Licking your wounds or tired from celebrating your Monday NBA lineups? Gentle Tuesday brings us a solid five-game slate where the Atlanta Hawks(!) are featured in the top game total of the night. So, it’s going to be one of those slates….let’s get to it!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Line: Pistons -2
Pace: Detroit (18th), New York (23rd)
Offensive Rating: Detroit (23rd), New York (24th)
Defensive Rating: Detroit (10th), New York (16th)
Net Rating Differential (the higher the NRD, the more likely for a blowout): 2.8 in favor of the Pistons
We’ll see if tonight’s the night the Pistons take the wraps off of Brandon Jennings. He’s active, but has not played since returning from his Achilles injury.
If Jennings plays, Stan Van Gundy has said he still has Steve Blake over him in the rotation, so that should not impact Reggie Jackson’s minutes in a positive matchup for him against the Knicks. On such a short slate, Andre Drummond stands out anyway, but he is in a positive matchup here as well and, at 9.4K, gives you a 10K player’s upside for a reduced rate.
Kristaps Porzingis, while being fun to watch, is still averaging 28 minutes per game over his last four games, which at 7.4K means he’s priced to the ceiling of his potential tonight, which isn’t a positive play here. Carmelo Anthony, however, is priced at $900 more and gets more minutes (35 per game) and has significantly more usage at over 30%. He’s playing well and a high 40s DK point game is in play here tonight for Melo.
– Andre Drummond ($9,400)
– Reggie Jackson ($7,300)
– Marcus Morris ($5,700)
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,300)
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets
Line: Rockets -2.5
Pace: Atlanta (14th), Houston (6th)
Offensive Rating: Atlanta (7th), Houston (12th)
Defensive Rating: Atlanta (13th), Houston (23rd)
Net Rating Differential: 4.8 in favor of the Hawks
Terrence Jones is questionable for the Rockets and Tiago Splitter is out for the Hawks.
Like Drummond, Harden stands out on any slate, much less a short slate like this. With few prime SG situations out there tonight, Harden, in the highest game total of the night, at home, might be a must play on the slate. The Hawks are somewhat neutral, though they could use Thabo Sefolosha on Harden, but James’ usage will win out here and put him in the 50-60 DK point range tonight. Dwight Howard will be able to take advantage of the Hawks very low offensive rebounding totals to grab a lot of rebounds out there for Houston. He’s in a good matchup because of that floor and that Al Horford plays further out to the perimeter when he’s going against a true big center like Howard, reducing his chances for foul trouble.
You always have to watch the Hawks on the back end of a back-to-back in case Mike Budenholzer cuts minutes but the Hawks lost to Indiana Monday night and they can’t afford to blow off games right now, so Paul Millsap should be in line for regular minutes in a good matchup for him tonight. Horford should be in a decent spot as well as Howard isn’t going to want to come out on him offensively at the perimeter.
– James Harden ($10,300)
– Dwight Howard ($6,500)
– Paul Millsap ($7,700)
– Al Horford ($6,300)
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies
Line: Memphis -4.5
Pace: Miami (29th), Memphis (24th)
Offensive Rating: Miami (10th), Memphis (26th)
Defensive Rating: Miami (10th), Memphis (18th)
Net Rating Differential: 7.1 in favor of the Heat
Dwyane Wade is questionable for the Heat and Matt Barnes is suspended for the Grizzlies.
If Wade misses, we finally get some value in the mix, but this is a terrible game to find it as the game total is excruciatingly low because these teams are both slow grinders in pace. With the Grizzlies favored by 4.5, it likely means Wade is out, so the Gerald Green should get the start and we’ll see extra Tyler Johnson in the mix as well. Green is a one-trick pony, relying solely on point scored for fantasy relevance and while Johnson is a smidge better than that, neither is going to be providing huge multipliers in action tonight. Chris Bosh sees his usage fly up to 29.5 with Wade off the court this season and Goran Dragic is 25%. Both are where you want to go for the Heat tonight.
