The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

 

Tuesday Contests

$75K Lay Up Championship- $2 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

$400K Crossover Championship- $27 to Play >> DRAFT NOW

_____________________________________________________

Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets

Game Analysis

Charlotte has only won one of their last five games. The normally slow and steady defensive team has been playing faster and giving up a ton of points in recent games. They have a lot of banged up forwards, and the lack of depth in their front court is hurting them. The Pistons are also without one of their big men, as Greg Monroe continues to be out. It hasn’t really fazed them as they have played better in his absence. Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have really picked up their play and are a big reason for the winning streak. Detroit has won four of it’s last five. They are on the tail end of a road back to back, so that is a concern, but they have played well enough to make me believe they will still put on a good show. This is not a high total, but the spread is close, and we should see full run from the starters in this one.

Line: Hornets -4, O/U 196

Players to Watch

  • Reggie Jackson PG, Pistons ($8700)
  • Andre Drummond, C, Pistons ($8900)
  • Kemba Walker, PG, Hornets ($7500)
  • Marvin Williams, PF, Hornets ($4700)

_____________________________________________________

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards

Game Analysis

Philly has lost five of it’s last six. They play a game with the total up near 220 and come back and play the next game under 190. There is no rhyme or reason to most of the substitutions or the game flow when the 76ers step on the floor. Washington also has not played well lately, as they too have lost five of six. They have only scored over 101 one time in their last seven games. It’s truely not the best situation we have seen them in either this season. Vegas has a low total and a huge spread on this game. With eleven other games on the docket, I would not look to use this one heavily.

Line: Wizards -11, O/U 194

Players to Watch

  • Ish Smith, PG, Sixers ($6100)
  • Nerlens Noel, PF, Sixers ($8000)
  • John Wall, PG, Wizards ($8800)
  • Marcin Gortat, C, Wizards ($6000)

_____________________________________________________

San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic

Game Analysis

The Spurs have won six of their last seven and are averaging 107 points per game over this stretch. They are also playing championship caliber defense again, as they limit opponents to only 92 points. Orlando has lost nine of it’s last ten and have been playing to the over, due to some shoddy defense. They have allowed opponents to score over 100 points in six of their last seven games. This one does not set up very well for them. The only concern I have here is the Spurs starters are on the tail end of the back to back. It is very important to monitor who might be sitting at this point in the season, and I think there’s a good chance we may see a few Spurs rested in this one. If everyone plays, I think this is an easy Spurs win. The total is high, and the spread is not too bad, so I would have to favor them in this on. However, keep a close eye on the news flow before tip off.

Line: Spurs -8, O/U 200.5

Players to Watch

  • Tiago Splitter, C, Spurs ($4500)
  • Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs ($8100)
  • Elfrid Payton, PG, Magic ($7600)
  • Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic ($7800)

_____________________________________________________

Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks

Game Analysis

Brooklyn has won six of it’s last seven. They are playing at a much faster pace recently and have cracked triple digits in five of their last seven games. The pace, scoring and opponents scoring are all up, but unlike other situations, it has translated into wins. The Knicks, on the flip side, are a dumpster fire. They have lost nine of their last ten, with the only victory being the win over the Spurs two weeks ago. They do not play well on offense, they don’t stop anyone on defense, and they do not rebound very well either. This team has no redeeming qualities and few NBA caliber players on the roster currently. They also have a bunch of injuries, and that is the one thing that makes a few of them fantasy relevant. The Knicks are priced very low, but they are also all very inconsistent. I would expect an easy Nets victory here and not much from the other New York team.

