Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Kings vs. Lakers- The total in this game is 217.5 with a spread of -2.5. DeMarcus Cousins went nuts one game back from suspension and put up 61.5 DKFP. He should see a similar total tonight against a Lakers team that struggles against PFs. He is averaging 50 DKFP a game and has a usage rate of 34. The real question for this game is will Kobe show us any consistency? Kobe put up a nice 39 DKFP game against the Cavs but then responded with a 17 DKFP dud the last game. When he is on the court he boasts a usage rate of 32 but a lot of this usage results in missed shots. Due to the matchup, some GPP exposure wouldn’t be bad for the retiree tonight.
LOW O/U – Clippers vs. Spurs- The lowest scoring game on the slate has an over/under of 200 and a spread of -9. The Clippers will continue to ride Chris Paul who had a 43.25 DKFP hiccup against the Cavs last game. Paul is averaging 30 minutes a game and is putting up an average of 45 DKFP in March. I look for him to hit a similar 45 DKFP total tonight. For the Spurs, Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge have both been on fire lately. Both guys are averaging 40 DKFP a game and I have both projected to score around 40 DKFP tonight. On a short slate, I’d say they’re both in play.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Celtics vs. Pacers – The projected game pace in this one is 101.95; the highest pace on the night. The Celtics have been all Isaiah Thomas. IT2 is seeing over 30 minutes per game and has a usage rate of 29. He is projected at 35+ DKFP tonight and should easily see this total. The Pacers are hoping that Paul George will perform better than his 22.5 DKFP performance last game. If the Pacers hope to stay in the game and continue to compete for 8th in the East, he will have to produce closer to his 40 DKFP average tonight.
LOW PACE – Raptors vs. Bucks- The projected game pace in this one is 97.65. The Raptors are coming off of a devastating loss to the injury riddled Bulls. However, Kyle Lowry had a great performance last night, putting up 64.5 DKFP. I have Lowry projected at 40 DKFP tonight, but he should exceed value if Jonas Valanciunas is out, as his usage rate should jump to 25. The Bucks are all about Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been nothing short of amazing. The Greek Freak is averaging 53 DKFP in the month of March and should put up 40+ in a tougher matchup tonight.
|Out||Jae Crowder (BOS), Danilo Gallinari (DEN), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Jahlil Okafor (PHI), Michael Carter-Williams (MIL)|
|Doubtful||Jerami Grant (PHI), Robert Covington (PHI), Richaun Holmes (PHI), Jonas Valanciunas (TOR), Paul Pierce (LAC)|
|Questionable||Kelly Olynyk (BOS), Ty Lawson (IND), George Hill (IND), Elfrid Payton (ORL), John Henson (MIL), Kobe Bryant (LAL)|
|Probable||Rodney Stuckey (IND), Brandon Jennings (ORL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Isaiah Canaan (PHI)|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Rajon Rondo (SAC) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Rondo is seeing over 36 minutes per game (mpg) and has a usage rate of 19. He is averaging about 40 DKFP a game this season and should see close to his season average tonight.
WORST – George Hill (Questionable) (IND) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs, thanks in large part to Isaiah Thomas. George is questionable tonight with a toe injury. However, even if he suits up his 14.1 usage rate and 25 DKFP a game won’t get it done.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Victor Oladipo (ORL) vs. Denver Nuggets- The Nuggets are ranked 26th against opposing SGs. Oladipo has averaged 32 mpg this season but only saw 23 last game. If he gets his full gambit of minutes (like I fully expect), I have him projected to get to 35+ tonight. I believe that he will hit this mark due to matchup alone.
“If he gets his full gambit of minutes (like I fully expect), I have him projected to get to 35+ tonight”
WORST – J.J. Redick (LAC) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Redick has a decent usage rate of 19.2 with Blake Griffin sidelined. Unfortunately, Redick is too real point scoring dependent. I like playing SGs that can fill up every stat category and Redick’s low peripheral stat count won’t be enough.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Rudy Gay (SAC) vs. Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. Gay is seeing 34 mpg and a season average 32 DKFP. I honestly feel like this is DvP trap game for Gay, as Cousins and Rondo look to be in the better spots.
WORST – Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. Toronto Raptors- The Raptors are ranked 3rd against opposing SFs. However, Antetokounmpo has been a matchup killer this month and is averaging 53 DKFP. He is playing 35+ minutes a game and is seeing a usage rate of 20, which means he is still one of the best SF options on the evening.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Julius Randle (LAL) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. Randle makes for a very consistent cash play, as he is averaging 30 DKFP a game. He is seeing about 28 mpg and has a usage rate of 18. He may be slightly under owned tonight, which could also make him GPP worthy.
WORST – Jabari Parker (MIL) vs. Toronto Raptors – The Raptors are ranked 4th against opposing PFs. Parker has hovered around value in the last 6 games. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight and worry that he may even come in under value if his usage rate of 17 drops. With other PFs in better spots, I am staying away from Parker.
Dig Deeper into Tuesday Night’s NBA Slate
|Player Targets||Cheat Sheet||Game Breakdowns|
|Small Slate Stars (Video)||Tournament Plays|
BEST – Brook Lopez (BKN) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing centers, and they don’t really seem to want to get better. Lopez had a decent outing two games ago against the 76ers, posting 39.75 DKFP. He is averaging 38 DKFP a game and should see about 40+ tonight.
“Jordan is seeing a usage rate of about 13, but can fill up a stat sheet with boards”
WORST – DeAndre Jordan (LAC) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 4th against opposing centers. Jordan is seeing a usage rate of about 13, but can fill up a stat sheet with boards. I have him projected at 35+ DKFP tonight, and I can see him easily reaching that number.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,500)- DeMarcus went crazy last game, posting 61.5 DKFP, and he will want to continue that trend tonight. I have him projected at 55+ DKFP, but I could see him reaching that 60+ DKFP mark tonight in a great matchup. I am all about the Boogie tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Tim Duncan ($4,500) – Duncan will be needed to contain DeAndre Jordan tonight. He is averaging 25 mpg and is still posting decent numbers (25.8 DKFPPG). I think he comes in close to 30 DKFP tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kenneth Faried ($6,200) – Faried has been hot and cold lately. He put up 42 DKFP last game, but I only have him projected at 26 DKFP tonight. The uncertainty with his playing time (averaging 25 mpg) worry me tonight.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points