The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines, and defense vs. position match ups.

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Lakers @ Hawks

Game Analysis

Lakers have played over in 7 of 10 with O/Us in the 205+ range. Hawks are 6-2-1 to the over in the first nine games with average O/U in the high 190 range. The pace uptick benefits the Hawks more, so that is where you should look in this one. The Lakers may provide some value as Coach Byron Scott said this week there is going to be some line up shuffling. If you get those right you could have some low owned gems. Nick “Swaggy P” Young is set to make his debut tonight, so that probably affects Wes Johnson and his minutes. Ed Davis has been playing well and Boozer has been disappointing, so maybe that is the switch that coach was talking about. Jordan Hill and Kobe have been the two best players, so they probably stay. Frankly I can not see what line up changes he is talking about, because they just do not have any other good players. The recent Laker’s game total points almost reached 250. The Hawks last game reached over 220, so it might not be pretty to watch, but we should see a lot of points scored here tonight. I’m only able to pick four guys per game, but the O/U opened 20 points higher then two of the other three games so you can roster anybody and everybody in this game with no arguments from me. The Lakers have the worst defense in the league, so the question is how many Hawks become too many to take?

Line: Hawks -10, O/U 212.5

Players to Watch

  • Jeff Teague, PG, Hawks ($7000)
  • Kyle Korver, SG, Hawks ($5700)
  • Nick Young, SG, Lakers ($3500)
  • Ed Davis, PF, Lakers ($4400)

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Knicks @ Bucks

Game Analysis

The Knicks have played over in 6 of 10, but the O/U have been low and they have not looked great on offense. Bucks have one of the worst scoring offenses in the league and have gone under in 8 of their last 10. This could be a very low scoring game as the Bucks have played some 4 quarter games recently with final scores that fail to reach the 3rd quarter scores from most  Golden State games. You may be able to find a good value play here tonight, but if it is that low scoring make sure to use guys whose fantasy scores are not totally point dependent. The one exception may be Carmelo. At a weak position on a small slate I’m not sure he makes value, but it’s going to be tough to make up ground against the raw amount of points he should be able to get if you fade him.

Line: Bucks -3, O/U 190

Players to Watch

  • Brandon Knight, PG, Bucks ($7500)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, SG, Bucks ($5200)
  • Carmelo Anthony, SF, Knicks ($9500)
  • Quincy Acy, PF, Knicks ($3100)

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Thunder @ Jazz

Game Analysis

This game is really tough to gauge for me. Utah is 6-3-1 to the over in their last 10 with average O/U of about 200. OKC has been playing under the spread most of this season and is coming off a 69-65 loss to the Houston Rockets in a game that was indeed the full 48 minutes of incredibly low scoring basketball. The O/U in this game is low and dropping, but I can not help but think that was a one game outlier against a very tough Rockets defense. I would not expect a high scoring game here either but I think we could see a few more points then Vegas expects. Again though I would not load up here on guys who are points dependent and the pace of this one will also be much slower then the Lakers/Hawks game with an O/U that is almost 25 points less.

Line: Jazz -4, O/U 187.5 down from 191.5

Players to Watch

  • Anthony Morrow, SG, Thunder ($4300)
  • Steven Adams, C, Thunder ($4800)
  • Gordon Hayward, SF, Jazz ($7700)
  • Derrick Favors, PF, Jazz ($7200)

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Pelicans @ Kings

Game Analysis

This will probably be the other game that is highly used tonight. Keep in mind New Orleans is on the tail end of a back to back and playing on the road. They have been good so far, but so has Sacramento. In the last 7 for each team they have only gone under twice apiece with O/U at or above today’s level. The last 10 games for both of these teams is littered with triple digit scores for and against them, so I expect a hot pace and high score in this one. I think the Lakers game has a risk of blow out to it with them being on the road, so this would be the preferred game to use players from if you are not going to go heavy in that Lakers/Hawks match up. Remember on a small sate there will be a lot of roster overlap so it might be beneficial to not go too chalky with your picks. Keep an eye out for late information about Rudy Gay’s status, because if he sits it will open up some serious value and give bumps to Collison and Boogie Cousins.

Line: Kings -2, O/U 200.5

Players to Watch

  • Darren Collison, PG, Kings ($6200)
  • Demarcus Cousins, C, Kings ($9900)
  • Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans ($11000)
  • Tyreke Evans, SF, Pelicans ($7200)