The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.
Kings @ Celtics
The highest total and the closest spread of the three early games on DK tomorrow is a perfect place to look for fantasy goodness. Neither team has done a great job of stopping people lately and this could be a high pace high scoring affair. The Celtics may be playing this game without starting PF Jared Sullinger. If he can not go then I think Bass and Wright will soak up those extra minutes. What I think also happens though is Avery Bradley and Jeff Green assert themselves a little more on the offensive end to make up for it. Bradley is very cheap and Green gets Rudy Gay defense which scares nobody. I’m not sure there’s a direct way to play Sully being out, but either of the two replacements mentioned could be the key to unlocking that value. Bass would be my guess for the bigger role as Wright is recently acquired. I’m not sure which would get more run though, so good luck deciphering that enigma.
Line: Pick em, O/U 210
Players to Watch
- Demarcus Cousins, C, Kings ($11100)
- Rudy Gay, SF, Kings ($8700)
- Jeff Green, SF, Celtics ($6000)
- Avery Bradley, SG, Celtics ($4000)
It appears Sullinger will play today. Not sure if he will be restricted or not, but he makes for a good play if he is at full strength and takes punt options like Brandon Bass off the table. Also might click down Bradley and Green a tad. If you were Using Bass or Wright to soak up those minutes make sure you get them out of your line ups as the playing time will not be there for them.
Heat @ Pacers
This should be a low scoring game with minimal fantasy value. Both teams enjoy playing slow and when healthy both play solid defense. The Heat are healthier than they have been in a long time with Wade and Bosh both likely in. The only real concern left for the Heat is Shawne Williams and his value plummeted the minute Bosh was healthy anyway. They shuffled the line up last game and started Chalmers, Wade, Bosh, Deng, and Birdman. Interested to see how they move forward on this. The Pacers are finally healthy and their play is showing an improvement. West is back and now Hill, meaning only Paul George is missing from last years team. The Pacers have relied on a balanced approach as they get contributions from the entire roster to propel them to victories. I think they should be able to defend their home court, but I would not expect a high scoring affair. On such a small slate you may have to use a guy or two from this game, but do not go overboard as the other games are expected to be higher scoring.
Line: Pacers -4, O/U 188.5
Players to Watch
- Danny Granger, SF, Heat ($4000)
- Dwayne Wade, SG, Heat ($8800)
- David West, PF, Pacers ($6400)
- Lavoy Allen, C, Pacers ($4300)
Knicks @ Clippers
The Knicks on the road against the red hot and ultra talented Clippers squad just does not seem fair. The Knicks have caught the injury bug as well with Dalembert likely out, Amare out, and even Bargnani who was set to make his debut is doubtful. Shumpert is still out, JR is questionable, and Melo has been upgraded to probable from questionable but is still not 100%. Even at full strength I think the Clips are an 8 point favorite or better, so this could get ugly. The Clippers are all healthy and for fantasy purposes they are all expensive. In order to pay off against this Knicks team I think you need to see upwards of 35 minutes from these studs and if you believe the Vegas line and the reports, this should never be that close. On a short slate you have to take chances but if you needed a reason to fade this game I think I just made a good case for it.
Line: Clips -13, O/U 206
Players to Watch
- Cole Aldrich, C, Knicks ($5500)
- Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Knicks ($5500)
- Jamal Crawford, SG, Clippers ($4900)
- Chris Paul, PG, Clippers ($10600)