Big Wednesday has dropped a 12-game mega-slate on us tonight and given us much to go through. Split cash lineups, multiple tournament entries and everything in between is on the board for tonight. Some of these games, as you’ll see below, should be ignored completely on such a large slate due to blowout potential. So many players, so many teams — let’s get to it!
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Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
Line: Pacers -4
Pace: Dallas (14th), Indiana (7th)
Offensive Rating: Dallas (9th), Indiana (10th)
Defensive Rating: Dallas (14th), Indiana (10th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout potential goes up as the differential gets higher): 1.8 in favor of the Pacers
Paul George is expected to play, though listed as questionable for the Pacers.
If George plays, he’ll be on the tournament radar, but his last three games have been well below value and the matchup against the Mavericks is below average. With everyone healthy for the Pacers, otherwise, the production is so spread out that it fails to provide a lot of fantasy value beyond George. George Hill is a good value and can provide solid production from the point guard position for his 5.3K salary with a slightly positive matchup against Deron Williams.
Zaza Pachulia is back under 6K, which means the coast is clear to roster him again. Pachulia has been a solid play all season, and he recently put up 30 DK points in 22 minutes against the pretty difficult Wizards defense up front. I expect he’ll get closer to 28-30 minutes tonight and the matchup against the Pacers is slightly positive, making Pachulia a lower owned, solid production play. The Pacers SG defense has been weak this season, so if the Mavs go 3-guards with Deron, Raymond Felton and Wesley Matthews, it could be another solid night for Felton, who has put four straight games of 28DK points and higher on the board.
– Paul George ($9,700)
– George Hill ($5,300)
– Zaza Pachulia ($5,800)
– Raymond Felton ($5,200)
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Line: Magic -1.5
Pace: Charlotte (17th), Orlando (18th)
Offensive Rating: Charlotte (5th), Orlando (21st)
Defensive Rating: Charlotte (6th), Orlando (7th)
Net Rating Differential: 4.7 in favor of Charlotte
Ok, hands raised, who knew the Hornets were showing this well right now? Fifth in OFFRAT and 6th in DEFRAT? Well then. The Magic are doing well defensively, but can be attacked in the backcourt, so both Hornets PGs, Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin, are playable as is Nicolas Batum. Lin has been getting solid minutes off the bench and has been producing, getting over 25 DK points in three of his last four games and his salary is only 4.2K.
On the Magic side, due to the way they split the production, and Victor Oladipo coming off the bench, value is limited here but Nikola Vucevic has been solid and gets a positive matchup here against Cody Zeller. Other than Vuc, Elfrid Payton is the man at the point and is a decent tourney play for his 6.4K salary. Payton has turned in performances of 30DK points or higher in 11 of his last 14 games.
– Kemba Walker ($7,000)
– Jeremy Lin ($4,200)
– Nikola Vucevic ($6,800)
– Elfrid Payton ($6.400)
Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
Line: Heat -4
Pace: Miami (26th), Brooklyn (15th)
Offensive Rating: Miami (18th), Brooklyn (29th)
Defensive Rating: Miami (2nd), Brooklyn (20th)
Net Rating Differential: 11.0 in favor of the Heat
Beat the Nets up in the frontcourt: A tried a true philosophy. Chris Bosh is definitely in play for the Heat. Bosh has been very consistent in the solitude that is South Florida this season, popping four 40 DK pt games in his last eight. The caveat here is that the Net Differential indicates a potential one-sided affair if the Nets’ home court doesn’t help. Hassan Whiteside would be a great play, but Erik Spoelstra seems set on limiting Whiteside’s minutes, so while his per minute numbers should be great against Brook Lopez, he’s not going to get the minutes volume to make value at his 6.6K salary. With Dwyane Wade battling fatigue, that leaves Goran Dragic as the next target on the Heat. Dragic has not produced this season, unless Wade or Bosh are out. With Wade tired against the Hawks in a positive matchup, Dragic responded by going for 39.8 DK points. He has a similar matchup tonight against Jarret Jack and has a smallish salary at 5.4K.
There isn’t much to like about the Nets matchup here. The one area the Heat have struggled with, the SF position, is manned by Joe Johnson right now, who hasn’t been great at all. Because of the matchup, it’s not a great place to target frontcourt usuals Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, so that leaves us going lower in the backcourt. Jarrett Jack has a terrible matchup against Goran Dragic, but has been producing at a value level for his 6.2K salary. And one-trick pony Bojan Bogdanovic is priced at 4.6K and will start.
