Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Mavericks vs. Warriors- The total in this game is 225 with a spread of 14. The Mavericks continue to ride Dirk, who has a usage rate of 26% and is seeing over 35 MPG. He hasn’t shown too many signs of aging this year and he’ll need to be big in this game to keep it close against the NBA’s best team. The Warriors will look to the big 3 of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green for scoring. Of the three, Curry is my favorite play tonight. He has a usage rate of 32%, and I have him projected at 55 DKFP tonight.
LOW O/U – Bucks vs. Hawks- This is the lowest total on the night at 203 with a spread of 9. The Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be back in action tonight. With a usage rate of 24% and now playing mostly PG, Giannis has been a lock for 40 DKFP per night recently. The Hawks have been more difficult to peg for fantasy purposes, but I think both Al Horford and Paul Millsap are in play. The two big men are seeing usage rates of over 20% and I have both projected right around 40 DKFP each tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Suns vs. Kings- This is a dream game for daily fantasy purposes. With the fastest projected pace on the night at 102.6, this game will be blazing and will feature plenty of opportunities for fantasy points to be scored. For the Suns, I love Brandon Knight, Devin Booker and Jon Leuer. All three guys scored 44+ DKFP Wednesday against the Lakers and they should see the same usage rate of around 20% each tonight. For the Kings, it will be all about DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has one of the highest usage rates in the league and is nearly a lock for 50+ DKFP on a nightly basis. Don’t overthink it.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Spurs- This is the slowest projected game on the board tonight at an average pace of 97.2. With Zach Randolph questionable, it should be Matt Barnes carrying the load. Barnes has averaged approximately 30 DKFP with Randolph out and he should hit this mark again tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge will carry the load for the Spurs and should see a usage rate of about 30% tonight. I have him projected at 40 DKFP on the evening.
Note: Be sure to follow injury news throughout the day for the latest updates.
|Probable||Marvin Williams (CHA), Jusuf Nurkic (DEN), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET), Reggie Bullock (DET), Gorgui Dieng (MIN), DeMarcus Cousins (SAC), Rajon Rondo (SAC), Bradley Beal (WAS), Kyle Lowry (TOR), Kobe Bryant (LAL)|
|Questionable||Kenneth Faried (DEN), Luol Deng (MIA), Ben McLemore (SAC), Patrick Patterson (TOR), Victor Oladipo (ORL)|
|Doubtful||Ryan Kelly (LAL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Alan Anderson (WAS)|
|Out||Chandler Parsons (DAL), Andre Iguodala (GSW), PJ Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Tyson Chandler (PHX), Kawhi Leonard (SAS), Zach Randolph (MEM), Deron Williams (DAL), Dirk Nowitzki (DAL), Devin Harris (DAL), Patty Mills (SAS), Boris Diaw (SAS), Danny Green (SAS)|
Editor’s Note (12:40 PM ET): Zach Randolph has been ruled OUT for Friday. This will be Randolph’s 8th missed game in March and JaMychal Green ($4,700) should benefit the most as he’s averaged over 30 DK FPPG this month with Z-Bo sidelined.
Editor’s Note (3:00 PM ET): Dirk Nowitzki, Devin Harris and Deron Williams are all OUT tonight for the Mavericks. The game in Golden State should quickly turn into a blowout and there’s definitely a negative impact on some of the Warriors stars here as well. But for the Mavericks, it looks like JJ Barea will be the primary beneficiary. Barea has averaged 37.5 DK points in two games this season where both Deron Williams and Devin Harris sat out. Dwight Powell ($3K) has averaged over 21 fantasy points per game with Dirk out this season and stands to benefit in his absence as well.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs and Mudiay thrives in matchups against weak teams. He recently put up 51.25 DKFP against a similar 76ers defense. Mudiay has a usage rate of 22% and is averaging 25 DKFP per game on the season. The issue with Mudiay has been his inconsistency. He posted a 14 DKFP performance the game before his 51.25 point outing. For this reason, I think he makes for a great GPP play tonight.
