Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Rockets vs. Thunder- This game presents us with the highest total of the night at 223.5, as it has the highest pace. The Rockets will have to wait and see if Harden plays due to a sprained ankle. This has led to a questionable tag for him and his 32% usage rate. If he gives it a go, he will have an ideal matchup, and I have him projected at 50 DKFP. The Thunder are in the same boat, with Kevin Durant questionable due to an elbow injury. If Durant sits, Russell Westbrook will have a usage rate of about 50% and will be a lock to score an unimaginable amount of fantasy points.
LOW O/U – Hornets vs. Nets- My Hornets pulled off a great win last against the Spurs. This game has one of the lower totals on the night at 209. The Hornets will look to Kemba Walker for offense tonight. He had a rough 12 DKFP outing last night, but should use his 25.5% usage rate to produce about 40 DKFP tonight. Brook Lopez is probable for the Nets and has one of the better matchups on the slate. Lopez is seeing about 34 mpg and is averaging 35 DKFP this season. I think he comes in right at his season average tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Heat vs. Pelicans- The HOU/OKC game has the highest pace on the night, but this game comes in 2nd with a projected game pace of 98.9. Hassan Whiteside has one of the best matchups on the night against a Pelicans team that can’t defend centers. Whiteside is still coming off of the bench, but he is seeing over 30 mpg and has a usage rate of 21%. He is projected at 45 DKFP and has the matchup to definitely hit this mark. The Pelicans are shutting everybody down and are leaving Jrue Holiday all alone. Holiday is seeing a usage rate of 35% and is averaging 42 DKFP without Anthony Davis. He is projected at 40+ tonight and is a great play per his price tag.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Lakers- This game is the slowest on the evening, with a projected game pace of 98.25. The Grizzlies have welcomed Zach Randolph back with open arms and are riding his 26.8% usage rate to the promise land. Randolph put up 60 DKFP 2 games ago and had 37 DKFP last night. I have him projected at 35+ DKFP tonight which will exceed value. The Lakers have become a tough to peg, as there is no guarantee who will go off on a nightly basis. Kobe Bryant is questionable (of course), and the 2 rookies (Randle/Russell) are too inconsistent to trust. I am more apt to target the Rockets/Thunder game.
|Probable||Brook Lopez (BKN), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN), Kevin Durant (OKC), Steven Adams (OKC), Goran Dragic (MIA), James Harden (HOU), Kobe Bryant (LAL)|
|Questionable||Ryan Kelly (LAL)|
|Doubtful||Ryan Anderson (NO), Kyle SIngler (OKC), Norris Cole (NO)|
|Out||Anthony Davis (NO), P.J. Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Larry Nance, Jr. (LAL), Marvin Williams (CHA)|
Editor’s Note (6:25 PM ET): Marvin Williams is OUT on Tuesday. Frank ‘The Tank’ Kaminsky will draw the start in Williams’ place and is an intriguing play at just $3,100. Kaminsky hasn’t seen a ton of minutes this season but should play at least 20-25 tonight. The other boost goes to Cody Zeller ($3,500) who has 22 and 30 DK points in his last two games and is set to see a slight boost tonight as well.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Ray McCallum (MEM) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. The word is out on McCallum, which means he is becoming chalkier by the day. He has put up 25 DKFP over the last 2 games and easily hit value. I think he sees a 20% usage rate tonight and comes in at about the same total.
WORST – Jrue Holiday (NOR) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Throw the matchup out the window for this one, however, as Holiday has a usage rate of 35%. With Anthony Davis down for the count, Holiday is all of the Pelicans offense. He should score on demand tonight, and I have him projected at 40+ DKFP.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. New Orleans Pelicans- The Pelicans are ranked 26th against opposing SGs. Wade has a usage rate of 32% due to the injury to Chris Bosh. He has been great when he plays his full slate of 31 mpg, and I have him projected at 35 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Wayne Ellington (BKN) vs. Charlotte Hornets- The Hornets are ranked 14th against opposing SGs. Ellington is seeing 25+ mpg but is solely shot dependent. If he isn’t hitting shots, he isn’t scoring fantasy points. His low 15% usage rate isn’t very attractive tonight, and he is someone I am staying away from.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. Durant is questionable tonight, but if he plays he is a no brainer. He is averaging 50.5 DKFP a game, and I have him projected at 50+ tonight.
WORST – Trevor Ariza (HOU) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder are ranked 10th against opposing SFs. However, if Harden and Durant sit, then Ariza becomes a nice play. Ariza has a 20% usage rate with Harden out and should see about 30 DKFP tonight. Make sure you monitor injuries as Ariza could definitely become a play.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Serge Ibaka (OKC) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. Ibaka has been inconsistent this season and has a usage rate of only 17%. Even if Durant sits, I think that most of Ibaka’s usage will go to Enes Kanter. If you want to roll Ibaka out this evening, I would only do so in GPP’s.
WORST – Donatas Motiejunas (HOU) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder are ranked 8th against opposing PFs. Motiejunas has been a source of sneaky value over the last 2 games, putting up 35 and 24 DKFP respectively. If Harden sits tonight, Moti could see a usage rate of about 23%, and I’d project him at 25 DKFP.
BEST – Amar’e Stoudemire/Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. New Orleans Pelicans – The Pelicans are ranked 29th against opposing centers. Amar’e has been getting the start for the Heat, but he is only seeing a usage rate of 13.5% and is averaging 15 DKFP on the season. However, Whiteside is seeing over 30 mpg, and I have him projected at 40+ DKFP tonight.
“. . . Howard will be in a great spot to put up 40+ DKFP“
WORST – Dwight Howard (HOU) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder are ranked 4th against opposing centers. Howard is averaging 35 DKFP a game and has a usage rate of 15%. If Harden ends up sitting tonight, Howard will be in a great spot to put up 40+ DKFP.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($10,600) – Pending all of the injury news, this will be an extremely popular play tonight. Westbrook could see a 40%-50% usage rate if Kevin Durant sits. He also could see 60+ DKFP, as most, if not all, of the offense will run through him. Yes, everyone else will be playing him, but it is one of those nights where you don’t want to be the odd man out.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Omer Asik ($3,500) – Asik put up monster DKFP last game (to the tune of 35) with Davis and Anderson sidelined. Both guys are still out tonight, which means that Asik will see most of the low post time. Asik should have a usage rate of about 15%, and I’d project him at 25 DKFP tonight. You can’t overlook the value he provides tonight.
Dud of the Night
Lance Stephenson ($6,500) – Honestly, Lance looked like a goofball last night against the Suns. He only put up 16 DKFP and reverted back to the old Lance ways. With Randolph back from injury and Matt Barnes at full force, his usage has dropped down to about 20%. His erratic style and his ability to miss shots makes me want to miss him tonight. He is in a good spot, but likely won’t score you enough points to knock down a GPP.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points