WATCH: 3 IN THE KEY – DEMAR DEROZAN
We’ve got a big-time 11-game slate to kick off the month of March. I’ll do my best to provide you the best and worst matchup focusing on statistics at each position, plus some bonus lineup building options.
Be sure to check in on the DK Live app throughout the day to monitor injury and lineup news. Another great way to help build your lineup is to tune in to DKTV at 6 PM EST for Pre Lock Live — a one hour show that will keep you posted on up to the minute news along with plenty of analysis.
Hit me up on Twitter with comments or questions: @julianedlow.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Darren Collison ($6,100) vs. Brooklyn Nets – Collison’s been somewhat disappointing since Boogie was traded away, only going off on one occasion. The good news is that his salary’s come down $1,300 in the last week, and he’s starting to become more affordable. That big game he had last week happened to be 43 DKFP against the Nuggets — who rank 29th vs. PGs. The only team worse? Tonight’s opponent — the Nets.
WORST – Jeff Teague ($6,600) vs. San Antonio Spurs – Teague is coming off a nice game against a fast paced Houston squad, but he failed to reach value in his three previous games (all against tough PG competition). Tonight he’ll face the Spurs, who rank second in the league against PGs, and held Teague below 5X just before the All-Star break.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Seth Curry ($5,900) vs. Atlanta Hawks – SG is really interesting tonight. You’ve got James Harden ($11,700) priced down in a tough matchup on paper, but that’s a team he usually torches. Then with the way DeMar DeRozan ($9,300) is rolling, he’s tough to stay away from too, but the Wizards rank top-5 vs. SGs. Despite the matchups I like both those plays. However, the BKN/SAC game is by far the best SG matchup on both sides, so you can go after your favorite value play there. But just to give you a name — Curry should see a ton of minutes with Wes Matthews out, and he’s reached 6X value in three straight games. Atlanta has been below average vs. SGs this season.
WORST – Bradley Beal ($7,300) vs. Toronto Raptors – I don’t hate Beal tonight, but the combination of price and matchup are just a little too much for me. Beal’s salary has risen $500 since early in February, and the Raptors rank second in the league against opposing SGs. Beal’s inconsistencies always make him an intriguing GPP play, but that also comes with a low floor.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500) vs. Denver Nuggets – As mentioned, the Nuggets rank 29th in the NBA against PGs. That’s the matchup you get here with the Greek Freak, just slotting him in at SF. Even better, his salary is down $300 this week with an ideal bounce back matchup on tap tonight. Plenty of reason right there to love Giannis.
WORST – Andrew Wiggins ($7,400) vs. Utah Jazz/Paul George ($7,400) vs. San Antonio Spurs – Both of these guys are in brutal spots tonight, so it’s worth mentioning each of them. It’s nice to see Wiggins’ salary down $800, which is way more than I was expecting, but the matchup is still as bad as it gets against Utah — sitting atop the league in limiting SF production. PG13 doesn’t find himself in any better situation on the opposite end of a matchup with Kawhi Leonard ($8,600). A matchup with the Rockets brought George back to life, but he’d failed to reach value in his four previous games.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Anthony Davis ($10,400) vs. Detroit Pistons – Here’s a way to sneak another center into your lineup at forward. DeMarcus Cousins will be serving a suspension tonight, so it should be the AD show. Davis has easily exceeded value in his last two games, and he’s been scoring extremely well — posting 39 and 38 points respectively. Davis has a history of lighting up the Pistons — dropping an insane 59 points and 20 boards on them last season. He wasn’t too shabby against them this year either, posting a 31-12-2 line to go along with four blocks and two steals.
WORST – Gorgui Dieng ($4,900) vs. Utah Jazz – Dieng seems to have fallen out of favor just a little bit lately in Minnesota. His minutes have been slightly down over his last four games, failing to hit value in each outing besides a wild 142-130 game against Houston. A matchup with the Jazz will do him no favors, as they top the league in PF production allowed to opponents.
BEST – Rapid Fire! – Too many good center plays tonight to just list one, so here we go: Nikola Jokic ($8,800) had a huge bounce back game posting a triple-double against the Bulls with his salary the cheapest it’s been in months. His salary comes down another $100 tonight against a Bucks team that’s struggled against centers lately. Hassan Whiteside ($8,300) has finally gotten his groove back over the past five games. A matchup with the league-worst Sixers should help him keep that going. DeAndre Jordan ($7,000) dropped 55 DKFP in his last game and will face a rapid paced Houston team that’s allowing 68.6 DKFP to centers on average over the past five games. If you need a cheaper option, Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,500) has been filling in well for Boogie and has as good a matchup as anybody against Brooklyn.
WORST – Same Deal! – There are an equal number of centers in tough matchups tonight: Myles Turner ($6,000) struggled against the Rockets in his last game, which isn’t a good sign with the Spurs up next. Al Horford ($5,600) has been struggling to put up any kind of stats lately, and Cleveland has been thriving against centers. Nerlens Noel ($5,300) is still overpriced since he hasn’t broken out for Dallas yet. A matchup with Atlanta would be a difficult one for his first big game. Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000) has the toughest matchup on paper, so beware. If he can pull Rudy Gobert away from the hoop, he can spin this into a positive, though.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Anthony Davis ($10,400) – I’ll give Davis the slight nod over Giannis just because of how he’s destroyed his opponent in the past, and the no Boogie factor. The Greek Freak is right behind him, though. Both these guys are in great spots and can be played at forward, which is a big deal.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
BKN vs. SAC – This Nets vs. Kings game is as star-less as it gets, but both teams are horrible defensively. This could be a fantastic game to stack and squeeze out all the value.
Next Man Up
Khris Middleton ($5,500) – No big injury news to react to yet. In a way Davis and DeRozan are the next men up with Boogie and Lowry out. But Michael Beasley will be out for the Bucks and Middleton will get the start (after resting a game) and should play around 30 minutes. Given the matchup, there’s potential here.
Plenty of injury news is sure to open up lots of value, so make sure you check the DK Live app prior to lock for all the latest breaking news regarding injuries, lineups and analysis.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.