The Raptors pulled out a big win in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and will try to emerge victorious again Sunday to maintain home-court advantage over the Warriors. With Game 2 brings another opportunity to play the Showdown contest, so let’s break down both sides and discuss how things might play out.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS
— The Raptors have won each of their past 11 games against Pacific Division opponents.
— The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their past five games.
— The Raptors win 78.8 % of games at Scotiabank Arena.
— Each of the Warriors’ past five Sunday games as road underdogs have gone under the total points line.
— The underdogs have won the second half in each of the past nine games between the Warriors and Raptors.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Maybe the most impressive part of the Raptors’ Game 1 win was that Kawhi Leonard ($11,800) didn’t even have to dominate. He was only 5-for-14 from the field, although he did score 23 points on the strength of hitting 10 of his 12 free-throw attempts. If anything, that performance showed just how high his floor is based on his massive usage rate.
With Leonard struggling with his shot, it was Pascal Siakam ($9,800) who led the way for the Raptors offense, scoring 32 points. He also chipped in eight rebounds, five assists, two blocks and a steal, leaving him with a whopping 55.5 DKFP. It’s hard to envision him scoring that many points again, but he still figures to be one of the better options for Toronto. Kyle Lowry ($7,600) had a huge impact on Game 1 despite only scoring seven points. He did chip in six rebounds, nine assists and a steal, but his lack of scoring left him with only 29 DKFP. With the amount of energy that he is going to need to use on defense in this series, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him struggle offensively from time to time, making him a somewhat risky option.
The Raptors received a huge boost from their supporting cast, which included Marc Gasol ($7,000). He’s now scored at least 37.3 DKFP in three of his past four games at home, making him a viable mid-tier option to target for Game 2. Fred VanVleet ($5,800) provided a crucial 15 points off the bench, but his limited contributions in other areas left him with only 19.3 DKFP. His price has climbed to the point where it might be best to pass on him despite the scoring punch he provides for the Raptors’ second unit. Another important contributor in their victory was Danny Green ($5,000), who hit three three-pointers on his way to 22.5 DKFP. However, he was in a massive shooting slump coming into that game and has seen his price increase significantly, making him an awfully risky option.
It’s hard to get excited about any of the other players on the Raptors. Serge Ibaka ($4,200) only scored 11.3 DKFP across 17 minutes and should continue to see limited playing time with Siakam and Gasol playing well. Normal Powell ($2,800) had a few big games in the previous series against the Bucks, but he only logged five minutes Thursday. Patrick McCaw ($1,200) did make his first appearance since the Sixers series, although he only logged seven minutes.
Even though the Warriors couldn’t pull out the road win, Stephen Curry ($11,600) did his part by scoring 34 points. With Kevin Durant (calf) out, Curry has now scored at least 33 points in six straight games. He’s right up there with Leonard in terms of the players with the highest floors.
There might not have been a quieter triple-double than the one that Draymond Green ($10,400) recorded in Game 1. That might have been because he couldn’t slow down Siakam on the defensive end, but it still meant that Green had recorded a triple-double for the third straight game. Look for him to reassert himself on the defensive end while also providing excellent all-around production once again. Klay Thompson ($8,400) had another fine offensive showing with 21 points, but he finished with just 29.3 DKFP due to his lack of contributions in other areas. He’s scored 33 DKFP or less in three of the past four games despite Durant being out, so it might be wise to avoid him at this price.
There is a huge drop off between the top three Warriors and everyone else on the team. Kevon Looney ($6,200) is the next most expensive and seems like an obvious fade at this price, especially with DeMarcus Cousins ($5,400) back in the fold. Cousins made some excellent passes in his return to action, but he only logged eight minutes and should continue to receive limited playing time as he works his way back from injury. Andre Iguodala ($4,600) suffered a calf injury in Game 1, making him a very risky option despite the fact that he’s expected to try and play.
Editor’s Note: Iguodala will start in tonight’s Game 2.
The rest of the players on the Warriors are nothing more than dart throws in tournament play. Shaun Livingston ($3,200) is the most intriguing since he could see added playing time if Iguodala can’t handle his normal allotment of minutes. Jordan Bell ($2,000) actually started Game 1, but he was torched on defense and only ended up playing 12 minutes.
THE OUTCOMEIf the Raptors are going to win this series, they have to maintain home court advantage and take advantage of however long Durant is out. They know that, so I think they find a way to get another win in Game 2. With regards to the Captain’s Pick, Curry ($17,400 CP) is my top choice. If you’re looking for a more well-balanced lineup, taking a chance on Gasol ($10,500 CP) could be the best route to take.
Final Score: Raptors 115, Warriors 112
Favorite Prop Bet
Stephen Curry, Most Points Scored (-134)The only real threat to Curry for most points scored in this game is Leonard. However, even with his stellar play, Leonard has scored 27 points or less in three of his past four games. Meanwhile, Curry has averaged 35.5 points over his past six games.
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