Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Wizards vs. Warriors- The total in this game is 227 with a spread of 13. I look for this game to stay close until the 4th quarter, which means our Warrior stars are in play. The Wizards will rely on John Wall to keep this one close. Wall is seeing 35+ mpg and has a usage rate of 27%. He has been a lock for 40+ DKFPPG and should see closer to 45 DKFP tonight. The Warriors will rely on the Chef aka Steph Curry to keep their win total rolling. Curry didn’t quite reach value with only 42 DKFP last game, but even a subpar game from him is still fairly efficient. Curry boasts a usage rate of 37% and should see a ton of minutes tonight against a Wizards team fighting for their playoff lives. The Chef should be cooking burgers tonight, 50 burgers that is.
LOW O/U – Bulls vs. Pacers- The total in this game is 203 with a spread of 7. We are in must win territory for the Bulls as they are 2.5 games out of the playoffs. The Bulls will hope that Gasol can overcome his ankle tweak and get back to putting up 50 DKFP games. He put up 42 DKFP the last game, so he looks like he ‘s getting closer to his former self quickly. He should see his full gambit of minutes (35 per game) and has a usage rate of 22% on the year. I think he puts up 40+ fantasy points tonight. For the Pacers, it will be as it has been all year… the Paul George show. George has a usage rate of 30% and a great matchup. I have him projected at 45 DKFP tonight, but wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeded this total.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Hornets vs. 76ers- This is the third fastest game on the night with a projected game pace of 100.7. The Hornets have been a two man show of Kemba Walker and Nic Batum all season long. Walker has the better matchup tonight and has a usage rate of 26%. He should easily find his way to 35+ DKFP on the evening. The 76ers are young, injured and really only have one above average player. Ish Smith has been carrying the offensive load, putting up a 50 and a 46 DKFP performance in the last two games. With all the injuries still plaguing the 76ers, Ish should see a usage rate of about 30% and I have him projected at 35+ DKFP tonight.
LOW PACE – Nets vs. Magic- The slowest paced game on the night is a projected total of 99. The Nets have been all about Brook Lopez, who underwhelmed last night. Lopez will be looking to potentially make amends against a Vucevic-less Magic tonight (Vucevic is questionable to play) and should take advantage of his 32% usage rate to put up 40+ DKFP. The Magic have been hit or miss, but Victor Oladipo is back from injury and in a good spot. He has a usage rate of 21% and is seeing over 30 mpg. I have him projected at 35 DKFP and think he should reach the mark tonight.
Note: Injury list below is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to follow news and notes throughout the day for the latest injury updates.
|Probable||Victor Oladipo (ORL), Bradley Beal (WAS), Iman Shumpert (CLE), Markieff Morris (WAS)|
|Questionable||Alan Anderson (WAS), E'Twaun Moore (CHI), Jeremy Lin (CHA)|
|Out||LeBron James (CLE), Brandon Rush (GSW), Andre Iguodala (GSW), Richaun Holmes (PHI), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Thaddeus Young (BKN), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN), Jeremy Lin (CHA), Serge Ibaka (OKC), Kevin Durant (OKC), Nerlens Noel (PHI), Jerami Grant (PHI)|
Editor’s Note (6:10 PM ET): Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka are both OUT tonight for the Thunder. The Durant news is huge and while there is going to be a crowding out effect that should benefit the likes of Kyle Singler and Dion Waiters (both will start), Russell Westbrook may benefit most. Last season when Durant was injured, Westbrook had a 40.4 percent usage rate. This season with Durant healthy, it’s been just 31.5 percent.
Editor’s Note (6:10 PM ET): Jeremy Lin will not play tonight. This adds value to Nicolas Batum and Kemba Walker as they’ll carry the vast majority of the minutes in the Hornets backcourt tonight. Lin has been playing about 25 minutes per game in March and if you’re looking to take a flier on a tournament punt play, Jeremy Lamb has a pair of 20-25 fantasy point performances in his last four games (despite limited minutes played). He has also averaged over 22 DK FPPG with Lin sidelined this year. Courtney Lee ($3,700) is also an option as he’s been seeing big minutes and scoring consistently between 20 and 30 DK points in recent games.