Line: Nets -9, O/U

Players to Watch

  • Brook Lopez, C, Nets ($8000)
  • Deron Williams, PG, Nets ($5800)
  • Langston Galloway, PG, Knicks ($5100)
  • Andrea Bargnani, PF, Knicks ($5800)

_____________________________________________________

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

Game Analysis

Indiana has only won two of it’s last ten. They have not been putting up a ton of points, and the normally stout defense has played to the over in eight of ten, due to not being able to stop anyone. Eight of their last eleven games have gone over the spread today, so we could be in for a higher scoring game then Vegas expects. The Celtics have been very up and down lately. They are playing .500 basketball and doing it in all kinds of ways. They played two games that cracked a 200 total, followed by two games under 190, and two more games over 220. If you could tell me which team is going to show up today, I might be able to give you a better idea of how to play it. I do know the faster pace and higher recent scores coincided with Isiah Thomas rejoining the line up. IT2 only has one speed, and that is fast, so this is no surprise. The spread here is close, the total is nice, and I think there’s a chance it plays over based on recent results. Many of the players here are reasonably priced, so I think a bunch of them are in play tonight in this one.

Line: Boston -3, O/U 200.5

Players to Watch

  • George Hill, PG, Pacers ($7500)
  • David West, PF, Pacers ($5600)
  • Evan Turner, PG, Celtics ($5700)
  • Avery Bradley, SG, Celtics ($5800)

_____________________________________________________

Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks

Game Analysis

Chicago has won five of it’s last six and has been playing to the over in almost all of them. The normally slower Bulls have now scored over 100 in four of their last six. With Butler back and all the bigs healthy, they are also playing better defense. This team has come together at the best time and are going to be a tough match up for anyone come playoff time. Milwaukee has lost eight of it’s last ten. The scoring is down, and the Bucks struggle to stop anyone on defense lately. They have never been a high scoring squad, but they are usually a lot more solid on the other end of the floor. I like Chicago in this one with the way they have played lately, but both teams can defend when they want to, so I agree with Vegas that this one should be lower scoring. With the expensive options for Chicago dominating the ball, I would be very weary of the guys I roll out in this one, due to higher prices.

Line: Bulls -3, O/U 192

Players to Watch

  • Jeryd Bayless, PG, Bucks ($3500)
  • Zaza Pachulia, C, Bucks ($6100)
  • Pau Gasol, PF, Bulls ($8400)
  • Jimmy Butler, SG, Bulls ($8100)

_____________________________________________________

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Game Analysis

Dallas has lost four of their last five. They are still scoring right around 100 points but have been giving up a few more each game. Today they get an OKC team that has been putting up a lot of points and playing fast. It has managed to get them seven wins in their last ten games. They have played to the over more often, and the numbers would be higher if the totals were not 210+ every game, nearing 220. They have an explosive offense and a fast pace that is spearheaded by Russell Westbrook. Westy has proven he is every bit as good as any other star in this league with the way he has put this team on his broad shoulders. The spread here is tight and the total is huge, so you would be behind the eight ball if you decide not to have any exposure here.

Line: Thunder -4, O/U 216.5

Players to Watch

  • Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder ($12700)
  • Enes Kanter, C, Thunder ($7500)
  • Rajon Rondo, PG, Mavericks ($5800)
  • Chandler Parsons, SF, Mavericks ($6400)

_____________________________________________________

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Game Analysis

The Timberwolves have been pretty bad. They have lost five of their last six. They let opponents score at will and the only saving grace is they do score a little bit. They are currently without about four or five of their probable starters and are running out a skeleton crew nightly at this point. Lavine, Payne, Hamilton, and Buddinger are not names many expected to see in the starting five. Toronto has been slightly better, but they too are without their floor general in Kyle Lowry. They have managed to win a few games lately, but are not the same team when starting Vasquez over Lowry. This one doesn’t look like much on the surface, but it could see a big total and is chock full of high minute, low cost options. It’s tough to pick which one of the inconsistent guys plays well here, but the prices are nice if you want to try to pick them out.

