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Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Clippers vs. Timberwolves- The total in this one is 212 with a spread of 5.5. Chris Paul will get most of the work, as he has a usage rate of 30% and is averaging over 40 DKFPPG. For the Wolves it will be all Karl-Anthony Towns running the show. Towns has a usage rate of 26% and is averaging about 45 DKFPPG.
LOW O/U – Hawks vs. Raptors- This is one of the lowest totals on the night at 200 with a 2 point spread. I think Paul Millsap will use his 25% usage rate to produce about 35 DKFP for the Hawks. The Raptors will rely on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (per usual) to produce most of the scoring. Both guys see a 25% usage rate, and I have them both projected well over 35 DKFP tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
|New Orleans||100.50||San Antonio||96.80||98.65|
HIGH PACE – Wizards vs. Kings- The projected game pace in this one is 102.70. This is a perfect game for John Wall as he loves a quick paced matchup. He has a usage rate over 30% and is one of the best options to produce a 50+ outing. The Kings will welcome DeMarcus Cousins back with open arms, as he missed the last game. He has an insane usage rate over 35% and will look to rival Walls performance tonight.
LOW PACE – Knicks vs. Mavericks – The projected pace in this one is 98.35 and is the slowest on the night. I love Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis tonight. Both guys have a usage rate over 25% and should produce 40+ DKFP each tonight. The Mavs present some good value on the night, and I like Raymond Felton a lot. He has been seeing over 30 MPG and has produced well in those minutes lately. Roll him out as a tournament flier tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Dragic has a usage rate of 25% and is playing over 35 MPG. I love where he comes in tonight, and I have him projected at 35 DKFP. I think he could exceed this total and end up putting up about 40 DKFP, which would greatly exceed his 29.0 DKFP season average.
WORST – D’Angelo Russell (LAL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Russell has had a nice usage rate of over 22% and is seeing 30+ MPG. However, against a tough Miami defense, I think he comes in well under value tonight. There are better options.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Khris Middleton (MIL) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Middleton has a usage rate of 20% and is averaging 32.6 DKFPPG. He is in a great spot tonight, and I have him projected at about 35 DKFP. He is my favorite SG play on the night.
WORST – Luke Babbitt (SF) (MEM) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Luke has been seeing a lot of court time due to the Pelicans injuries, but his 15% usage rate makes him extremely inconsistent. He will be tough to trust tonight against a smothering Spurs defense.
|Player Targets||More NBA Research||Cheat Sheet|
|Levitan's Leverage||Game Breakdowns||Tournament Plays|
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Joe Johnson (MIA) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. Yes, the Lakers are terrible, but so is Old Man Joe. Joe has a usage rate of 15% and is only averaging about 24 DKFPPG. Until he comes of off his cold streak, I am staying away.
WORST – Dante Cunningham (NOR) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Dante is seeing about 30 MPG now that Anthony Davis is sidelined. Even with the increased minutes, Dante only has a usage rate of about 10% and is a stretch to score any points. His matchup and lack of production is just too tough for me to get behind tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Markieff Morris (WAS) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Morris has found a home in Washington and a usage rate of about 21%. He is seeing about 30 MPG, and he has averaged 25.8 DKFP over his last 4 games. I love this spot for Markieff tonight, I will definitely have plenty of tournament exposure.
WORST – Draymond Green (GSW) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Draymond has a usage rate of about 17% and is averaging 40 DKFPPG. He is an all-around player that can fill up a stat sheet. However, due to matchup and price I will only have low exposure in tournaments.
BEST – Tim Duncan (SAS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans- The Pelicans are ranked 29th against opposing centers, and Duncan is coming off of a few days rest. He has a usage rate of 14% and is only seeing about 25 MPG. I think this game will get out of hand quickly and Duncan will see a lot of bench time.
WORST – Andrew Bogut (SAS) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing centers. Bogut sees a usage rate of about 10% and struggles to get involved in the offense. I have him projected at 20 DKFP tonight and feel like there are a lot better options.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
John Wall ($10,000)- Wall against the Kings… Yes, please. He has a usage rate of 27% and is seeing over 35 MPG. I have him projected at 50 DKFP tonight, and I think he could easily exceed the mark.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Alexis Ajinca ($3,500) – Ajinca has been playing well for the Pelicans. With Anthony Davis sidelined, he has seen his usage rate shoot up to 25%. He is seeing over 25 MPG and should easily reach value tonight. I love him as a tournament play, but I could even see rolling him out as a cash play this evening.
Dud of the Night
Klay Thompson ($7,000) – Thompson is coming off of a letdown game against Washington and has a tough matchup tonight. He has a usage rate of 26% and sees about 35 MPG. I hate how shot dependent he is and usually stay away for this very reason.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points