The Warriors emerged victorious in a wild Game 2 in Toronto, and now the series shifts to The Bay squared away at a game a piece. In a crucial Game 3, Toronto will look to re-take home court advantage, while the Warriors attempt to hold serve. Here’s a breakdown of both teams entering Game 3’s Showdown contest.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS
— The Warriors have won 25 of their past 28 games at Oracle Arena.
— The Raptors have covered the spread in 21 of their past 28 games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
— Each of the Warriors’ past seven home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone under the total points line.
— The underdogs have won the second half in each of the past 10 games between the Raptors and Warriors.
— Stephen Curry has scored 33-plus in six out of his past seven outings.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
The Raptors got a lot of valuable production from role players at home, but more weight may fall on the shoulders of Kawhi Leonard ($11,800) on the road. While Kawhi was managed well during the regular season, he’s been playing heavy minutes in the postseason, and it may’ve caught up to him offensively. Leonard’s shooting just 13-for-34 from the field in the series, and 5-of-15 from deep. Almost half of Kawhi’s points in the series have come from the free-throw line, where he’s 26-for-28. Going perfect from the line on 16 attempts, while ripping down 14 boards helped Leonard to 60 DKFP in Game 2. But he’s going to have to pick up the slack offensively if he wants to keep his team in Game 3.
After a couple of spectacular performances against the Warriors in the regular season (50 DKFP per game) Kyle Lowry’s ($7,600) only averaging 24.5 DKFP in the NBA Finals. Lowry’s also shot poorly, a combined 6-for-20 from the field, and has been in foul trouble the entire series — he had five in Game 1 and fouled out of Game 2 in just 28 minutes. It’s really amazing that the Raptors even had a chance to go up 2-0 in the series with the play they’ve gotten from Lowry, but the majority of their success has been generated on the defensive end. Lowry did have some good road games in the Eastern Conference Finals, and has a good history against the Warriors in the regular season, so this could be a buy-low spot.
One of the major reasons the Raptors are where they are is Pascal Siakam ($9,400). I mentioned Toronto’s success stems from defense, which also leads to Siakam’s success in transition. The Raptors should try to duplicate what they were able to accomplish in Game 1 on the defensive end, which led to 14-of-17 shooting and 55.5 DKFP from Siakam. After reverting to 29.5 DKFP in Game 2, Siakam should be a boom-or-bust play to pay up for in Game 3.
Marc Gasol ($6,600) is an intriguing Game 3 option. Kevon Looney (collarbone) has been ruled out indefinitely, which could force the Warriors to play with more size at center. For matchup purposes, that could mean less Serge Ibaka ($4,000), who’s averaging less than 17 minutes per game in the Finals, and more Gasol. The former Memphis star had a terrible Game 2, but did play 30-plus minutes for the second time in the series. I think Gasol makes more sense in Golden State, while Ibaka’s an easy fade.
It has to be about time to fade Fred VanVleet ($6,200). This guy was $1,600 in the Game 4 Showdown against Milwaukee, and has shot lights out since to skyrocket his salary. While his play’s been admirable, this price point is out of control for VanVleet, who still put up back-to-back games of just 19 DKFP prior to his Game 2 outburst.
Danny Green ($3,600) makes more sense to me to roster than VanVleet at almost half the cost. Green’s finally found his stroke from downtown, hitting 5-of-12 in the Finals. I generally don’t like to roster cheap role players on the road, but Green has plenty of NBA Finals experience under his belt.
Norman Powell ($2,400) has been a solid punt play in this series and scored 13.25 DKFP in 21 minutes in Game 2. He’s as cheap as I’d go on the Raptors’ side in this game.
Patrick McCaw ($1,000) did play in Game 1 of the series, but those minutes went to Powell in Game 2. Even at just $1,000, I’d find a way to get to Powell, with McCaw unlikely to see minutes.
The Warriors’ injury report got even more complicated ahead of Game 3. I mentioned Looney has been ruled out and Kevin Durant (calf) — who’s still potentially on the verge of returning — will remain out, but Klay Thompson ($8,400) carries a questionable tag after straining his hamstring late in Game 2. Thompson was hot in Game 2, posting a 25-5-5 line on 10-of-17 shooting, but he’ll likely be playing hurt if he’s on the floor in Game 3, making it tough to justify rostering him, other than as a contrarian GPP play.
