We’re through three games of the NBA Finals and there hasn’t been any lack of excitement. The teams have traded victories, while Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard have switched off being the leading scorers in each game. Now the Warriors and Raptors head into a pivotal Game 4.
Although Curry and Leonard have been the top two, we have to show love to everyone else. Over on the DK Sportsbook, you can bet the over/under on a number of players for Game 4.
NBA Game 4 Point Total Over/Unders– Stephen Curry: 33.5 points
– Kawhi Leonard: 30.5 points
– Pascal Siakam: 18.5 points
– Klay Thompson: 17.5 points
– Kyle Lowry: 15.5 points
– Draymond Green: 13.5 points
– Fred VanVleet: 11.5 points
– Marc Gasol: 9.5 points
– Andre Iguodala: 8.5 points
– Danny Green: 8.5 points
– Serge Ibaka: 7.5 points
Note: All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Throughout the entire NBA Playoffs, just three of these players have hit the over more than the under. Curry is 10-8 on the over, Leonard is 11-10 and Draymond Green is 11-6. Siakam, VanVleet and Iguodala are 50%, while everyone else stays under more often than not.
The averages throughout the previous playoff series aren’t nearly as relevant at this point, in my opinion. If you’re picking the over/under on any of these players, you should be looking at their NBA Finals stats. With that said, if Klay Thompson plays, which it’s looking like he will, you’d think he will hit the over on 17.5 points since he put up 21 in Game 1 and 25 in Game 2. While that’s a good thought, I have other guys I’m keeping my eye on.
Here are my two favorites for both the over and the under:
For The Over
This may seem like a layup, but Steph Curry is my top choice. A 47-point performance in Game 3 brought his O/U up from 31.5 to 33.5 for Game 4. This, along with the potential return of Klay Thompson, might normally be enough to push us away from Curry, but I think we’re seeing a new Finals Steph. The Warriors will undoubtedly feed the hot hand, and Klay’s presence could potentially free up more space for Curry. A 35-plus point performance from Steph in a series-tying home game for the Warriors? Count me in.
My second favorite is Toronto’s Fred VanVleet. Danny Green had the hot hand in Game 3, but VanVleet’s consistency is too promising to ignore. He’s averaging nearly 35 minutes, 14.3 points and 11 field goals (6 of which from beyond the arc). In a game that I expect the Warriors to be the aggressor, I think VanVleet will be a necessary piece that the Raptors rely on to keep pace. Three 3-pointers and 15 points seems very doable for the Toronto guard.
For The Under
The only player in this pool to not hit the over once throughout the entire NBA Playoffs is Serge Ibaka, and I don’t see any reason for that to change in Game 4. His O/U is at 7.5 points, yet he’s averaging six points per game in the NBA Finals. Ibaka had a solid Game 3 with five rebounds and six blocks, but Marc Gasol has been the key big man for the Raptors in this series. It won’t be surprising to see Serge play less than 20 minutes scoring only six points.
Kyle Lowry is a crucial piece to this Toronto squad, but I wouldn’t take him scoring more than 15 points in Game 4. Lowry had himself a great night in Game 3, dropping 23 points with 9 assists. But this came in a game where the Raptors were firing on all cylinders, which will be difficult to repeat against the two-time defending champions. In Game 1, Lowry scored 7 points and just 13 in Game 2. I could see Lowry racking up the assists again, but only contributing 12 points of his own.
No matter who plays, it’ll be exciting to see who Drake decides to troll.
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