– Chris Bosh ($7,200)
– Goran Dragic ($5,400)
– Jarrett Jack ($6,200)
– Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,600)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks
Line: Knicks -5
Pace: Minnesota (17th), New York (23rd)
Offensive Rating: Minnesota (14th), New York (24th)
Defensive Rating: Minnesota (19th), New York (16th)
Net Rating Differential: 1.2 in favor of the the Timberwolves
There aren’t many great places to target matchup wise on either side of this matchup, so go where the usage and minutes are and that’s clearly Carmelo Anthony. Melo is coming off back to back 50 DK point efforts and is well rested and at home against a Timberwolves team that played last night. Advantage, Anthony. Elsewhere, if you want to get tricky in a tournament roster, Kyle O’Quinn has been getting the center bench minutes at 3.1K and has been doing his usual mega-production over his last three games. He’s gone 25, 20 and 27.5 in his last three games. Imagine if he got more than 15 minutes per game.
The Timberwolves, like so many other teams, have flattened out their production, making their starters too high in salary to roster and their bench guys rising themselves. Zach LaVine turned in another solid effort Tuesday night, scoring 36 DK points and is in play again tonight for his 5.5K salary. Kevin Martin has the potential to score buckets in a hurry and is the other reasonable option, starting at SG and still below 5K. He can also have a ridiculously low floor, as he showed last night, so he’s a tourney only play.
– Carmelo Anthony ($8,000)
– Kyle O’Quinn (in case of tournament emergency, break for $3,100)
– Zach LaVine ($5,500)
– Kevin Martin ($4,800)
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
Line: Pistons -2
Pace: Boston (5th), Detroit (21st)
Offensive Rating: Boston (19th), Detroit (24th)
Defensive Rating: Boston (4th), Detroit (8th)
Net Rating Differential: 3.1 in favor of the Celtics
In a decent pace-up game for the Pistons, Andre Drummond should be a solid play at 9.1K. Drummond is still #1 in DK Net Points at 30.1 DK points per 36 just from peripheral stats. His matchup against Kelly Olynyk is positive and Drummond has put up 45.3, 51 and 53.3 in three of his last four games. Another soft spot against the Celtics is at SF, where Marcus Morris gets a ton of minutes, so he’s a solid play at 5.7K.
The salaries of the the Celtics are very high and in a pace-down game for them against a strong defensive team like Detroit, it’s not a good time to aim in the midline for targets here. Isaiah Thomas will continue to own usage and is the first place to go at 7.7K. You can look at Olynyk getting minutes to keep Drummond away from the defensive basket, but he’ll struggle on the other end and stay on the court, meaning Evan Turner at 4.9K is the next reasonable target here.
– Andre Drummond ($9,100)
– Marcus Morris ($5,700)
– Isaiah Thomas ($7,700)
– Evan Turner ($4,900)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks
Line: Hawks -13
Pace: Philadelphia (10th), Atlanta (19th)
Offensive Rating: Philadelphia (30th), Atlanta (13th)
Defensive Rating: Philadelphia (21st), Atlanta (15th)
Net Rating Differential (Blowout Potential): 13.5 in favor of the Hawks
Nerlens Noel is out for the Sixers.
With Noel out and playing against the Hawks, it’s all the Jahlil Okafor you can roster tonight for 6.9K. The Hawks are fourth worst at offensive rebounds and without Noel there to compete with Okafor, he should be in line for a double-double night. He’s been solid recently, too, scoring 41.5, 30.5, 45 and 36.5 DK points in his last four games. If Tony Wroten is truly without restriction, then he’s certainly a must play at 4K. Last game, however, he started but only played 18 minutes, indicating that even though they said there were no restrictions, clearly they did. Kendall Marshall will start at PG, though we don’t know what that means as we just stated above with Wroten. He’s an assist machine when he’s on the floor and is 3.1K, so he’s definitely in play.
