Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Nuggets vs. Hornets- This game has a game total of 217.5 and a spread of 8.5. The Nuggets will try to let Nikola Jokic loose to see if he can put up another 50 burger. Jokic has a usage rate of 20% and is seeing about 30 mpg. I wouldn’t mind rolling him out as a flier, as my Hornets have struggled against true bigs. The Hornets will be run by the Kemba show. Kemba is projected at 40+ DKFP tonight and will use his 26% usage rate to score all the points tonight.
LOW O/U – Clippers vs. Grizzlies- The total in this game is 200 and the spread is 10. The Clippers should easily dominate with the Grizzlies being stricken by the injury bug. Chris Paul will use his 30% usage rate to put up about 45 DKFP. The interesting factor here is the Matt Barnes and Lance Stephenson revenge games. I wouldn’t put it past both this guys to show off and try to throw up 30+ tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Rockets vs. Hawks- The projected game pace in this one is 101.1. I told you to play the Beard last night and if you did you were rewarded with a 50 burger. The Beard is projected at 55+ tonight and should easily get there with a usage rate of 32%. The Hawks will rely on Paul Millsap. Millsap has a great matchup and a usage rate of over 20%. I love where he comes in at as well.
LOW PACE – Cavaliers vs. Heat- The projected game pace in this one is 93. This is always an interesting game, due to the Lebron/Wade history. Being in Miami, Lebron will try to put up 50+ DKFP and should reach that mark tonight. Wade will look to rebound from a 21 DKFP performance against the Hornets and use his 33% usage rate to put up 30+ tonight.
Note: Be sure to follow injury news throughout the day for the latest updates.
|Probable||Kent Bazemore (ATL), Spencer Hawes (CHA), Aaron Brooks (CHI), Taj Gibson (CHI), Reggie Jackson (DET), Ty Lawson (IND), Luol Deng (MIA), Jose Calderon (NYK)|
|Questionable||Cody Zeller (CHA), Ian Mahinmi (IND), Matt Barnes (MEM), Vince Carter (MEM), Gordon Hayward (UTA), Alan Anderson (WAS), Bradley Beal (WAS)|
|Doubtful||Kenneth Faried (DEN), Jodie Meeks (DET), Andrew Bogut (GSW), Zach Randolph (MEM)|
|Out||E'Twaun Moore (CHI), Pau Gasol (CHI), Andre Iguodala (GSW), PJ Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM)|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Shelvin Mack (UTAH) vs. Chicago Bulls- The Bulls are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. The Mack Attack has been great with Gordon Hayward sidelined. He is seeing over 30 mpg and a usage rate of 25%. His back to back 40 DKFP performances have been awesome and I think he goes for 30+ DKFP tonight.
WORST – Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing guards. Irving has been great since his return from injury, but is only projected at 30 DKFP tonight. His season average is around the same total and he has a usage rate of 20%. I think he comes in undervalue tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Courtney Lee (CHA) vs. Denver Nuggets- The Nuggets are ranked 27th against opposing SGs. Lee has transitioned well with the Hornets, but is still the same old defensive guard. He is averaging about 30 mpg, but has failed to go over 20 DKFP in the last 4 games. His usage rate of 14% isn’t very promising and this makes him basically unplayable for me.
WORST – Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. This half of the splash brothers went ham last night putting up 59 DKFP. This isn’t close to his average of 30 DKFP a game and should be looked at as one of his 1 in 20 games. Klay’s inability to fill up the rest of the stat sheet always makes me weary of playing him. He is projected at 30 DKFP tonight and I feel like he may come in under that projection.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Kent Bazemore (ATL) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing SFs. ‘Just Baze’ missed last game, but is probable for tonight. He is averaging about 25 DKFP a game and has a usage rate of 19%. He excels in great matchups and he has this type of matchup tonight.
WORST – Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Barnes is the 4th option for the Warriors and has to face Kawhi Leonard. Barnes is seeing over 30 mpg, but only has a usage rate of 14%. I have him projected at about 20 DKFP tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Paul Millsap (ATL) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. Millsap is the premier player for the Hawks and is seeing over 37 DKFP a game. He has a usage rate of 20.1% and is projected at 45+ DKFP tonight.
WORST – Taj Gibson (CHI) vs. U tah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Gibson was questionable the last game, but gave it a go and put up 27.5 DKFP. Pau Gasol is out which means Gibsons usage will be at about 15% tonight and he is projected at about 25 DKFP. I just think there are better options at the PF position tonight.
BEST – Rudy Gobert (UTAH) vs. Chicago Bulls – The Bulls are ranked 25th against opposing Cs. Gobert has had a great season and is seeing an average of 30 DKFP a game. Over the last 3 years I have had an unspoken rule of always playing Cs against the Bulls. With over 30 mpg and a 12% usage rate, Gobert is Center elite tonight.
WORST – Amar’e Stoudemire (MIA) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. Stoudemire is getting the start for Miami, with Hassan Whiteside coming off the bench. Stoudemire is seeing about 15 mpg and a usage rate of 13%. If I had to choose a big man from this one it would easily be Whiteside, who can still hit value due to court time.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
John Wall (10,000)- Wall has been phenomenal over the last 2 games. He has posted 50+ DKFP in both performances. With a usage rate of 26.8% and an average of 36 mpg he will have ample opportunity to put up another 50 burger tonight. Obviously, with a lot of elite plays tonight you could pay up for Westbrook, Harden, and Durant. With Wall cheaper than all three I think he makes for a great contrarian play tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Marreese Speights (3,700) – Marreese has been great over the last 4 games and even put up 40+ DKFP against the Phoenix Suns. He is only playing an average of 20 minutes a game, but he has a usage rate of 29.1% during his court time. If Andrew Bogut has to sit tonight he could even see time at the 5, which would mean more opportunity for boards. At his price he is the first glance, best value of the day.
Dud of the Night
Marcin Gortat (6,800) – Gortat has seen his usage rate drop below 20% with the addition of Markieff Morris. Gortat is still averaging about 28 minutes a game, but is unfortunately not having the same impact. He came close to hitting value last game, but it was against a terrible 76ers team and it was the first time he put up over 30 DKFP in 5 games. His matchup with Robin Lopez won’t be any easier tonight and I see another under 30 performance.
DKFP = DraftKings Fantasy Points