before folks click. The backcourt is where you attack the Suns so Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have to be the main targets here. Terrence Ross (with James Johnson highly questionable) and Cory Joseph are low upside value picks if so inclined. The Raptors aren’t likely to go small ball, so Alex Len is worth a look at 4.6K here. Markieff Morris is the gunner off the bench now for the Suns, getting over 28% usage in two of the last three games for PHX.
– DeMar DeRozan ($8,100)
– Kyle Lowry ($8,700)
– Alex Len ($4,600)
– Markieff Morris ($4,800)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Line: Blazers -7
Being on a back to back, tired legs would affect shooters more than frontcourt players. Milwaukee swallowed up Sacramento last night up front, with nice games from Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They’ll be asked to do the same with John Henson still sidelined with his back injury (questionable, officially, for this game) and the Blazers a little lighter on the defensive side up front with Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard, Ed David and Noah Vonleh.
Portland, at home, should be able to take advantage of some of that Bucks fatigue, so Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are the main users and targets here. Mason Plumlee played terrific in January, albeit in short minutes. His 30 DK point upside is always a target at his salary.
– Greg Monroe ($7,000)
– Jabari Parker ($5,300)
– C.J. McCollum ($6,900)
– Mason Plumlee ($5,500)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Timberwolves -4.5
Attacking Lakers and the point and center positions has been tried and true, and the Timberwolves have a couple of really good players to do that with Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns. Gorgui Dieng has been excellent in relief of Kevin Garnett and would be a fun play against the Lakers tonight.
Larry Nance continues to miss games, giving Julius Randle some extended 30+ minutes run. He didn’t play well his last time out, yet still was able to clear enough garbage late in the game to get a double-double. The Lakers usage is dominated in the guards, so we’ll watch who is starting, but Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson are the main targets there with Kobe ailing and D’Angelo Russell in Byron Scott’s crosshairs. If Kobe is playing, his usage and price dictate being a target here.
– Ricky Rubio ($6,500)
– Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,800)
– Julius Randle ($6,400)
– Kobe Bryant ($5,400)