Tuesday is here and it brings us a solid, six game main slate with some very tasty matchups. It’s going to be fun to get into some of the high game totals and overall offensively friendly games we should see tonight. With those games to dig into, let’s see who we’re rostering tonight. As always, if you have any questions, hit me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
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Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers
Line: Warriors -5.5
Pace: Golden State (3rd), Indiana (12th)
Offensive Rating: Golden State (1st), Indiana (9th)
Defensive Rating: Golden State (5th), Indiana (6th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 11.6 in favor of Warriors
Harrison Barnes is out for the Warriors and Monta Ellis is expected to play for the Pacers.
Klay Thompson has not been lights out this season, but since Harrison Barnes has been out, as he is against tonight, Thompson has been more productive. Over the last four games, Thompson has scored 35.3, 29.8, 36.5 and 36.3 DK points. His salary being 6.4K, he is in play for tonight given the Pacers lone weak spot defensively has been out of the SG position. Anytime there is a game against another great team, Stephen Curry has to be considered in tournaments. George Hill is a tough defender this season, but Curry has overcome tough matchups rather easily this season.
Paul George has been insane lately, with three games over 60 DK points, including a 71.5 performance against the Jazz. But the Warriors great strength has been defending the small forward position and even without Barnes, George is sure to see a lot of the defensive effort from Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green. The last time he faced similarly stiff competition, he locked up with Al-Farouq Aminu and was held in check for 21 DK points. Very low exposure to Paul tonight for me. Only against Curry are the Warriors a little weak defensively, so George Hill could be in play. Otherwise, you have to look at Rodney Stuckey, who is back to his high scoring ways off the bench with games of 29.3, 38.3 and 30.8 in his last three games. If Paul George does struggle, the Pacers will need Stuckey’s scoring to loosen things up.
– Klay Thompson ($6,400)
– Stephen Curry ($10,600)
– Rodney Stuckey ($4,700)
– George Hill ($5,700)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Line: Cavs -9
Pace: Cleveland (28th), Portland (22nd)
Offensive Rating: Cleveland (6th), Portland (10th)
Defensive Rating: Cleveland (14th), Portland (20th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 3.7 in favor of Cleveland
Mo Williams is questionable for the Cavs.
Two slow teams but highly offensively capable, the Cavs are defensively sound against every position but the shooting guard, so CJ McCollum is a good target at 6.6K and games of 39.3, 39.3 and 35.3. Potentially meaningless, but interesting, stat, McCollum is also second in the league in fourth quarter minutes per game, one of only two players over 10 fourth quarter minutes per game (Cory Joseph the other). Ed Davis has found some favor in Terry Stotts, getting enough floor time to get six of seven games over 25 DK points. His salary has finally climbed to over 5K. Word of caution though with Ed is that he can get into foul trouble and he’ll have his hands full with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. Damian Lillard and his over 30% usage should always be on your radar, but he’s a better play if Mo Williams plays tonight than if Mo sits and Lillard has to go against Matthew Dellavedova.
Portland started the season weak in the backcourt defense, but they’ve shored that up. Where they are really weak is up front, so Love, Thompson, et al should be good targets tonight against Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard and Davis. While he’s a target at 4.5K if he starts, don’t get too excited about starting Dellavedova. in the five games this season he’s played 30 or more minutes in a game, he’s scored an average of 23.54 DK points. It really doesn’t seem to matter who LeBron is going against right now, so the fact he’s going to draw Aminu doesn’t really register too much. His salary is a very reasonable 10K and he’s averaged 48.8 DK points over his last 10 games. So solid in cash games right now.
– CJ McCollum ($6,600)
– Damian Lillard ($8,700)
– LeBron James ($10,000)
– Kevin Love ($8,300)
Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets
Line: Rockets -4
Pace: Houston (9th), Brooklyn (16th)
Offensive Rating: Houston (17th), Brooklyn (29th)
Defensive Rating: Houston (27th), Brooklyn (24th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 2.3 in favor of the Rockets
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is out for the Nets tonight.
These are two teams that can get beat on defense. The Nets are getting crushed up front, thanks to Brook Lopez, so Dwight Howard is a good target. Howard is going to play both ends of this back to back, with his minutes capped at around 30. Even at that level, Howard’s looking at 35-40 DK points tonight against Lopez, making him a fine cash play but ceiling limited in tourneys. James Harden is averaging 57.4 DKPPG over his last 10 games, so at 10,600, against a Nets team that is fifth worst against opposing SG, he’s still good to go. Patrick Beverley continues to earn the majority of minutes at PG and at 4.7K, in this kind of high-total, high possession game, he’s a nice low end value play.
