Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Celtics vs. Suns- The total in this game is 216 with a spread of 8.5. The Celtics will ride their king of usage, Isaiah Thomas. Thomas has been averaging 35 DKFP over the course of this season. I think he goes higher than 35 tonight and scores closer to the 40-45 DK point range. For Phoenix it will be Brandon Knight or Alex Len. Knight is questionable, but if he plays should see about 35 DKFP. Len is in a nice spot to put up 35 DKFP with Tyson Chandler out.
LOW O/U – Jazz vs. Timberwolves- This is the lowest total on the night at 196.5 with a spread of 6.5. The Jazz will unleash Shelvin Mack and Derrick Favors tonight. Mack is seeing a usage rate of about 24% compared to Favors 25%, both guys should see 30+ DKFP tonight. The Wolves will hope that Zach Lavine can stay hot after his 37 DKFP performance last night.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – 76ers vs. Trailblazers- This is the 2nd fastest game on the evening with a projected game pace of 100.2. I love the value in this game tonight. The 76ers will ride Ish Smith’s 28% usage rate and hope that he can put up 35+ DKFP tonight. Damian Lillard will carry the Blazers and is the best chance at 50 DK points tonight.
LOW PACE – Cavaliers vs. Knicks- WIth the Jazz obviously coming in at the slowest game, this game is a close 2nd with a projected game pace of 93. Obviously King Lebron James and his 32% usage rate is in play if he doesn’t get rested. The Knicks will look to the combo of Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis for scoring. Carmelo has a usage rate of 29% and should see about 40 DKFP on the evening.
Note: Be sure to follow the latest injury news throughout the day for updates to the statuses below.
|Probable||Marcus Morris (DET), Gorgui Dieng (MIN)|
|Questionable||Avery Bradley (BOS), Pau Gasol (CHI), Mo Williams (CLE), Paul George (IND), Jrue Holiday (NO), Victor Oladipo (ORL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Brandon Knight (PHX), Terrence Ross (TOR)|
|Doubtful||Kyle Singler (OKC), Nerlens Noel (PHI), Tyson Chandler (PHX)|
|Out||Jae Crowder (BOS), E'Twaun Moore (CHI), Kyrie Irving (CLE), Kawhi Leonard (SA), LaMarcus Aldridge (SA), Manu Ginobili (SA), Tim Duncan (SA), Tony Parker (SA), Ryan Anderson (NO), Norris Cole (NO), Anthony Davis (NO), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Meyers Leonard (POR)|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. Phoenix Suns-The Suns are ranked 29th against opposing PGs. Thomas has had a great season and is seeing a usage rate of 31%. He has put up 48, 44 and 36 DKFP over the last three games. I have him projected at 40+ DKFP tonight and I definitely feel like he can exceed this total. There may be a little room for a revenge narrative as well.
WORST – Brandon Knight (PHO) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. Knight didn’t suit up against the Kings last night and is questionable tonight. If he plays he has seen a usage rate of 26% and is averaging over 30 DKFP. If he does give it a go, he makes a great cash game play just based on the volume of shots and opportunities he sees on a bad Suns team.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Avery Bradley (BOS) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Bradley has a usage rate of 18% and sees about 35 mpg. Bradley has always been an up and down scorer, but should come in at about 30 DKFP tonight. The caveat here is that he is also questionable so definitely follow his status throughout the day.
WORST – Andre Roberson (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. The Spurs will be missing every key player tonight, but this won’t help Roberson. Roberson is one of the only guys on this list to carry a single digit usage rate (9%). This means stay away tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Al-Farouq Aminu (POR) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 29th against opposing SFs. Aminu can get loose and put up a nice performance here and there. He has a usage rate of 15% and plays about 30 mpg. I like his price tonight and I feel like he should easily hit value.
WORST – Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Durant is an elite SF and I still have him projected around 45 DKFP tonight. My only concern in this game is an impending blowout. Durant has a usage rate of 31%, but if this one gets out of hand he could find himself sitting the 4th quarter. He will always put up a decent score but his ceiling might be lower than usual tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Maurice Harkless (SF) (POR) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing PFs. With Meyers Leonard sidelined, Harkless has been seeing time at the PF spot. Harkless is seeing a usage rate of 15% and about 25+ mpg. I think he could make for a sneaky value play tonight and could come in around 25 DKFP.
WORST – Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Kristaps seems to have gotten his legs back and has put up some nice performances. Porzingis has a usage rate of 25% and he has been seeing 30 mpg. The last time he played the Cavs he put up 52 DKFP. I’ll take my chances on Porzingis tonight.
BEST – Mason Plumlee (POR) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. I have been all about the Plumlee lately and will continue to be. Plumlee has crushed value with Meyers Leonard out. He has a usage rate of 16% and has averaged 30 DKFP over the last 4 games. I think he comes in at about 30 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Robin Lopez (NYK) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavaliers are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. RoLo has been great during the month of March. Coming off of an 18 DKFP performance (after a 54 and 41 DKFP performance) he will be looking for a nice performance. I am not opposed to rolling him out in a tournament as his 18% usage rate could mean 30+ DKFP tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Damian Lillard (9,300)- On a night with Russell Westbrook on the docket, it is weird to see me paying up for someone else. Lillard has a great matchup tonight against Philadelphia and has a usage rate of 31%. He had a rough outing against the Clippers with only 35 DKFP. Tonight is a great night for him to get back on track and throw up a 50 burger.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
David West (3,300) – With everybody out for the Spurs, West is basically next man up. West has produced when given minutes this season. He will have a usage rate of about 21% and should see 30+ minutes tonight. I have him projected at 30 DKFP tonight and I feel like he should easily exceed value.
Dud of the Night
Andrew Wiggins (6,100) – Wiggins has had two subpar performances where he has missed value. He gets a tough matchup against Utah tonight. Wiggins has a usage rate of 25% and is seeing a lot of minutes on the court, but this matchup has proved tough for even the best SGs (except James Harden). I have him projected at 28 DKFP and think this is about all he will get tonight.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points