Editor’s Note (6:20 PM ET): Thaddeus Young is OUT for Brooklyn on Tuesday night. Thomas Robinson is an intriguing play at just $3,000 as he had over 50 DraftKings points the last time Young was rested.
|Player Targets||Tuesday NBA Research||Cheat Sheet|
|Game Breakdowns||Click For More||Tournament Plays|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. Philadelphia 76ers-The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Kemba is averaging over 35 DKFPPG and has a usage rate of 26% for the Hornets. He is usually inconsistent away from home court, but should be a lock for a nice performance tonight. I love him in cash and if the 76ers can somehow keep the game close he makes for a great tournament play as well.
“His inconsistency has plagued DK players all season long…”
WORST – Derrick Rose (CHI) vs. Indiana Pacers- The Pacers are ranked 10th against opposing PGs. Rose and the Bulls are in must win territory. Rose is seeing over 30 mpg and has a usage rate of 27%. His inconsistency has plagued DK players all season long, I have him projected at about 25 DKFP tonight and feel like there are better options.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – JR Smith (CLE) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 24th against opposing SGs. The Rockets play no defense at all. Smith is one of those guys that can get hot with the right matchup. He has a usage rate of 18% and is seeing 30+ mpg. I definitely don’t want Smith in cash games, but he does make for a contrarian tournament play on the night.
WORST – Andre Roberson (OKC) vs. Detroit Pistons- The Pistons are ranked 7th against opposing SGs. Roberson has a usage rate of 9% and is basically a no play on any given night. He’s rarely involved in an Oklahoma City offense dominated by Durant and Westbrook.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Richard Jefferson (CLE) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. With Lebron James out tonight, Richard Jefferson should get the start. When he is on court Jefferson has a usage rate of 11% and should come in at about 20 DKFP tonight. With the King out I like Kyrie, Kevin, and JR a lot better than Jefferson.
WORST – Trevor Ariza (HOU) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 4th against opposing SFs. However, this ranking comes from Lebron James being on court. James is out tonight and Ariza’s 15% usage rate may teeter around 18% on the evening, given the slightly better matchup projection. I think he could make for a decent tournament play as I have him projected at 30 DKFP tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Kevin Love (CLE) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. With Lebron out tonight, Love is probably my favorite play. Love carries about a 29% usage rate with the King sitting and plays about 35 mpg. I think he is looking at a 40 DKFP game tonight and could even surprise us all with 50. I love him as a tournament play tonight (but so will everyone else).
WORST – Donatas Motiejunas (HOU) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Motiejunas has a rather high usage rate of 19%, while only averaging about 20 mpg. I just don’t see Motiejunas as being in play tonight with so many other great options.
BEST – Cody Zeller (CHA) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Zeller has been splitting time with Al Jefferson and is basically seeing 20 mpg. He has a usage rate of 13%, but is in a great spot tonight. We all saw what Mason Plumlee did to the decimated 76ers, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Zeller do the same thing. FIre him in a tournament for sheer upside.
WORST – Dwight Howard (HOU) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. Howard has a usage rate of 18% and is averaging about 30 DKFPPG. I think he comes in right around his average tonight and have him projected at 28 DKFP.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Stephen Curry ($10,500)- The Chef easily has one of the best matchups on the night. With a usage rate of 37% and the ability to shoot from outside of the arena, I love Steph tonight. I have him projected at 55 DKFP on the evening, but wouldn’t be surprised if he put on a show after Klay’s 40 point performance the other night.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
JR Smith ($4,400) – I know I referred to him earlier in the article, but Smith is about as good as it gets for value tonight. With LeBron out he should see his usage rate jump. Iman Shumpert is questionable which means we could see even more run for Smith. I love his price and I think he sees 30+ DKFP tonight.
Dud of the Night
Robert Covington ($6,000) – Bob Cov has been a nice value over the last 3 games. However, tonight he should be guarded by Nic Batum. This worries me about his overall production. I like his 20% usage rate, but I worry it won’t be enough to help us hit value. I think there are better tournament plays tonight.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points