Line: Raptors -8, O/U

Players to Watch

  • DeMar Derozan, SG, Raptors ($8000)
  • Jonas Valaciunas, C, Raptors ($6000)
  • Andrew Wiggins, SF, Timberwolves ($6600)
  • Zach Lavine, PG, Timberwolves ($5800)

_____________________________________________________

Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets

Game Analysis

This is what makes NBA DFS so tough in April. There’s a half dozen guys in danger of missing this game, and a lot of them are studs. Beverly  is done, while Howard and Jones may still be out for the Rockets, and Gay, Collison, and Boogie are all likely out for the Kings. Without any further knowledge here, it is tough to tell who will play and who will shine. If Boogie is in with no Donatas, Jones, or Howard, than he is a stud start. Josh Smith burned a lot of people the other night with a subpar game as one of the few healthy big men left. Thompson, McCallum, and McLemore would have to step up if the stars are indeed out again, and without more information, it is tough to handicap this one. This is a later start game too, so we may not have knowledge of any of this at tip off. The spread is pretty high, but there’s no total here due to all the uncertainty. This could be a bad game for the Kings, but I still like Houston’s players, with their bench being so short due to injuries.

Line: Houston -11

Players to Watch

  • James Harden, SG, Rockets ($11300)
  • Josh Smith, SF, Rockets ($6700)
  • Jason Thompson, PF, Kings ($3600)
  • Demarcus Cousins, C, Kings ($9700)<— If he plays

_____________________________________________________

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

Game Analysis

The Nuggets have lost five of their last seven. They have been playing fast and putting up a decent amount of points in most of those games. I would assume this is not going to be another one of those games against what has become one of the league’s best defenses. They have held all but three of their last ten opponents under 100 points. The highest scoring opponent during that stretch was this same Nuggets team three games back, though. Gordon Hayward missed that game, and is back today, but the Jazz may be without Derrick Favors again, who was healthy then.

Line: Jazz -4, O/U 194

Players to Watch

  • Gordon Hayward, SF, Jazz ($8000)
  • Trey Burke, PG, Jazz ($5600)
  • Wilson Chandler, SF, Nuggets ($6000)
  • JJ Hickson, PF, Nuggets ($3400)

_____________________________________________________

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers

Game Analysis

This is going to be the late game on the slate that causes the most movement up into the money. It is one of the highest over/unders of the night with a close spread. These two teams put up 467 points combined if you add the scores from each of their last 2 contests. Neither one has a lock down defense and both have some guys who can score. Both of these teams are very good. The Clippers winning streak stands at seven games, while the Blazers have four straight themselves. These teams have split both meetings this year, with the road team taking both games. With the Clips coming off a hard fought game with the Warriors last night, I think the Blazers are in a good position to take this one.

Line: Blazers -3, O/U 208

Players to Watch

  • Matt Barnes, SF, Clippers ($5400)
  • DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers ($8400)
  • LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Blazers ($9000)
  • Damian Lilliard, PG, Blazers ($7900)

_____________________________________________________

New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers

Game Analysis

The Pelicans are getting healthy and rounding into form. They have won two in a row by an average margin of 18 and have held both opponents to only 88 points. With the exception of a questionable Ryan Anderson, they are almost completely healthy, too. They play a Lakers squad today that is attempting to tank to hold on to it’s first round pick this year. The Lakers have only three wins in their last ten games. Two of them have been over Philly and the other was over Minnesota. The Pelicans are much better than those two opponents, and they have been losing to everyone else lately. Jeremy Lin missed the last game and is questionable again today. He had been playing well before he went down. Boozer is also questionable, but he has not been playing a ton lately anyway. The one guy who has been good and getting consistent minutes is Clarkson. He should be asked to pick up the slack if Lin is indeed out again. He had about 50 fantasy points in his last game, so he is definitely capable. Overall though, the spread is high and the total somewhat low. This is not a great target for fantasy purposes.

Line: Pelicans -7, O/U 195

Players to Watch

  • Anthony Davs, PF, Pelicans ($11200)
  • Tyreke Evans, PG, Pelicans ($7700)
  • Jordan Clarkson, PG, Lakers ($6000)
  • Wes Johnson, SF, Lakers ($4400)