We have 8 games scheduled for Saturday with one starting at 3:30 between the Heat and the Celtics. The main slate and all the big money is on the 7 game slate that starts at 7PM, so we will be concentrating on that one here. The crown jewel of this slate is easily the Golden State and Oklahoma City game. The 234 total should tell us that no matter what, we need to have some exposure to it. Many of the other games are also slated to reach into the 200s, but this one stands out the most in terms of potential fantasy value. Let’s take a look at each matchup and which players in those games stand to benefit the most.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans

Over/Under: 217
Line:Pelicans -4

This should be a game that features some good stat lines for fantasy purposes. Both teams have been playing into the 100-110 range lately and giving up about as many points or more. New Orleans has been playing better ball. They were struggling for a bit before reeling off 5 wins in their last 7 games. Guys like Norris Cole and Jrue Holiday have played well and they continue to get good production from their forwards like Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. They will be welcoming back Eric Gordon today as well, which is good timing since Bryce Dejean-Jones just went out with an injury. On the other side of the court, Minnesota has struggled recently with only 4 wins in their last 13 games. Fantasy wise they have been pretty solid though. The big man Duo of Dieng and Towns has produced nice returns for a few weeks now. The price has also adjusted to account for it, so they are no longer must plays. Ricky Rubio has also picked up his game of late. He has gone 6X or better in 4 of his last 5 games and his last ten is littered with solid 5X performances except for two bumpy outings. This is the second highest total on the board today and one of the faster paced games we should see. The OKC/GS game does have a total that is 17 points higher, but this is the spot I would look at next to round out my rosters with some cheaper options.

Targets

  • Eric Gordon ($4600)
  • Jrue Holiday ($7700)
  • Ricky Rubio ($6400)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns ($8600)

Portland Trailblazers @ Chicago Bulls

Over/Under: 209.5
Line: Trailblazers -4.5

Vegas has been slow to post a line here due to the uncertainty around the Bulls roster. Butler is out and Rose has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. Despite this, the Bulls have started to play pretty well as they have won 3 of the last 4, including wins over Washington and Toronto. Pau Gasol has been a big reason. Despite being banged up, he has gone for 40+ fantasy points in seven of the last eight games. Gasol is getting some help on the offensive end from Doug McDermott and Mike Dunleavy who have both picked it up over the last week. The Blazers are a very easy team to figure out where the points are going to come from. The Bulls are weak defending guards with no Butler in there and the duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum do most of the damage for the Blazers anyway. Both guys have good matchups and both should put up a big number. Plumlee and Aminu are fringe options as well, especially against a pretty weak frontcourt. The Bulls have given up a bunch of points with Butler out over the past few games and the Blazers play fast and usually score and give up a bunch. I would not be shocked to see a high total when Vegas does post it, whether Derrick Rose plays or not.

Targets

  • Pau Gasol ($8500)
  • Doug McDermott ($4000)
  • CJ McCollum ($7500)
  • Damian Lillard ($9600)

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 213
Line: Spurs -5.5

I know the spread is only 5 here, but I think the Spurs put a hurting on the Rockets today. At the very least, I think I want to stay as far away from James Harden as I can. Harden never plays well against San Antonio. they make an effort to get the ball out of his hands early and not let him get it back. In two games against the Spurs this season, he only scored 25 and 27 fantasy points. Not real life points, but total fantasy points. The Rockets as a team were held to 84 and 99 points in those two games. A normally high scoring team that plays games in the 210-220 total range has really struggled against San Antonio. On the flip side, I really like LaMarcus Aldridge in this one. Aldridge has played well vs. Houston and the Rockets have been really bad against power forwards this season. It seems like the perfect matchup for him. I also think Kawhi Leonard will see a lot of floor time and may be matched up on Harden quite a bit. If that is the case, he too should be able to reach upside with a high number of minutes played helpig to provide a nice floor. I fully expect San Antonio to win this game easy and the Rockets will need someone other than Harden to step up if they are going to have a chance.

Targets

  • Kawhi Leonard ($7600)
  • LaMarcus Aldridge ($6700)
  • Trevor Ariza ($5800)
  • Dwight Howard ($7200)

Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under: 203
Line: Mil -2

Detroit is a very tough team for me to figure out. They lost five games in a row and then come back and beat the Eastern Conference leading Cavaliers. They do tend to play slower paced and lower scoring games though, so you need to be cautious using too many guys on their team or playing against them. Due to some injuries, guys are playing big minutes over there now. Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson are two of those guys. Those two along with Andre Drummond are the main threats for fantasy points from Detroit. Drummond should have a good matchup against a weak interior he ate up earlier in the season. As for the Bucks, they are playing pretty well lately. The young guys have really stepped it up for them in the second part of the season. Giannis has been a monster in terms of fantasy production and the increased minutes for Jabari Parker have also translated into positive gains for his stats and the team. Milwaukee plays at a slightly higher pace and their totals tend to be a tad higher as well, but this is actually one of the lower scoring games we will probably see today.

