Ah Tuesday, so simple and sweet. Tonight has unto us a short, four-game slate. Three of the four games have low game totals, so you don’t want to completely ignore the players in those game because, relatively, those games are even in terms of opportunity. Let’s get to it!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 or on the Swayy app @jaywalker72.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
Line: Grizzlies -10
Pace: Memphis (24th), Philadelphia (8th)
Offensive Rating: Memphis (26th), Philadelphia (30th)
Defensive Rating: Memphis (19th), Philadelphia (25th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout potential goes up as the differential gets higher): 9.1 in favor of the Grizzlies
Tony Allen is questionable for the Grizzlies.
How long will this game be in question…is the question. Marc Gasol is in a great spot against Jahlil Okafor, but it seems unlikely that Gasol will play his usual 34-36 minutes in this one. Mike Conley is the other solid play at 6.3K against the revolving door of Sixers point guards. One might think about Matt Barnes, but though he’s played very well since getting more run in Memphis, his salary has risen beyond the average of even his rising production (5.5K).
For the Sixers, I can’t wait for Robert Covington’s stock to drop further, because even now at 6.2K, he’s too high except in the nooks and crannies of tournament play. Meanwhile, our other favorite Sixer variant, Jerami Grant, has seen his salary dip to 4.2K, and given his consistent 26-28 minutes, he’s a good low cost play on this slate. Lastly, Nerlens Noel is 5.6K, has been getting 29 minutes per game lately and getting nearly a DK point per minute.
– Marc Gasol ($7,500)
– Mike Conley ($6,300)
– Jerami Grant ($4,200)
– Nerlens Noel ($5,600)
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Line: Heat -4
Pace: Detroit (19th), Miami (29th)
Offensive Rating: Detroit (23rd), Miami (11th)
Defensive Rating: Detroit (11th), Miami (5th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout potential goes up as the differential gets higher): 3.4 in favor of the Heat
Brandon Jennings is questionable and may make his 2015 debut tonight for the Pistons. Tyler Johnson is questionable for the Heat and Goran Dragic is a game time decision.
Brandon Jennings is back but how much will he play? Stan Van Gundy says that, right now, he wouldn’t play Jennings over Steve Blake on the second team, much less impact Reggie Jackson’s minutes. We’ll see if Jennings even sees the floor as he recovers from his Achilles injury, with reports talking about at least three more games before Jennings gets some action. More distressing about Jackson tonight is his matchup with the Heat, who are the toughest matchup for point guards in the league so far. Jackson will have a very tough road to make value on his 7.6K tonight and that has nothing to do with Brandon Jennings. Andre Drummond has a difficult road as well to make value of his 9.4K salary, but it’s not impossible and his ceiling is the highest on the slate tonight. The easiest matchup against the Heat will be from the small forward position, where Marcus Morris finally woke up in a similar matchup against the Bulls his last game, scoring 34.3 DK points. His salary is down to 5.5K and he’s still getting 38-40 minutes, putting him firmly in play tonight.
For the Heat, Hassan Whiteside has been extremely productive, if not for very long on the court. Eric Spoelstra has been sitting Whiteside out in fourth quarters, keeping his minutes per game below the 30 mark rather consistently. But that has risen lately, and his modest 6.8K salary makes outputs like his 51.8 outing against Portland his last time out a great value. Meanwhile, Goran Dragic hasn’t just been playing good defense at the point for the Heat, he’s been turning in good fantasy point nights as well. At 5.5K, Dragic is playing with an injured hand and is a game time decision tonight, but has been producing, sporting 28.5, 29, 33.3 and 39.8 games his last four times out. With Tyler Johnson already questionable, if Dragic misses the game, it could be a huge night, minutes-wise for Beno Udrih in a neutral matchup against the Pistons.
– Andre Drummond ($9,400)
– Marcus Morris ($5,500)
– Hassan Whiteside ($6,800)
– Goran Dragic or Beno Udrih ($5,500 or $3,000)
h2. Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors
Line: Raptors -4
Pace: Dallas (14th), Toronto (25th)
Offensive Rating: Dallas (15th), Toronto (8th)
Defensive Rating: Dallas (13th), Toronto (12th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout potential goes up as the differential gets higher): 1.7 in favor of Toronto
Jonas Valanciunas is questionable and DeMarre Carroll is doubtful for the Raptors. Devin Harris is questionable for the Mavericks.
If Valanciunas plays, that’s the end of the magical Biyombo value tour, but with Carroll still out, the James Johnson run can continue at least one more game. Johnson is priced at 3.9K and will probably be needed to keep newly refreshed Mavs SF, Chandler Parsons, in check. Johnson has popped 26.3 and 28 DK points in his last two games. If Jonas misses again, then Biyombo is right back in play at 5.2K. The guards, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the ones that are going to gobble up the offensive side of things and are both in play on this slate.
Parsons is back for the Mavs and finally went over 30 minutes the last game, vs Memphis. Parsons also kicked in 37.3 DK points, so folks will definitely be looking at his 4.6K salary and want to play. If he gets 30+ minutes again, I’m good at that salary for sure. If you are deploying a balanced roster strategy tonight, Dirk Nowitzki and his steady, 32 DKPPG is good with a fairly neutral matchup here.
– DeMar DeRozan ($7,400)
– Kyle Lowry ($8,300)
– Dirk Nowitzki ($6,400)
– Chandler Parsons ($4,600)
h2. Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Line: Nuggets -5
Pace: Los Angeles (11th), Denver (21st)
Offensive Rating: Los Angeles (29th), Denver (24th)
Defensive Rating: Los Angeles (29th), Denver (26th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout potential goes up as the differential gets higher): 7.2 in favor of the Nuggets
Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur and Jusef Nurkic is questionable for the Nuggets, while Emmanuel Mudiay remains out. Kobe Bryant is questionable for the Lakers.
Defense. Optional. This game features two of the worst on both sides of the ball, which might make for some ugly viewing and nose holding as you roster folks from the highest game total of the night. Let’s start with Will Barton, whose secret is out, now salaries at 6.6K. It’s remarkable that over the last four games, he’s averaged 39.1 DK points in 30 minutes per game. He had two monster games (44.8 vs. HOU, 58 vs New Orleans) and two okay games (24.3 vs. UTAH, 29.3 vs. MIN), so he’s exploiting the favorable matchups and getting stuck in the bad ones. Guess which one the Lakers are? The Lakers are adding 5.2% of value to opposing SG (per DFSGold) so Barton, as long as Michael Malone continues to see Barton is his best guy on the floor right now, is in good shape. Toss in the possibility of Gallinari missing this one and Barton goes up a little higher. Jameer Nelson has seen his salary rise to 5.4K since he took over for the injured Emmanuel Mudiay and, while he hasn’t blown away value, he’s in a great spot tonight against a Lakers team that is the worst against the PG position.
All eyes will be watching to see if Kobe plays. If he sits, Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell all get a bump. If he plays, he’s the one, averaging 41 DK points over his last four played games. Williams has been great, anyway and with all three guys priced the same below Kobe, he’s the target right now. Julius Randle is in a good spot, too, but it’s hard to trust Byron Scott’s usage of the young guy. And, in the four games Kobe has missed this season, Randle’s production has gone down significantly.
– Will Barton ($6,600)
– Jameer Nelson ($5,400)
– Lou Williams ($5,400)
– Kobe Bryant ($6,400)