The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

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Pistons @ Magic

Game Analysis

The Pistons have been playing well since casting away their highest paid player last week. Drummond, Monroe, and even Brandon Jennings have all put up some 40+ point games since. The DvP match ups for the best players on both teams scream to exploit. If the O/U in this game was higher I would recommend using a bunch of them together, but as is I can only think that one or two of them go off and the rest fall short of value in a probably low scoring game. Many will be on Drummond as his match up screams take advantage, but his $9600 price gives me pause.

Line: Pistons -1 down from +2.5, O/U 195

Players to Watch

  • Brandon Jennings, PG, Pistons ($6800)
  • Greg Monroe, C, Pistons ($7300)
  • Tobias Harris, SF, Magic ($7300)
  • Victor Oladipo, SG, Magic ($5800)

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Cavaliers @ Hawks

Game Analysis

The Cavs are in a tough spot here. Varejao is out for the year and Lebron and Kyrie are both banged up. Lebron limped off the floor in the last game and Kyrie actually sat that one out. Kyrie looks like he is probable for tomorrow and James is still questionable, but even if he plays I doubt it is at 100%. The Hawks have been the Eastern Conferences biggest surprise so far this season. With a healthy team this season after the injury debacle which ravaged that locker room last year, they are quietly putting up one of the NBA’s best records and best winning streaks with victories in 9 of the last 11. Cleveland is barely .500 in it’s last 10 games and 5 of the last six have played to the under. The Hawks have also been under in 3 of their last 4 and I could see a lower scoring game with all the stars for Cleveland banged up.

Line: Hawks -4, O/U 203

Players to Watch

  • Al Horford, C, Hawks ($8100)
  • Paul Millsapp, PF, Hawks ($8400)
  • Dion Waiters, SG, Cavs ($4500)
  • Tristan Thompson, PF, Cavs ($5700)

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Nets @ Bulls

Game Analysis

Both teams played last night, yet I do not think it matters since both teams have been playing a lot of guys. The Nets have won four of their last five and scored over 100 points in all but one of those games. A healthy Nets team with a new rotation apparently has a ton of upside and has been playing to the over. Chicago has also been over in 4 of 6 and is averaging 109 points during that time period. The Nets have played much better basketball recently and I like them to keep this game closer then Vegas thinks. I also think due to the way these teams have been scoring and the pace which they have been playing that it could go to the over. It might be a sneaky place for fantasy points tomorrow as the large spread may scare some away.

Line: Bulls -11, O/U 196

Players to Watch

  • Mirza Teletovic, PF, Nets ($4300)
  • Deron Williams, PG, Nets ($6000)
  • Jimmy Butler, SG, Bulls ($8700)
  • Pau Gasol, PF, Bulls ($8900)

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Suns @ Pelicans

Game Analysis

So here is your game to target for fantasy goodness all around. a 211 O/U game with a -2 spread is gift wrapped for daily fantasy. Suns have won six straight by an average score of 111-99. The Pelicans have lost to some good teams by about the same score so it’s a very on point total by Vegas although I think the spread is kind of off. The Pelicans do play much better at home, but I think the Suns stay hot and the three guard attack proves to much to handle. I do expect a very hot pace in this one and that is why  think you would be crazy not to have a few guys from this one.

Line: Pelicans -2, O/U 211

Players to Watch

  • Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans ($11800)
  • Tyreke Evans, SG, Pelucans ($7700)
  • Alex Len, C, Suns ($5100)
  • Eric Bledsoe, SG, Suns ($9200)

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Spurs @ Grizzlies

Game Analysis

San Antonio is one of the few teams to beat Memphis on it’s home floor over the last season and a half, but I’m not sure they can do it tonight. It looks like the Spurs will be down two starters in Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard and the Grizz may be without star PF Zach Randolph as well. It takes a lot of the luster off this match up. Both teams have lost quite a few games recently which is definitely not what we expect from either of them. They have both struggled a little defensively and have seen the over hit in 3 of their last 5 each. The total is somewhat low based on recent performances and I would not be surprised to see it go over. Memphis has lost three home games in the last 10 days so I’m not sold on this home court advantage being as big as some expect recently. Without the stars I think Memphis wins this one, but it should stay close and play to the over, so definitely a usable spot for daily fantasy purposes.

Line: Memphis -2, O/U 194

Players to Watch

  • Manu Ginobili, SG, Spurs ($4900)
  • Tim Duncan, PF, Spurs ($9000)
  • Mike Conley, PG, Grizzlies ($7900)
  • Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies ($9500)

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Wizards @ Mavericks

Game Analysis

Washington has won 8 of their last 10 and only gone over in three of those. The Mavericks have also cooled off from the league leading scoring pace they were on and have gone under more often since Rondo came aboard. Both teams have been consistently reaching the triple digit mark, but the Wizards defense has been able to hold teams below while Dallas has not. Therefore I think the Wizards get the bigger bump and I would tick down the Mavs slightly in this one. The game should remain close and the O/U is pretty high so you can definitely look here for some fantasy relevant players tonight.