Targets

  • Andre Drummond ($8200)
  • Tobias Harris ($6400)
  • Giannis Antetekounmpo ($7800)
  • Jabari Parker ($6500)

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Over/Under: 234.5
Line: Warriors -3.5

This is the game everyone wants to see and will likely be highly owned for fantasy purposes. The main question to ask yourself is do you want Steph or Russ in this one. Both guys had 51 fantasy points the last time the two met, but they do it in different ways. Russ contributes across the board and is a triple double threat nightly. They really do not have a great option to put on him, so he should definitely get his. Steph on the other hand has been scorching the net in the last few games. Steph has 129 real life points in his last 3 games, which includes 21 3-point field goals. Both guys should have big games here with the huge totals. Durant should also put up some numbers in this one since he is the other high sage option for the Thunder. He has shown a floor of over 40 fantasy points with upside games in the 50, 60, and 70 point range in the last 10 games. Draymond Green should see towards his season high in minutes here as well, which is a good thing for his fantasy value. He contributes across the board stats, so the more minutes he plays the more of them he racks up. He has 11 triple doubles on the year already, and this is a good spot for him to maybe grab a twelfth. The huge total and insane pace should benefit all the starters on both teams in this one, so all the fringe options are interesting for their prices as well. With the game having a total almost 20 points higher than any other, you almost have to have some exposure here if you plan on winning anything today.

Targets

  • Russell Westbrook ($11000)
  • Kevin Durant ($10100)
  • Steph Curry ($10700)
  • Draymond Green ($8400)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns

Over/Under: 208
Line: Grizzlies -6.5

The Suns have lost 13 straight games and have not seen a win since January 23rd. They are playing high scoring games, so they likely pace up the slower paced Memphis team they face here. Memphis has looked decent despite losing starting center Marc Gasol. Zach Randolph and Mike Conley have picked up their games, but the price has risen to reflect that fact. Z-Bo is still reasonably priced, but Conley is a tad expensive for upside at over $7K currently. Guys like Matt Barnes, Jamychal Green, and Brandon Wright have picked up their games to compliment Conley and Randolph, so those guys make more sense to use with the cheaper price tags. For the Suns, we have a lot of guys playing, but not many reaching value. Two of the better options for fantasy lately are Tyson Chandler and Mirza Teletovic. Both guys are pretty cheap and have put up some good numbers. The matchup is not ideal for the suns, but I like the cheap price of those two. It gives them a solid floor and a good chance for upside in this matchup. The Grizzlies should win this game and I do think we see a few useful fantasy stat lines come from it on both sides.

Targets

  • Zach Randolph ($7000)
  • Brandon Wright ($3800)
  • Tyson Chandler ($4600)
  • Mirza Teletovic ($5300)

Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

Over/Under: 195
Line: Jazz -11

This is by far the ugliest game on the slate and one I will be avoiding. Utah is a stout defensive team that plays at a slow pace. The Nets are just a bad team that recently released one of the top scorers and high minute guys they had in Joe Johnson, so that can not be considered a positive thing. Using the Vegas line as a guide, the final score here is predicted to be 103-92 Jazz. The hope is that it stays close for long enough to give the starters full run, otherwise no one in this game may reach value. Bojan Bogdanovich is the safest play in my eyes. With Joe Johnson gone, he will see big mnutes regardless of the game flow. Brook Lopez is basically the main cog for the Nets, so despite the tough matchup they will still be force feeding him the ball if they want to have any chance of keeping this one close. For the Jazz, Derrick Favors has been the guy doing work. He scores and rebounds well enough to make value even in low total games. I would not be thrilled having to pay up today, so I think Shelvin Mack is the other option I would look at. Mack has been playing good minutes since coming over and the cheap price tag means he does not need to do much here to make value. I will have limited to no exposure to this game. With the lowest total on the board, I would advise others to do the same.

Targets

  • Derrick Favors ($7500)
  • Shelvin Mack ($4500)
  • Brook Lopez ($7500)
  • Bojan Bogdanovich ($3900)