The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

 

NBA Sunday Matinee

We have some real nice prize pools today for some of the later starts. We have two games tipping off at 6:05 Eastern time, so make sure you get those line ups done by then.Check these out:

$100,ooo Crossover with $20 buy in

$50,000 Layup with $2 buy in

 

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Sixers @ Magic

Game Analysis

The Sixers are in rebuilding mode. They traded away reigning rookie of the year MCW and KJ McDaniels who was seeing a lot of minutes earlier in the year. They are left with a rag tag group of guards to go along with guys like Covington and Noel. The Magic have been playing better recently and the defense is the reason. They are playing at a slower pace which affects the points on both ends of the floor. They do have a good match up today as Philly has struggled to defend big men. Orlando is a big favorite and the total is the lowest on the day. It’s probably the worst spot for fantasy today so be cautious if you use any of these guys.

Line: Magic -8, O/U 189

Players to Watch

  • Nerlens Noel, PF, Sixers ($5600)
  • Robert Covington, PF, Sixers ($6200)
  • Victor Oladipo, SG, Magic ($6900)
  • Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic ($8400)

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Warriors @ Pacers

Game Analysis

Golden state has won seven of their last eight but has been playing to the under more often due to their stout defense. The Pacers have also won six of their last eight andhave played to the over more often based on their scoring picking up. The Pacers are healthy after the break and have all the big men back that were sitting out. Despite the Pacers being at home and scoring better I still think the Warriors are going to dominate in this one. They create match up problems for Indy and despite the recent uptick I’m not sure Indy has the firepower to match the pace the Warriors like to play at. Both teams are paced up lately, so we should see a ton of points and my hope is the Pacers can keep it close enough at home to allow full run for both teams starters. In that case we could see some nice fantasy scores here.

Line:  Warriors -6.5, O/U 205.5

Players to Watch

  • CJ Miles, SF, Pacers ($4400)
  • George Hill, PG, Pacers ($5400)
  • Klay Thompson, SG, Warriors ($7600)
  • Harrison Barnes, SF, Warriors ($4200)

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Nuggets @ Thunder

Game Analysis

The Nuggets are a mess and Russell Westbrook is a man possessed. Whether or not Durant plays today is irrelevant to me as Westbrook has been that good lately. As of now there’s no word on KD, but even if he is out I do not see the Thunder struggling here. The additions of Enes Kanter and Mitch McGeary to the rotation have really helped the Thunder have something of an inside presence finally. As for the Nuggets they are a mess. Lawson was benched for being late coming back from the all star break and half the team despises head coach Brian shaw who honestly looks lost at the moment. The normally high scoring Nuggets are not scoring and playing slower recently. The huge minutes guys were playing look to be taking a tooll as we get into the late part of the season. Add on top of that they really are not a talented line up and you have all the makings of a blow out in this one. I will be shying away from this game for the most part. A couple guys could go off, but likely most starters see reduced minutes, so be careful here.

Line: Thunder -12. O/U 212

Players to Watch

  • Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder ($10,600)
  • Mitch McGeary, PF, Thunder ($3800)
  • Danilo Gallinarri, SF, Nuggets ($4400)
  • Jusuf Nurkic, C, Nuggets ($5200)

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Hornets @ Mavericks

Game Analysis

Not sure why the spread here is so high. Mo Williams made his debut yesterday and MKG is back from injury. Add in Gerald Henderson who has played well and Al Jefferson who has been good all season and they have a solid core to rely on. For Dallas Chandler Parsons is definitely out and despite what the reports say I do expect to see Dirk in uniform. He is banged up, but likely not bad enough to force him to sit. The Hornets were a very slow paced team reently, but all of a sudden they have picked up their scoring and pace. They have also given up a ton more points lately, so I was surprised to see a Dallas total under 200 here. The MAvs have played nine games in a row with at least a 200 total so I think this one could go over based on all the recent trends. I do not see the Hornets winning this in Dallas based off their recent form, so the MAvs should be your targets here. Throw in the added shots to spread around with no Parsons and I think you have a nice recipe for outperformance.

Line: Mavs -10, O/U 198

Players to Watch

  • Mo williams, PG, Hornets ($4800)
  • Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Hornets ($5600)
  • Monta Ellis, SG, Mavs ($7100)
  • Tyson Chandler, C, Mavs ($6500)

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Grizzlies @ Trailblazers

Game Analysis

This is one of the best match ups to watch on the day, but the lower total is not great for fantasy. The good news is the spread is low and you should get full run out of all the starters here. Portland has won four of it’s last six and is consistently playing to totals right around 200.  They added some wing depth recently to help offset the big minutes Wes and Batum have played, so while I like the move it does hurt the fantasy value of those guys. Robin Lopez back has helped them on the front line. They will need a big game from that front line against a grizzlies team that is dominate up there. Z Bo and Gasol have carried this team all season and will be asked to do so again here today. DvP wise the blazers have some tough match ups today. It’s easiest on the other side for PG Mike Conley, but overall I expect a pretty hard fought battle here with a lower total and a close score.

Line: Blazers -3, O/U 194

Players to Watch

  • Mike Conley, PG, Grizz ($6500)
  • Marc Gaasol, C, Grizz ($7400)
  • Damian Lilliard, PG, Blazers ($8300)
  • Robin Lopez, C, Blazers ($4500)

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Celtics @ Lakers

Game Analysis

Injuries have opened up a lot of minutes for guys in Green with shamrocks on their uniforms. For fantasy purposes they have a ton of solid value plays. This is especially true against a Lakers squad that has been very generous to opposing offenses. The Lakers are in a total rebuildmode as well. They are letting some of the younger unheralded guys get a shot to see what they can do at this level. Guys like Davis, Clarkson, and Ellington are all seeing career highs in minutes. The Celtics have won 4 of 6 recently while the Lakers have lost seven in a row. Both teams are playing to the over more often and seeing totals a tad below 200. I think this game leans the Celtics way, but stays close and gets over 200 points. Given the cheap prices on both sides I would recommend some exposure here today if you need to round out a roster. Fantasy wise this is one of the best late games we have to target.

Line: Celtics -2, O/U 200

Players to Watch

  • Brandon Bass, PF, Celtics ($5200)
  • Isiah Thomas, PG, Celtics ($5200)
  • Jordan Clarkson, PG, Lakers ($5000)
  • Ed Davis, PF, Lakers ($5200)