This all sets up for a potential monster game from Stephen Curry ($11,600), who had some clear issues in Game 2. While Curry played 41 minutes, he shot just 6-for-17, and didn’t attempt a shot in the fourth quarter — even with Thompson out of the game and his team on a five-minute scoring drought. Reports indicated Curry may’ve been sick for Game 2, but the extra off day leaves him in prime position for a bounce-back. If Thompson does wind up out of this game, Curry’s the obvious top pick on the slate. But even with Klay limited, and KD still out, this is the game for Curry to assert his dominance at home.
While Curry’s been carrying the scoring load without Durant, it’s been Draymond Green ($10,600) taking care of practically everything else. Draymond had triple-doubles in three straight games, and missed it by one assist in Game 2 — his 17-10-9 line was good for 48 DKFP. With 41 or more DKFP in six straight (and a pair of 60-plus DKFP games), Draymond will continue to be an elite play until we see KD return.
DeMarcus Cousins ($7,200) stepped up in a major way in Game 2. The Warriors didn’t want to rely on him so much, playing him just eight minutes in Game 1, but with Looney out Boogie went 28 minutes in Game 2. Cousins had 37 DKFP, and there’s no reason to think he won’t have a similar role in Game 3 and he makes for pretty strong value at $7,200.
Andre Iguodala ($5,600), while he appears hobbled, finds ways to get the job done. He’s had modest stat lines, but with KD out and Klay potentially limited, his minutes on the perimeter are necessary (28.5 per game). Averaging 7.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists and a block per game, Iggy’s NBA Finals success continues, and that translates to his Game 3 fantasy value.
Quinn Cook ($3,200) would likely be the biggest beneficiary if Thompson were ruled out. With his salary nearly doubled heading into Game 3, we can’t rely on Cook if the Warriors have a full roster. The only way you should consider Cook is with Klay ruled out.
Shaun Livingston ($2,800) makes for much more reasonable value than Cook. Playing about 17 minutes per game, Livingston comes with a more guaranteed role, and should be in the 10-15 DKFP range. That said, there’s also not as much upside here.
Andrew Bogut ($2,200) is now inserted into the rotation in place of Looney. While he scored 7.25 DKFP in seven minutes in Game 2, he could be worth a punt play in GPPs. Playing behind Cousins could always mean extra minutes, and the Warriors trust Bogut thanks to all his experience on past championship teams.
Jordan Bell ($1,600) saw 12 minutes in Game 1, but was surprisingly out of the Game 2 rotation, even after Looney went down. There’s a chance Bell could be reinserted into the rotation, and carries more upside than Bogut.
Alfonso McKinnie ($2,000) and Jonas Jerebko ($1,400) are the last two players in the rotation. McKinnie’s played solid minutes in the postseason, but has seen them cut heavily in the NBA Finals. He has some upside as a cheap play, but Jerebko doesn’t quite have the same ability. McKinnie’s as cheap of a play as I’d roster on Golden State.
THE OUTCOMEWhile the Raptors may’ve been the better team overall in this 1-1 series, it’s been remarkable they’ve gotten this much production with Leonard and Lowry shooting so poorly. They’ll need to get a lot more production to hang with the Warriors on the road, even if the Dubs are banged up. In the end, I think Curry ($17,400 CP) should be able to revert to MVP form for a game here, carrying his team when it needs him most and serving as the top Captain’s pick. It may be another grind like we saw at times in Game 2, but I like the defending champs to prevail at home.
Final Score: Toronto 102, Golden State 109
Favorite Prop Bet
Total Points + Rebounds + Assists: Draymond Green OVER 31.5 (-110):I mentioned the streak Draymond is on, and until Durant returns, I expect him to continue on this path. While +250 to record a triple-double is enticing, it’s much more likely Green finds his way to this total. The Warriors rely on Green’s diverse skillset with their thinning rotation, and Toronto’s had difficulty defending him at times.
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