The Rockets can get attacked at the SF/PF positions, where they are the worst and second worst, respectively. Thaddeus Young has been inconsistent given his high salary (7.1K), but he’s in play tonight against this matchup. Also, Howard isn’t the defensive rock he once was and has been getting beat. Brook Lopez has the outside game Howard doesn’t want to deal with so Lopez is a solid play here, too.
– James Harden ($10,600)
– Dwight Howard ($7,000)
– Thaddeus Young ($7,100)
– Brook Lopez ($7,700)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
Line: Thunder -2.5
Pace: Oklahoma City (6th), Memphis (24th)
Offensive Rating:Oklahoma City (2nd), Memphis (23rd)
Defensive Rating: Oklahoma City (10th), Memphis (19th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 9.5 in favor of Thunder
The Grizzlies started slow defensively, but they made some changes to their lineup and are seventh in DEFRAT over their last ten games. They are rock solid up front, led by Marc Gasol, but can still be had on the wings and at the point a little. With both Russell Westbrook (10.4K) and Kevin Durant (10.1K) similarly priced, there’s no reason to target elsewhere for the Thunder. Sometimes Steven Adams (3.8K) can be a sneaky play, but with Gasol on lock down right now, this isn’t the matchup to get cute there.
On the other side only Gasol is a consistent play right now for Memphis, with Mike Conley a close second. Gasol doesn’t have a terrible matchup. It’ll be tougher when Adams is on the court, but easier when Enes Kanter is out there. Conley will have to chase around Westbrook which limits him somewhat, but he’s a solid play on the offensive end for Memphis. The rest of the fantasy goodness has been split up among all the wingy-type players Memphis has been mixing and matching with lately, with Matt Barnes, Mario Chalmers, Courtney Lee and Jeff Green taking turns. Would love to roster Zach Randolph, but while his matchup is a slight positive, Z-Bo just hasn’t been consistent enough to trust here.
– Russell Westbrook ($10,400)
– Kevin Durant ($10,100)
– Marc Gasol ($7,300)
– Mike Conley ($6,700)
Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets
Line: Nuggets -3
Pace: Orlando (20th), Denver (18th)
Offensive Rating: Orlando (20th), Denver (25th)
Defensive Rating: Orlando (8th), Denver (25th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 7.9 in favor of the Magic
Danilo Gallinari is questionable at this time for the Nuggets, as is Gary Harris.
The Nuggets backcourt is a mess and teams are exploiting that. They are second worst in the league at both defending the PG and SG positions. This puts Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo front and center for targets on the Magic tonight. The Magic have been leaning on their starting backcourt for more production recently, as Oladipo has broken out of the usage share the Magic had employed and has established himself above the group at nearly 27% over the last 10 games. Payton has led the team in DKPPG over that same span of games. Nikola Vucevic has also been in that three-man mix with Oladipo and Payton, but the Nuggets center defense has been better with Joffrey Lauvergne back there for the Nuggets.
With Michael Malone mixing and matching so much to find out what he has there in Denver, you can’t trust anyone back there, even for value. If Gallinari plays, he’s the only one that can be counted on, minutes wise, but even he has been affected by the chaos, getting only 20% usage over the last five games. Best to stay away from this situation until it congeals.
– Elfrid Payton ($6,400)
– Victor Oladipo ($6,600)
– Nikola Vucevic ($7,000)
– Danilo Gallinari ($7,000)
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings
Line: Kings -2
Pace: Utah (30th), Sacramento (1st)
Offensive Rating: Utah (16th), Sacramento (15th)
Defensive Rating: Utah (15th), Sacramento (28th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 5.7 in favor of the Jazz
Rudy Gobert is out for the Jazz and Willie Cauley-Stein is out for the Kings.
This is an interesting game total considering the usually pedestrian paced Jazz, but perhaps they are looking at the last two games without Rudy Gobert, where the Jazz are 12th in pace. If the Jazz are a little more pacy, then you have to like Derrick Favors ($7,900) and Gordon Hayward ($7,000), the team’s usage leaders without Gobert. Trey Burke has done well the last two games, but that’s because Rodney Hood has been in foul trouble. Now, while it seems like Hood is always in foul trouble, you can’t count on that in order to roster Burke.
Boogie Cousins is fun, but his stamina has seemed off as he’s battled injuries and time off and his FG% has suffered, going 30% over his last four games. At 10.5K, he’s tourney-only and I’d rather have any of the 10K options I’ve listed already over him tonight, and that hurts to say. Going at Hayward is where the weak spot is in the Jazz defense, so Rudy Gay (6.9K) might be a sneaky play with Cousins healthy and in the lineup. Darren Collison is filling a need for someone to shoot and play defense from the SG position, so he’s a solid value in a high game total at 4.8K.
– Derrick Favors ($7,900)
– Gordon Hayward ($7,000)
– Rudy Gay ($6,900)
– Darren Collison ($4,800)