With Barnes suspended, we could see Zach Randolph back in the starting lineup for Memphis, but Bosh and Hassan Whiteside are tough matchups and Randolph’s salary is still 5.9K, which means it hasn’t caught up with his reduced minutes yet. Mike Conley may be in the best spot for Memphis, at 6.4K as Dragic’s defense has fallen off somewhat since his early season, lockdown start. Barnes’ absence could mean a few more minutes for Mario Chalmers, setting him up for a Narrative Street Revenge Game special tonight. Chalmers would be going against Green and Johnson off the bench. At 3.9K, it’s a risk, but a fun flyer for a guy who has 25.8% usage rate in a good setup for him tonight.
– Chris Bosh ($7,100)
– Goran Dragic ($5,500)
– Mike Conley ($6,400)
– Mario Chalmers ($3,900)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: Thunder -13
Pace: Milwaukee (26th), Oklahoma City (12th)
Offensive Rating: Milwaukee (25th), Oklahoma City (2nd)
Defensive Rating: Milwaukee (27th), Oklahoma City (9th)
Net Rating Differential: 15.0 in favor of the Thunder
John Henson is questionable to play for the Bucks.
As the Warriors showed last night, you can still make value in three shifts, even if you are priced over 10K, so Westy and Durant are definitely on my radar in a good matchup here. Milwaukee is a slower paced team, so it may not get too lopsided until later in the game. Enes Kanter has been exceptional in garbage time lately for the Thunder, collecting 34.5, 33.3 and 34.3 DK points in the last three games.
Jerryd Bayless came back and immediately stopped the production that Michael Carter-Williams had been building. Unless Bayless is going to get his minutes up to the 30s, both guys are out of play. So who is in play for Milwaukee? Greg Monroe and Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely play the most minutes and will be the most targetable on the team, given the Thunder have been playing excellent defense this season at all positions and with everyone healthy in Milwaukee, other value plays have evaporated there.
– Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant ($10,500 and $10,000)
– Enes Kanter ($4,900)
– Greg Monroe ($6,600)
– Giannis Antetokounmpo ($6,500)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets
Line: Cavs -6
Pace: Cleveland (28th), Denver (20th)
Offensive Rating: Cleveland (6th), Denver (20th)
Defensive Rating: Cleveland (7th), Denver (28th)
Net Rating Differential: 9.6 in favor of the Cavs
Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay are out for the Nuggets. Kyrie Irving will rest tonight for the Cavaliers.
LeBron James has been incredibly consistent this season, evidenced by his 47.3 DKPPG production. After the blowout in Portland and 35 DK point effort in Phoenix, and with other high priced starts like Harden, Drummond and Durant/Westbrook to choose from, LeBron could be overlooked tonight, making him a very interesting tournament play. With Kyrie resting on a back-to-back, James will likely pick up more production again tonight against the defensively woeful Nuggets. Kevin Love should also see an uptick in production as well and is the other good play for the Cavs tonight.
Over the last three weeks the Cavs have been giving up significant points to the power forward position, which makes Kenneth Faried a decent option in this one. The enthusiasm is tempered somewhat by Michael Malone’s minutes for Faried, which has been steady in the high 20s recently and over the course of the season so far. Will Barton and Jameer Nelson are 6.9 and 5.6K respectively and are no longer bargains. Nelson is going to gave Matthew Dellavedova tonight and that’s not a positive situation for Nelson. Barton has it a little easier but at nearly 7K he just doesn’t produce enough DKPPM to make value at that rate. In fact, with Gallinari and Mudiay out and Barton on the court, it’s Faried who leads the team in usage with over 27% and scored 1.30 points per minute compared to Barton’s 1.10. If you are looking for a tourney center, Nikola Jokic has the upside, but not consistency, to spike value. Jokic is regularly in the 20s in usage and over a DKPPM on the court, but his minutes are inconsistent. With a bigger Cleveland frontcourt, we could see Denver go big more, with Jokic, Faried and Lauvergne playing more minutes.
– LeBron James ($9.600)
– Kevin Love ($7,600)
– Kenneth Faried ($6,100)
– Nikola Jokic ($4,700)