WORST – Brandon Jennings/Elfrid Payton(ORL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Jennings was a great value flier with Payton sidelined by injury. However, even though Jennings is still starting, Payton is back and seeing the bulk of the minutes. Jennings has had back-to-back single digit DKFP performances and Payton put up 53 DKFP off the bench last game. I like Payton as a guy that could fly under the radar due to his “off the bench” status but Jennings is one to avoid tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Devin Booker (PHO) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing SGs. Booker is one of my favorite plays on the night and should be very popular in the DFS universe. He put up 45.75 DKFP last game, and he’s currently boasting a usage rate of 23%. Against a weak Kings defense, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a couple of Booker/Knight stacks on the evening.
“Oladipo was on fire for a stretch of games, but he has slowly come back down to Earth”
WORST – Victor Oladipo (ORL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 3rd against opposing SGs. Oladipo was on fire for a stretch of games, but he has slowly come back down to Earth recently. However, he is still seeing a usage rate of 24% and logging over 35 MPG. I am glad that his price has come back down, but I don’t think he reaches his season average of 32.1 DKFP against the Heat. For that reason, I am staying away from him tonight, as I think there are better options.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Jakarr Sampson (PHI) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. Sampson has recently been getting starts for the 76ers but he put up just 14 DKFP in his last outing. Despite the strong matchup, his 13% usage rate means you should look elsewhere for a SF play tonight.
WORST – Matt Barnes (MEM) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs, mainly due to Kawhi Leonard’s ability to shut players down. However, Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out of tonight’s game with a quad contusion, which certainly opens the door for Matt Barnes to produce. With all of the injuries to the Grizzlies, Barnes has become one of the main scorers. He has a usage rate of 15% and is averaging about 30+ DKFP over the last month. With Leonard out, I like Barnes a lot tonight.
|Player Targets||Levitan's Leverage||Cheat Sheet|
|Game Breakdowns||Click For More||Tournament Plays|
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Jon Leuer (PHO) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Leuer has been great over the last two games and will get the same opportunity tonight with Tyson Chandler out. I have him projected at 35+ DKFP, and he is one of the best values on the night.
WORST – Aaron Gordon (ORL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 3rd against opposing PFs. Gordon went through a short dry spell, but exploded for 32 DKFP last game. He has a usage rate of 18% and is seeing about 30 MPG. I have him projected slightly under his season average tonight and feel like there are better options at the position.
BEST – Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing centers. Jokic has been a strong play over the past month, and he is seeing over 25 MPG with a usage rate of approximately 20%. He has the ability to go for 50 DKFP on any given night, but I think he comes in around 30 DKFP this evening. This makes him a great GPP play at his price, as his ceiling is extremely high.
“He is seeing over 25 MPG with a usage rate of approximately 20 percent”
WORST – Tim Duncan (SAS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are ranked 4th against opposing centers. Duncan should get a lot of opportunity tonight, due to Spurs sitting out. He is seeing an on court usage rate of 15% and has been seeing close to 20 MPG. I think he sees closer to 25+ minutes tonight and puts up about 30 DKFP. The Grizzlies have not been the same in the post since Marc Gasol went out for the season.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,300)- Cousins sat out last game due to a knee bruise, but he is probable for tonight. Cousins will take back his massive 34% usage rate tonight against a weak Suns frontcourt. When Cousins is on the floor, he is as consistent as they come, and he is always a threat to post a massive DKFP total. I have him projected at 50+ DKFP tonight, and with the extra rest, he could even go for more.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jon Leuer ($4,100) – Leuer is a guy that has capitalized on an injury to Tyson Chandler, who is out due to back issues. Leuer has put up 36 and 44 DKFP in the last two games respectively. He should have a usage rate of about 20% tonight in a great matchup. I have him projected at 35+ DKFP on the evening, making him another great value start.
Dud of the Night
Rudy Gay ($6,200) – Gay was a total disappointment last game with DeMarcus Cousins sidelined. He only put up 18 DKFP in 32 minutes. This is very discouraging due to the usage that opens up for him when Cousins is out. Gay has had a string of 5 bad games and is definitely in a slump. With Cousins probable tonight, I have Gay projected at 30 DKFP, with a usage rate of about 18%. Both are well below his season average.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points