We only have a five game slate on tap for Saturday NBA DFS action and some of the games do not scream out fantasy goodness. The lone exception is the Clippers/Rockets game with a huge total and low spread. We have two games with defensive struggles written all over them, one game that has some injury concerns, and one game that sets up as a bludgeoning of the Lakers by Oklahoma City. It’s definitely a tricky slate to play, so let’s take a look at how it should play out.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Over/Under: 209.5
Line: Thunder -16

OKC has won 10 of their last 13 games. They are scoring over 105 a game and limiting opponents to around 90-95 points. They are an easy team to target, because we know most of the production is going to come from Westbrook and Durant. The Lakers have only won 2 of their last 16 games. They struggle to reach the century mark and have given up over 100 points in all but one of the games during this stretch. This one is about as unevenly matched as any game on the slate and the spread definitely screams blow out risk. This is a real concern, because the three worst scores Westbrook has put up in the last month have been in games where OKC has won going away and Russ was limited to under 30 minutes. OKC should have no problem winning this one and the question you have to ask is whether it gets ugly early enough that the starters do not get full run. It’s tough to pay off a lofty price tag when you only see 2/3rds of your usual court time.

Targets

Lou Williams ($5300)
Jordan Clarkson ($5300)
Steven Adams ($4000)
Russell Westbrook ($10500)


Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards

Over/Under:
Line: Charlotte -1

The big news in this game is the injury situation. Al Jefferson and Bradley Beal are out. Nic Batum may be returning and Otto Porter’s status is up in the air. Depending on how all this works itself out, we could have some value open up in this game. Washington has been playing fast and giving up a lot of points. That leads to a tick up for most of the Charlotte roster. Batum’s status will be a big indicator of whether or not we can continue rolling out guys like Jeremy Lin who have been producing in his absence. I know guys like Kaminsky and Zeller have seen more minutes, but neither of them are really producing big numbers and they would remain fringe plays at best. John Wall has ticked up his stats to make up for Beal being out. I like him more than going with the cheap options like Neal and Temple to fill the Beal void. If Porter is also out, that would change as the wing minutes and usage would have to go somewhere. Gortat has been producing since his return from injury as well and has a soft matchup against a few back up power forward types with Big Al on the shelf. This game could stay close and the guys who benefit most from these injuries seem to be the ones you would expect to lately.

Targets

John Wall ($9300)
Marcin Gortat ($6300)
Kemba Walker ($7300)
Jeremy Lin ($5000)


Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks

Over/Under: 196
Line: Chicago -1.5

This is not the greatest game to target for fantasy, but on a five game slate we may still find some useful pieces here. Chicago has been playing .500 basketball lately. They seem to be back to a more defensive style with both their points scored and points allowed dropping below the century mark lately. The Knicks are actually playing some really good basketball lately, but have also alternated between four game winning and losing streaks for the better part of the last month. They play games that tend to be just under the 200 point total, so the line here looks about right. The Knicks have relied on Melo lately, with Porzingis chipping in some rebounds, blocks, and points to be a solid fantasy contributor. Guys like Kyle O’Quinn in limited minutes have also produced some nice stat lines. Chicago has been getting some big efforts of out Pau Gasol. Guys like Rose and Butler have also been solid, but neither is cheap or returning insane value at the lofty price tags. Joakim Noah was the best value option on the team over the last few weeks, but his ever increasing price seems to have him at fair value now. This game should be one of the lower scoring of the five on this slate, and Chicago is coming off a few OTs against Detroit, so you may see some guys get a few extra minutes of rest in this one.

Targets

Kyle O’Quinn ($3300)
Carmelo Anthony ($8300)
Derrick Rose ($6000)
Joakim Noah ($5100)


Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Over/Under: 198.5
Line: Memphis -1

Both of these teams have been a little disappointing so far this season. The Grizzlies have been losers of 6 of the last nine games. Indiana had a nice run, but has lost 4 of their last 7 too. They styles are definitely a clash as well. Indy has played a lot of games with totals that exceeded 200 by a good margin and the Grizzlies are content playing games in the 190 range. That should give a slight boost up to the Grizzlies here and tick down the Pacers high powered attack. Both teams have transitioned to the new NBA Norm with a big man in the middle and four wing players on the floor. For Indy that means Paul George playing more of a power forward role, while Memphis has countered with Jeff Green doing the same. The good news is the game should remain close, the bad news is that it is not one of the highest scoring games on the slate. Some exposure to this is OK, but I would be cautious about targeted this game heavily.

Targets

Mike Conley ($6000)
Marc Gasol ($7300)
Rodney Stuckey ($4500)
Paul George ($9200)


Los Angeles Clipers @ Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 213
Line: Houston -1

This one is the game to target for fantasy purposes. Both teams are well accustomed to playing games in the 200s. Houston is a little weaker defensively so I think the bigger boost goes to the Clippers. The problem is the Clippers are a tad more expensive for the guys who see the bulk of the usage. This game should feature a torrid pace and full run for all the starters. The Clippers struggle to guard the wing players, so guys like Ariza and Harden are in good matchups. On the flip side we have seen big men do well against the rockets, so Blake and DeAndre should have solid days as well. This game has the highest total and the lowest spread on the day, so not having any exposure here is likely a huge mistake.

Targets

Blake Griffin ($8800)
DeAndre Jordan ($6800)
James Harden ($10700)
Trevor Ariza ($5900)