Highly positive matchup in the frontcourt for the Hawks, so Paul Millsap and Al Horford are good plays tonight. Millsap is 12th in DK Net Points and plays the most minutes per game on the Hawks, which is why he’s consistently the best play in Atlanta, even at his 8K salary. Horford is a good player that sometimes plays too far out on the perimeter to have truly big games. Add in the Hawks game plan of abandoning the offensive glass, limiting Horford’s OREB and second chance hoops and there’s a ceiling to his games. Against Okafor, however, he has too good of a matchup to miss here.
– Jahlil Okafor ($6,900)
– Tony Wroten and Kendall Marshall ($4,000 and $3,100)
– Paul Millsap ($8,000)
– Al Horford ($6,500)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: Thunder -9.5
Pace: Portland (22nd), Oklahoma City (11th)
Offensive Rating: Portland (7th), Oklahoma City (2nd)
Defensive Rating: Portland (22nd), Oklahoma City (12th)
Net Rating Differential: 8.1 in favor of the Thunder
It’s ok to target the stars in this game, one of the highest game totals of the night. The matchup isn’t great for Kevin Durant, given the Al-Farouq Aminu defense, but he’s above that and has scored 49.3, 41, 60 and 61.5 in his last four games. Russell Westbrook has the slightly positive matchup against Damian Lillard, and has gone for 55.3, 46.8, 53.5 and 47.8 in his last four games. Having them both on the floor limits the oh-my-heavens potential for both, but they both produce big numbers together, too.
Lillard is eighth in usage for the season, at 31.2 for the season. He’s going to have to chase Russ all night, or maybe he won’t chase him, taking it easy so he can go back at Russ on the offensive end. Either way, for Portland to keep up, it’ll have to be a lot of Lillard to do it. I don’t like the combination of value and matchup everywhere else except Mason Plumlee at 5.1K. Plumlee is not getting the minutes he was getting with Meyers Leonard out, but can produce value if he gets to 30 minutes tonight.
– Kevin Durant ($10,200)
– Russell Westbrook ($10,400)
– Damian Lillard ($9,200)
– Mason Plumlee ($5,100)
Memphis Grizzlies @ Chicago Bulls
Line: Bulls -3.5
Pace: Memphis (24th), Chicago (9th)
Offensive Rating: Memphis (22nd), Chicago (27th)
Defensive Rating: Memphis (23rd), Chicago (3rd)
Net Rating Differential: 5.7 in favor of the Bulls
Tony Allen is questionable for the Grizzlies.
As we’ve been noting all season, the Grizzlies used to be a defensive power that slowed games down and suppressed scoring. Now, they’re just slow. Jimmy Butler is the top offensive play, matchup considered. Butler has gone over 37 DK points in three of his last four games. Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah have been very effective and produced a lot of DK points, but they have the toughest matchup on the court going against the other Gasol, Marc. Noah, at 5.1K, is likely the better play, given the salary.
Matt Barnes has been slid into the starting lineup and has delivered fantasy goodness in return. At 5.1K, his salary has yet to balance his production, scoring 36.5 and 42.8 in his last two games. Marc Gasol does get the benefit of the Bulls getting back on defense and leaving the offensive glass and his brother’s own loose center defense and is the next best target here at 7.4K.
– Jimmy Butler ($7,500)
– Joakim Noah ($5,100)
– Matt Barnes ($5,100)
– Marc Gasol ($7,400)
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs
Line: Spurs -12.5
Pace: Washington (4th), San Antonio (27th)
Offensive Rating: Washington (20th), San Antonio (3rd)
Defensive Rating: Washington (25th), San Antonio (1st)
Net Rating Differential: 18.1 (!) in favor of the Spurs
Bradley Beal and Nene are out for the Wizards.
Well, the Wizards are bad at defending wings and the Spurs have one of, if not, the best in Kawhi Leonard. But paying up for anyone in this game, considering the large slate of closer games elsewhere, seems iffy. If it were a close game, Leonard would definitely be the play against a weak Wizards defensive wing. Tony Parker at 5.2K would be the next target, but if you wanted to get frisky in a tournament, you could roster based on a Patty Mills (3.7K) game.
Hard to advise to pay up for John Wall at 9.5K, so I won’t here. Ramon Sessions is getting great minutes in Beal’s absence and is reasonably priced at 3.9K. Gary Neal is next at 4.2K and has also been the recipient of nearly 30 minutes per game with Beal out.