Line: Mavericks -5.5, O/U 206.5

Players to Watch

  • Rajon Rondo, PG, Mavericks ($7100)
  • Charlie Villanueva, PF, Mavericks ($4100)
  • Bradley Beal, SG, Wizrds ($6400)
  • Paul Pierce, SF, Wizards ($5400)

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Lakers @ Nuggets

Game Analysis

Anytime the Lakers play you should take a long look at the opponent and see where the fantasy goodness might come from. The Lakers regularly give up over 100 points and the Nuggets regularly score that many, so I have no doubt they reach that mark. Nuggets struggle to stop people and play at a high pace so I would not doubt the Lakers reach triple digits as well. Lakers really struggle to stop opposing PGs and the Nuggets usually are able to get beat inside. I’m not the Lakers have the personnel to give the Nuggets bigs fits, but I could see some nice games from a few guys here at decent prices. 214 is a lot of points to expect, so I can see this one being a bit of a shootout and some nice fantasy stat lines coming from it.

Line: Nuggets -6.5, O/U 214

Players to Watch

  • Kenneth Faried, PF, Nuggets ($6900)
  • Wilson Chandler, SF, Nuggets ($6500)
  • Jeremy Lin, PG, Lakers ($5000)
  • Wes Johnson, SF, Lakers ($5000)

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Timberwolves @ Jazz

Game Analysis

The Timberwolves have lost 8 in a row and have routinely seen totals in the 200s. The Jazz have won 4 of 6 and are playing down in the 180s/190s totals. I think this could be a game that stays towards the under despite the horrible defensive showings the Timberwolves have had recently. Utah has three big men all playing well right now and Minnesota got a scare when Gorgui Dieng went down with a rolled ankle last out. If he is not able to play I can only assume the Wolves will have to start Thad Young at Center and go small with guys like Budinger, Muhammad, and maybe even a booker at PF. I think Utah should be able to dominate the glass and score inside. Even if Dieng does play it should be a positive rebounding differential for the Jazz and that usually leads to victories.

Line: Jazz -7.5, O/U 202.5

Players to Watch

  • Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz ($4700)
  • Trey Burke, PG, Jazz ($5000)
  • Thad Yound, PF, Timberwolves ($6200)
  • Shabazz Muhammad, SF, Timberwolves ($6200)

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Raptors @ Trailblazers

Game Analysis

Toronto is back to playing fast and furious. They are averaging over 113 points per game and giving up over 100. They have really picked up the pace again recently. Portland has won 8 of their last 9 and while they continue to score over 100, they are playing lock down defense and limiting most opponents to under that amount. We got a few injury concerns and things that affect the analysis here. For starters, we know DeRozan and Lopez are out. The big mystery though is whether or not LaMarcus Aldridge will play. He has a really bad cold and labored breathing because of it from the reports I am reading. He went half speed in practice and is truely a game time call. Even if he does play I would assume it is not going to be at 100%. Definitely monitor the situation as the other Blazer starters all get a bump if he is out.

Line: Blazers -2.5 up from pick, O/U 207

Players to Watch

  • Wes Matthews, SG, Blazers ($6200)
  • Chris Kaman, C, Blazers ($4700)
  • Amir Johnson, PF, Raptors ($4700)
  • Kyle Lowry, PG, Raptors ($10500)

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76ers @ Warriors

Game Analysis

I don’t know what to think of this game. a spread of almost 20 screams blowout and risks a lot of guys not getting a full allotment of minutes, so I would shy away from the expensive guys here. I know most people do not like predicting blowouts, but this one might be an exception to the rule. If you think Philly keeps it close the PGs usually do well against the Warriors. Centers also tend to do OK with no Bogut, but I don’t really think the Sixers have one that can shine here. The Warriors should have no trouble scoring, but if they score too many points too quickly then it could mean bench time in the 4th quarter for the starters. I’m going to fade this game and expect guys to get less minutes as most PGs tend to do against the Sixers. If you feel like living on the edge then go ahead and roster them, but I prefer other games and other spots here to target.

Line: Warriors -17.5, O/U 208

Players to Watch

  • Robert Covington, PF, 76ers ($5700)
  • Tony Wroten, PG, 76ers ($4800)
  • Draymond Green, SF, Warriors ($7600)
  • Mo Speights, PF, Warriors ($5000)