Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Warriors vs. Timberwolves- The total in this game is a whopping 231.5, and the game has a spread of 11.5. After taking a loss against the Spurs, Steph Curry and Company will be looking to put on a show. Curry only had 34 DKFP last game, but this shouldn’t persuade you to look elsewhere. With a usage rate of 31% and seeing over 35 mpg, Curry has the potential to easily put up a 50 burger tonight. The Wolves will hope that their big rookie Karl-Anthony Towns can keep them in the game. Towns is seeing a usage rate of 26% and is averaging over 40 DKFP a game. I am extremely impressed with the Wolves and the young talent they have. It wouldn’t surprise me to see KAT put up 45+ DKFP tonight.
LOW O/U – Spurs vs. Hornets- The total in this one is 199.5 with a spread of 6.5. This game definitely won’t be as flashy as the Warriors game, but it should stay close. The Spurs will look to Kawhi Leonard’s 24% usage rate on offense to provide some scoring. Leonard put up 45 DKFP against the reigning World Champs and should see similar production tonight. The Hornets will lean heavily on Kemba Walker, who has put together a string of nice games (41 DKFP and 37 DKFP). I have him projected at 35+ DKFP tonight and should be able to hit that mark in about 40 minutes of court time.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Kings vs. Bulls- The projected game pace in this one is 102.9. DeMarcus Cousins should absolutely feast in this one and is projected as the highest fantasy scorer on the night. Cousins 34.4% usage rate is one of the highest in the league. I think he easily tops the 50 DKFP mark tonight. The Bulls are still riddled with injuries, but Jimmy Butler is in a great spot. Butler has seen his usage jump to about 28%, due to the Pau Gasol injury. I have Butler coming in at about 40 DKFP tonight, due to the uptempo pace and the matchup tonight.
LOW PACE – Nuggets vs. Cavaliers- The projected game pace in this game is the slowest on the evening at 95.5. The Nuggets are struggling to find a lead dog, and nobody really stands out. The only potential target for Denver is Will Barton. Barton has put up 23 and 24 DKFP over the last two games. I have him projected at 28 DKFP tonight and is a decent cash play. The Cavs are all about the 31% usage rate of King LeBron James. James will have a very easy matchup and should be a lock for about 45+ DKFP tonight.
|Probable||Jonas Jerebko (BOS), Bradley Beal (WAS), Marcin Gortat (WAS), Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC), Pau Gasol (CHI)|
|Questionable||Kenneth Faried (DEN), Ty Lawson (DEN)|
|Doubtful||Andrew Bogut (GSW), Richaun Holmes (PHI), Robert Covington (PHI)|
|Out||Jae Crowder (BOS), E'Twaun Moore (CHI), Jodie Meeks (DET), Andre Iguodala (GSW), PJ Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Chris Andersen (MEM), Jahlil Okafor (PHI), Ben McLemore (SAC), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Kevin Love (CLE)|
Editor’s Note (6:08 PM ET): Kevin Love is OUT tonight. Channing Frye ($3,600) will start in his place and had a 35.8 DK point effort when Love missed action back on March 10th. At that price, he’s certainly a strong option. Love’s absence also has a crowding out effect on LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. LeBron has averaged 47.77 DraftKings points and Kyrie Irving has averaged 42.93 DraftKings points with Love sidelined this season. The other beneficiary is potentially Tristan Thompson ($4,500) who should see a small uptick in minutes.
Editor’s Note (6:15 PM ET): Pau Gasol will play tonight on a minutes limit. He was doubtful all day and has missed significant time but his return to the Bulls lineup certainly detracts from some of the other Chicago players like Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. Both should see decreased usage with Pau on the floor but overall this isn’t a huge change given that Gasol is likely to be on a minute restriction.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Rajon Rondo (SAC) vs. Chicago Bulls- The Bulls are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Rondo had a rough 20 DKFP outing against New York yesterday. He will want to use his 18% usage rate to score more tonight. I have him projected at 40 DKFP in a fast paced matchup.
WORST – Brandon Jennings (ORL) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. Elfrid Payton was available yesterday, but Jennings got another start. Jennings will probably start again tonight and should see about 30+ minutes. He has a usage rate of 20% while on court, but I think the matchup will hinder his production. I think he comes in under value this evening at about 20 DKFP.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Jimmy Butler (CHI) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing SGs. Butler and Rose are the scorers for the Bulls with Pau Gasol sidelined. Butler will see a usage rate of about 30% tonight. Throw in a great matchup, and I have Butler projected at 40 DKFP. I think he is in a great spot to see high exposure tonight.
WORST – Courtney Lee (CHA) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Lee has been seeing about 30 mpg for the Hornets, but has a terrible usage rate of only 12%. He can’t be trusted to score points in a good matchup, so I would definitely stay away from Lee tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Paul George (IND) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. George is seeing over 35 mpg and has a usage rate of 30%. He is the 2nd highest projected SF on the evening at 45+ DKFP. He had a great 64 DKFP performance against the Thunder during his last game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him exceed value tonight.
WORST – Charlotte Hornets SF vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Nicolas Batum is listed as a SG, but he plays a big role in the Hornets offense and boasts a usage rate of 18%. He will likely see Kawhi’s elite defense tonight, as he has been running at SF lately with Kidd-Gilchrist on the shelf. He is averaging about 30 DKFP a game, but will have to work for all 30 tonight. I still think he comes in around value on the evening.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Taj Gibson (CHI) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Gibson has seen his usage rate jump from 12% to about 15% with Pau Gasol sidelined. However, Gibson isn’t an elite scorer and gets most of his fantasy scoring from boards/defensive stats. I think he hits value tonight but only comes in at around 25 DKFP.
WORST – Darrell Arthur (DEN) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Arthur has been getting the start for Faried and is averaging over 25 mpg. Even in a new spot, his usage rate of 15% isn’t enough to warrant him a play. I have him projected at about 20 DKFP tonight.
BEST – Ian Mahinmi (IND) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing centers. Mahinmi came back from injury last game and put up 17 DKFP in 35 minutes. This isn’t necessarily the points per minute number we are all looking for, but he has the opportunity to right the ship tonight. I think Mahinmi comes in over value at about 30 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing centers. Jokic has turned it on in March averaging about 30 DKFP a game. This has made his price jump to a basically unplayable range. With centers, you are looking for consistent scoring. Jokic is seeing a 21% usage rate, but he hasn’t been the model for consistency. I think his ceiling is around 35 DKFP tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,400)- We are going to Boogie again tonight. Cousins put up 62 DKFP last night. He gets another great matchup against the Bulls tonight, and he should go for over 55 DKFP tonight. Cousins has the highest usage rate in the league, which should be on display tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jared Sullinger ($5,500) – Sullinger finally got back on track last night with a 38 DKFP performance. Sully is seeing over 30 mpg and has a usage rate of 24%. I have him projected at 35 DKFP tonight and definitely think he can hit this mark.
Dud of the Night
Rudy Gay ($6,300) – Gay has put up a string of sub-25 DKFP games. He takes a backseat to DeMarcus and should do so again tonight. The matchup is a little better for him, but he is going to have to show me some consistency before I roll him out. He does have a usage rate of about 20%, but the shots are going to have to start falling. I have him projected at about 30 DKFP tonight, which is slightly under valued.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points