– Patty Mills ($3,700)
– Kawhi Leonard ($8,600)
– Ramon Sessions ($3,900)
– Gary Neal ($4,200)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
Line: Jazz -4
Pace: New Orleans (9th), Utah (30th)
Offensive Rating: New Orleans (17th), Utah (16th)
Defensive Rating: New Orleans (30th), Utah (17th)
Net Rating Differential: 5.8 in favor of the Jazz
With Rudy Gobert out the last nine games, Gordon Hayward has been more impactful on the offensive end and has sacrificed the defensive end to do it. This doesn’t necessarily help any Pelicans out but the Jazz, while being worst overall defensive in Gobert’s absence, has mainly seen that at that position. Anthony Davis is above all that and remains an elite tournament option, even in a slower paced game like this one. Tyreke Evans‘ salary still doesn’t reflect his status as playmaker #1 on the Pelicans and has a good matchup here. Lastly, Jrue Holiday uses a ton of possessions (27%, second to Davis) when he’s on the floor and is a must play when he’s active.
Ok, back to Utah. Hayward is the prime user, but his salary has gone up over 7K and a bit beyond a comfortable play. The backcourt is where the value is for the Jazz, and Alec Burks at 5K and Trey Burke at 4.3K have the best matchups and best chance to obliterate their value. Burke’s DKPPG has gone from 18 to 24 with Gobert out.
– Tyreke Evans ($7,300)
– Jrue Holiday ($4,700)
– Alec Burks ($5,000)
– Trey Burke ($4,300)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Line: Clippers -10
Pace: Milwaukee (28th), Los Angeles (12th)
Offensive Rating: Milwaukee (26th), Los Angeles (6th)
Defensive Rating: Milwaukee (26th), Los Angeles (13th)
Net Rating Differential: 8.7 in favor of the Clippers
Greg Monroe is questionable for the Bucks. Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez are out for the Bucks.
The Bucks are so bad up front that Roy Hibbert went off on them last night. DeAndre Jordan is very much in play for the Clippers tonight. Jordan is eighth in DK Net Points and has a nice 7K salary for entry into this game. JJ Redick has been shooting very well and making a lot of value for his 4.5K, but he’s the most dependent among qualified players on point scoring for value, averaging only 7 DK Net Points per 36 minutes and 1.5DKPPG of that is from three-point shot bonuses. Beware. Chris Paul has quietly dropped below 8K and if this game stays close, he has the matchup with Michael Carter-Williams and OJ Mayo to make value there.
The Bucks are banged up in the backcourt, making Carter-Williams a solid play at 5.9K, even off the bench. With Bayless out, MCW has games of 40.3, 37.8 and 38.3 in the last four. It was John Henson who started for Monroe last night against the Lakers, but it was Miles Plumlee who played same minutes and produced more, getting 21DK points for this 3K min salary.
– DeAndre Jordan ($7,000)
– Chris Paul ($7,900)
– Michael Carter-Williams ($5,900)
– Miles Plumlee ($3,000)
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
Line: Warriors -12
Pace: Phoenix (3rd), Golden State (2nd)
Offensive Rating: Phoenix (11th), Golden State (1st)
Defensive Rating: Phoenix (18th), Golden State (5th)
Net Rating Differential: 13.8 in favor of the Warriors
Harrison Barnes is out for the Warriors.
With Barnes out, the only things that have significantly changed is that Draymond Green is playing a little bit longer and both he and Klay Thompson have picked up some scoring load. Andre Iguodala’s minutes, production, etc has not changed at all with Barnes out. If the Suns keep this one in doubt, Stephen Curry is in line for a very nice game, considering the Suns are adding 7-9 percent of value (per DFSGold) to the PG position. Curry doesn’t need much help, but he’ll get it. Thompson should be back up and running and is playing at home, making his 6.6K salary and PHX’s fantasy help at SG in play here as well.
Like we said in the POR/OKC game, play the horses. Eric Bledsoe has popped three straight 50 burgers and rolls into this high game total ready for more. at 8.4K, he’s in play. With the salaries of Jon Leuer and Alex Len elevated in concert with their recent minutes and production, the safer play is to target Brandon Knight in this one, even if he’s chasing Curry all over the court.
– Stephen Curry ($10,700)
– Klay Thompson ($6,600)
– Eric Bledsoe ($8,400)
– Brandon Knight ($7,500)