Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Celtics vs. 76ers- This is the highest total on the day at 215 with a spread of 11. Isaiah Thomas is in a perfect spot for the Celtics. He has a usage rate of 28% and is playing 35 mpg. Thomas is projected at 35+ DKFP today and should easily hit that mark. The 76ers will look to Nerlens Noel for point production. Since coming back from injury he has been fairly consistent and is posting about 30 DKFP a game. I have him projected at 30+ tonight, which he should be able to hit.
LOW O/U – Magic vs. Raptors- The total in this game is 210 with a spread of 9.5. The Magic are riddled with injuries, but Victor Oladipo has been great. Oladipo has put up 42, 45, and 67 DKFP in the last three games. With a usage rate of about 30% and seeing over 35 mpg, Oladipo should easily hit value again tonight. For the Raptors it is the Kyle Lowry show. Lowry has a usage rate of 25% and is a consistent 40 DKFP scorer. I think he goes for 45 DKFP tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Kings vs. Knicks- The projected game pace in this game is 100.2. The Kings will rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who has a usage rate of 37.7% He is the highest projected player on the day and should easily hit the 50+ mark. The Knicks also have a usage hog in Carmelo Anthony. Anthony has a usage rate of 29.3 and should also come in around the 50 DKFP mark tonight.
LOW PACE – Jazz vs. Bucks- The projected game pace is 92.2 in this one. The Jazz will look to Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert to produce their season average 30 DKFP. Gobert had an awful outing last night, only putting up 15 DKFP and will look to right the ship. The Bucks will be all about Giannis Antetokounmpo. A good friend of mine suggested that Giannis would be the 2016 MVP, with what I have seen over the last month this isn’t to far off base. Giannis is seeing a usage rate of 22% and is producing over 40 DKFP a game.
Note: Be sure to follow injury news throughout the day for the latest updates and statuses.
|Probable||Deron Williams (DAL), Wesley Matthews (DAL), CJ Watson (ORL), Rajon Rondo (SAC), Jonas Valanciunas (TOR)|
|Questionable||Jeff Green (LAC), Alexis Ajinca (NO), Kendrick Perkins (NO), Carmelo Anthony (NYK), Jose Calderon (NYK), Elfrid Payton (ORL), Omri Casspi (SAC), Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC), James Johnson (TOR), Patrick Patterson (TOR)|
|Doubtful||Jonas Jerebko (BOS), Richaun Holmes (PHI), Robert Covington (PHI)|
|Out||Chandler Parsons (DAL), Jae Crowder (BOS), Lance Thomas (NYK), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Jahlil Okafor (PHI), Ben McLeMore (SAC), Ryan Anderson (NO), Anthony Davis (NO), Norris Cole (NO)|
Editor’s Note (4:40 PM ET): Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis have both been ruled OUT for tonight’s game. This is a huge blow with Anderson expected to be one of the best options on the slate. Look for Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca (probable) to take almost all of the minutes on the interior. The Pelicans are incredibly thin today across the board and Jrue Holiday should see all of the offensive usage he can handle.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 26th against opposing PGs. Isaiah Thomas has truly played like an All-Star this season. He has a usage rate of 28% and should easily be able to hit the 35+ DKFP mark today.
WORST – Ish Smith (PHI) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing guards. Ish plays a big role on offense for the 76ers, with a usage rate of 22%. Since coming back to Philly, Ish has averaged 30 DKFP a game. He should come in close to his season average tonight against a tough defense.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Arron Afflalo/Sasha Vujacic (NYK) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing SGs. Vujacic has been getting the start, but Afflalo has been great in his bench role. Afflalo has a usage rate of 18% in the 2nd unit and should see about 25 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Khris Middleton (MIL) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Middleton has been remotely matchup proof this season, averaging over 30 DKFP a game. He has a usage rate of 20% and is the 2nd highest projected SG tonight. I am not afraid to roll him out in a tough matchup today.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Evan Turner (SG) (BOS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. With Jae Crowder sidelined due to injury, Turner has amassed his playing time at the SF spot. Turner is seeing a usage rate of 20% and is averaging 25 DKFP a game. I think he hits 25+ DKFP today and is an excellent value target.
WORST – Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Have no fear Giannis is here, Antetokounmpo has seen an uptick in usage since taking of PG responsibilities. He has a usage of about 25% and is averaging about 50 DKFP over the last 3 games. He is projected at 40 DKFP and if Jason Kidd doesn’t mess him up should exceed this total.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Kristaps seems to has hit the proverbial rookie wall, but he had a nice 36 DKFP performance last game. He is projected at 31 DKFP tonight and should easily reach this total.
WORST – Jabari Parker (MIL) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Parker has taken a backseat to Middleton and Antetokounmpo, but is still seeing a usage rate of 18%. He is projected at 27 DKFP tonight and should be able to hit value in this tough matchup.
BEST – Jared Sullinger (BOS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Sullinger is seeing over 30 mpg and has a usage rate of 20%. He has had 2 terrible back to back games, but has an opportunity to make it all better tonight. He is projected at 35 DKFP, but I like him solely as a tournament play on the evening.
WORST – Greg Monroe (MIL) vs. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing Cs. Monroe has a usage rate of about 20%, but has also taken a backseat to the Giannis show. He is projected at 30 DKFP tonight, which aligns with his season average. All of these Bucks guys could make for sneaky tournament plays.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,400)- You want an absurd usage rate and a guaranteed 50 burger, then look no further than Boogie. Boogie is a usage hog and is averaging 55 DKFP over the last 4 games. He is projected at this average tonight and has been one of the most consistent DKFP scorers all season. Once again I am all in on the Boogie.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Mason Plumlee ($4,400) – Plumlee disappointed me in his last matchup, only putting up 23 DKFP against a terrible New Orleans team. He gets Dallas today and should use his jump in usage (20%) to put up at least 25 DKFP. He should make for a nice source of value this evening.
Dud of the Night
Shelvin Mack ($6,200) – The Mack Attack has been phenomenal with Gordon Hayward sidelined. However, Hayward is back and Macks usage will drop tremendously. I think he goes back to an 18% usage and only posts about 25 DKFP tonight. With his price rising it will ultimately make him unplayable.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points